IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 57, much better looking than the NAM, one low pressure system developing over LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs pretty similar through 42, polar vortex is slightly slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My quick thoughts on the NAM: 1. Any changes, both at 500 mb and the surface were marginal. 2. Rather than focusing on that model's details in the extended range, I'm far more interested in the changes that took place. They were very small and, if this continues in subsequent runs, that might be a hint that the guidance will begin to stabilize (as should be the case as the event draws closer). 3. The evolution on the 18z GFS could provide a further hint as to whether things are moving toward a point where the models will eventually lock in on a solution. Overall, I still don't have changes from my thinking that the NYC area will more likely see a light or moderate accumulation of snow than little or no snow. Odds of a larger snowfall have increased somewhat, but from this far out, I want to see more than the operational ECMWF backing that outcome. It did. The operational showed 12-18 inches of snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 63 light snow developing over the area, low down in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The trough is a bit less amplified than 12z. Not exactly what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 72-75, low pressure popping offshore NC. This is going to have to turn fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It did. The operational showed 12-18 inches of snow for NYC. Don said "I want to see more than the operational ECMWF backing that outcome." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 78 this kicks OTS Everything comes together too late. Disappointing run. We still get some of that wrap around but it's not nearly as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why is it the 18z gfs is aways different from the 12z all most all the time never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 87 it has a double barreled low CCB developing overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 87 it has a double barreled low CCB developing overhead Yes, looks really weird to me, I think it is haveing feedback issues. IF the energy was consolidated it would show a EURO type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 gfs bias. same thing happened with the bds. it may be pushing the cold air too far south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Should wait to say OTS till this finishes. 12z had the same pair of lows with one scooting out. Seems convective issues with the two low presentation. Still plenty of snow here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Long Island special, the storm is nearly stationary from hours 81 through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I guess until everything is over land we will keep getting these wide range of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 87 it has a double barreled low CCB developing overhead Geez. Seriously GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 87 it has a double barreled low CCB developing overhead Hour 90, main part of the CCB is NYC east. While it's still good for me. I'd like to see it more west. Abnormal how a second low forms as the first one kicks OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Snowing well into Friday morning, sub 992mb low hour 93 400 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z GFS most likely having convective feedback issues. its continued the amped up trend but was befuddled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even a bad run is 4-8" NYC - SE and 8-12" NE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This needed to come together sooner and it would have been beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can anyone suggest a good free model website? The NOAA website is always late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This needed to come together sooner and it would have been beautiful. I know, but this has CFI written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can anyone suggest a good free model website? The NOAA website is always late instantweathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can anyone suggest a good free model website? The NOAA website is always late http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This needed to come together sooner and it would have been beautiful. I appreciate you doing the model call that was really disjointed. I wish I had the knowledge to do it. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can anyone suggest a good free model website? The NOAA website is always late http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 what will be interesting to watch is the duration of snow too. When those .1-.2 clips of QPF are falling into Friday, it's BRUTALLY cold in some areas. Really intriguing storm we have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS clown maps are 10-12" through LI. 12"+ on north fork. About 8" for NYC. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 bottom line the GFS besides what looks like CFI trended in the right direction folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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