Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

Recommended Posts

Changeover once again delayed but not denied. The 12z NAM-HIRES probably not all snow for southside HR until after 7p but even stronger on the thumping around 10pm with very cold temps so it will definitely accumulate. I would say a quick 2-3 for southside HR is looking good and the bay effect could add a bit to that early AM Wed. for those south of the bay.

Yes. Not much wasted though. Start out with some sprinkles maybe light rain. Then the juice starts to swing in with cold.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Should be interesting here in the RIC metro. The original evolution of the system was better for us (more of a strict clipper with some Atlantic interaction) but now that is has become a true hybrid with more amplification things are trickier. I'd say we're good for 2-3" throughout central VA with localized amounts of 3-6". 850 low track is right over or just SE of downtown meaning small shifts will make a big difference. HPC likes a look closer to the Euro but who knows at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z NAM-HIRES actually has a 4 inch band from VB back southwest to just a little north/northwest of Eliz. City. Due to that superband forecasted for around 10pm tomorrow night. GFS right around 1.5-2 so 2-4 sounds like the way to go right now.

This will be the money maker for us. Hires sim has a nice 35-40 dbz band over top us.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

RPM trying to show some banding and brief periods of heavy snow over SE VA

RPM looks sick, but is it the favored model for area?

I know it is not a global model so it makes me wonder if the RPM is seeing the same variables as the NAM and GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I suppose this continues to look worse and worse for us since there's no activity in this thread?

over the past few days a lot has happened/ changed. We are now looking good because of a developing wrap around band. Without that we would be looking at .5-1". With it 2-3". Maybe more.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And see, I'm unsure of what to expect here, because when people talk about the southside, they're mostly referring to the metro. I live out in the sticks west of Franklin... So I don't know if I'm considered "Hampton roads" or not.

ok. Go to twisterdata.com Use the snowfall maps to get an idea of what to expect in your area. Very easy to use.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And see, I'm unsure of what to expect here, because when people talk about the southside, they're mostly referring to the metro. I live out in the sticks west of Franklin... So I don't know if I'm considered "Hampton roads" or not.

 

I believe for statistical purposes you are Hampton Roads, but when I say HR re: weather I'm usually talking about the southside and peninsula (VB to Suffolk and up to NN)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here.

 

Agreed.  I, based on nothing, expect a WWA to be issued.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here.

Warning criteria for SE VA and NE NC is 3"+ in a 12hr period? Also new gfs shows what will happen if the band does not develop.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Point and click zone forecast hast he airport around 3 to 6".   Not so sure we can muster that unless ratios really help out.  I think we start off at a standard 10:1.. before improving a bit to 12.. to 15:1.  Doubt we'll get those 20:1 ratios in this area.  :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warning criteria for SE VA and NE NC is 3"+ in a 12hr period? Also new gfs shows what will happen if the band does not develop.

You know the GFS is a low res model.  NAM is handling this feature well.  The question is where exactly the banding sets up.  I've seen similar situations where NE NC got more than the Southside. Time will tell... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...