12Z models 12/18/10

[VAsnowlvr82]

Can somebody do qpf numbers for impacted cities when they are available. Thanks!

[WhiteoutWX]

180 HRS LOW FLIES OFF NC COAST 500 Low does NOT close off

Looks like the Euro has a secondary northern stream shortwave dropping into the trough that doesnt allow this to amplify in time. I would watch that to see if it shows up in future runs.

[Guest someguy]

imo what the euro and GGM are saying is that the western us ridge is too far east ...

sure the S/Ws do phase and amplify on this run but the euro says the phase occurs well EAST of the Mississipp river

this means the sc LOW is too far east and runs " out bounds " when it tries to make a NE or N turn

[mdsnowlover]

complete redo only this time no big storm shown. Wonder if the reverse will now hold true.???Or same old thing??

[Guest someguy]

Can somebody do qpf numbers for impacted cities when they are available. Thanks!

according to the images NOTHING more of RIC

personally I remain VERY skepitcal that this s/w is going to DIG this far south...

I think it wil NOT close off and Bomb out as the 12z GFS is showing BUT a track thru say central or northern VA seems far more likely to me

which would be a Miss for RIC and ORF .... and more snow for DCA BWI PHL s NJ

[jlewis1111]

according to the images NOTHING more of RIC

personally I remain VERY skepitcal that this s/w is going to DIG this far south...

I think it wil NOT close off and Bomb out as the 12z GFS is showing BUT a track thru say central or northern VA seems far more likely to me

which would be a Miss for RIC and ORF .... and more snow for DCA BWI PHL s NJ

which would mean rain for ric then correct

[needbiggerboat]

for laughs only, a few 12z gfs snowfall numbers from bufkit through 7pm xmas day:

IAD 24.4

DCA 33

RIC 22.3

BWI 23.1

[Guest someguy]

for laughs only, a few 12z gfs numbers from bufkit through 7pm xmas day:

IAD 24.4

DCA 33

RIC 22.3

BWI 23.1

arwe those temps? inches ? mm? what

[needbiggerboat]

arwe those temps? inches ? mm? what

inches.

[jlewis1111]

bank it. Not coming back on here till Friday. Done deal lol

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

inches.

lol pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

[usedtobe]

The better looking version of the euro 168hr forecast says the snow get up to dec. It usually gets up to where the 500 or 700h contours show confluence and the RH is well north of DC with the vort going just to the south.

[Ian]

Euro gives whole area (DC/MD/VA/DE) except perhaps ne MD, N DE .1"+ with .25"+ over much of VA except the NOVA area... .5"+ sw and se va.

[Terpeast]

I'm gonna be out this weekend, and won't see the models until Monday morning. Can't wait to see what they show then.

[Guest someguy]

12Z EURO ENSEMBLES ...better looking than I thought... matches the 0z euro ensemble mean closely

[psuhoffman]

With the different set up for this system I like to see the euro and ggem a little bit south right now. Of course I would rather the euro showing a huge hit and the GFS be the one slightly south but still the common error of models in general from a week out is to be too far south with troughs and h5 features over CONUS. That is why I was trying to explain that some were confusing the "north" trend we usually get with a "west" trend, which is a lot less common. It somethings seems like a west trend simply because the coast curves eastward as it heads north and thus a north trend also brings snow further inland as you head up the coast. In this last event the h5 trough did trend north and that is part of the reason the phasing didn't occur and the southern feature just slides OTS. We actually needed the trough to trend west and the h5 to dig more....we were rooting for the opposite trends of what usually happen in some ways. This time having some models showing the h5 energy going south is a good thing as odds are it will trend north over time. I am infinitely more optomistic about the potential with this system then the last.