Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 I see what we are looking at now. Thanks for the clarification, although wouldn't this be beneficial for another vortex visit at some point this winter? Sure... a visit to the Yukon River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Isn't 4 months enough time to see some big changes there? Also, would a couple of strong hurricanes in the west Pacific have any effect on those ocean surface temps that far north? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Where in that decadal state are we? Near the end? I dunno..the state that started in the late 90s or maybe mid 2000's?...has been weird....presumably we'd be in it for a while, though it has been easy to go positive at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 It fluctuates quite a bit anyway and not sure it will kill us either...The decadal state is probably still negative though... Absolutely. In total scope and hope mode but not worried about anything yet. First and foremost, lets see if this push towards upping 3.4 helps. 3 months ago, every model including the Cras had us in the 1.0+ range by this time. If we can get the nino going, pdo becomes less worrysome either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Absolutely. In total scope and hope mode but not worried about anything yet. First and foremost, lets see if this push towards upping 3.4 helps. 3 months ago, every model including the Cras had us in the 1.0+ range by this time. If we can get the nino going, pdo becomes less worrysome either way. we have plenty of time...I won't cancel nino until late September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 The big snow years all make sense The Ninos - 1957, 1963, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2009 The neutrals that had nino-esque patterns - 1959, 1960 The neutrals/weak nina that flooded the northern plains with cold air that bled east, and had blocking - 1966, 1978, 1981, 1995 and then 2013 which looks like none of those....total fluke...nobody in DC should want that pattern again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Sure... a visit to the Yukon River 9Ob8DujmAC.png So...this might be a stupid question, but if the Alaska ridge holds this winter, would that matter at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 So...this might be a stupid question, but if the Alaska ridge holds this winter, would that matter at all?It matters but it depends on how it works in tandem with other features in the circulation. It's far from an end all be all. We can do just fine without it as well.It really shines when it teleconnects in the PNA region. -AO really helps deliver the cold air. Like Matt said. We don't want to hope for the same pattern again. We got really lucky and maximized. Super progressive and limited blocking seasons usually end up pretty bad around here. Even with the polar vortex from hell we warmed up within just a couple days after each shot. We just had a lot of shots and timed a lot of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Frankly, I think the PDO is somewhat overrated. Seems to be driven by the pattern more than anything else. We had some great winters back in the 60s/70s with the -PDO present, and some horrific winters back in the early/mid 1990s with a steady +PDO and multi-year El Niño(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Frankly, I think the PDO is somewhat overrated. Seems to be driven by the pattern more than anything else. We had some great winters back in the 60s/70s with the -PDO present, and some horrific winters back in the early/mid 1990s with a steady +PDO and multi-year El Niño(s). Agreed. Placing of the anomalies is more important than the index itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Frankly, I think the PDO is somewhat overrated. Seems to be driven by the pattern more than anything else. We had some great winters back in the 60s/70s with the -PDO present, and some horrific winters back in the early/mid 1990s with a steady +PDO and multi-year El Niño(s). I don't think any of us regulars think the PDO is a primary driver. Overall though, a +PDO is better for EC cold and snow vs -PDO. Years with a -PDO have a much easier time flooding the conus with PAC air but not always of course. It's something to be wary of and not fearful. I don't put nearly as much stock in it as I do the AO. The 60's were dominated by a -AO. 8 out of 10 winters featured a -ao for 2 out of the 3 met winter months. Conversely, the 90's had a bunch of +AO months during winter. 93-94 and 95-96 were the outlier years on the means and they were the 2 best. The AO is definitely a primary driver at our latitude. I'm fearful of a big +AO in any winter month. Combine a big +AO with a -PDO year and I'll cancel faster than Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 Frankly, I think the PDO is somewhat overrated. Seems to be driven by the pattern more than anything else. We had some great winters back in the 60s/70s with the -PDO present, and some horrific winters back in the early/mid 1990s with a steady +PDO and multi-year El Niño(s). The good 60s winters were either Ninos or neutrals with great setups...the one winter (60-61) without good blocking, had a nino-like setup with great cold delivery, 50-50 low, big low anomaly south of the aleutians, and robust southern stream...last winter was the worst setup of any big snow winter going back to the 1940s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 If we stay neutral, we'll probably see something like this in the means, which is perfectly capable of producing 15"+ at DCA...But this is just a WAG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The good 60s winters were either Ninos or neutrals with great setups...the one winter (60-61) without good blocking, had a nino-like setup with great cold delivery, 50-50 low, big low anomaly south of the aleutians, and robust southern stream...last winter was the worst setup of any big snow winter going back to the 1940s... But what caused those -PDO/ENSO-neutral years to feature such great longwave setups? And, why did the 1988-1995 period lack that, despite the +PDO/Niño barrage? Looking more closely, the major difference I found was in the Atlantic, ironically. It seems we tend to see more of the feast/famine thing during the +AMO phase, while our winters tend to be colder/snowier overall during the -AMO phase despite fewer in the way of individual blockbusters. I'm not sure why this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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