user13 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Here is the new SPC probabilities for Sunday: SPC Discussion: ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... A MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX...WITH 50-65 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 500 MB...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE EARLY DAY SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...CLOUD BREAKS AND POCKETS OF AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION ARE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT /AND IN VICINITY OF A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND STORM VIGOR TO SOME DEGREE...BUT EVEN SO...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING SPEED MAX...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY AS MUCH AS 40-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND MATURATION OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING BOWS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT /MAINLY EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND/ MAY EXIST AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 0z 4k NAm @ 45 - Storms die as they approach NYC though (lets hope that changes and we can keep the marine layer at bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 0z 4k NAm @ 45 - Storms die as they approach NYC though (lets hope that changes and we can keep the marine layer at bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Haha exactly (literally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Haha exactly (literally) You had made a pun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 12z 4k showing a nice bow echo hitting nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 12z 4k showing a nice bow echo hitting nyc 0-6km shear and 850mb-500mb lapse rates are pretty weak for severe in NYC, late tomorrow. But perhaps strong t-storms, could be sustained in a cold pool.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 18z 4k Nam still hits us pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 0z 4k is nice (every run has been getting better and better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Looks like the SPC upped the wind potential for Interior NJ, and some of the Burbs of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The 12z NAM still has weak shear and weak mid-level lapse rates for NYC metro area. I think we'll see isolated/pulse severe threat. While severe wx is more focused from Central Hudson Valley, northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Looks like pulse storms today with isolated severe esp. for inland locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 Looks like a small shower is comming our way here in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 NJ may be under a watch eventually per this Meso Discussion! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0937.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The Euro has some heavy rain potential tonight into very early tomorrow with possible training right along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Well the 4k from yesterday seems like a fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 The 4km NAM develops an area of very heavy rain along the front/convergence zone overnight into MOnday morning. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rad16.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Hmm yea, flash flooding will be a threat, looks like it will be over the area that was trained over early last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Tons of lightning off to my NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Yea saw that from queens...very energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Yea saw that from queens...very energetic That cell hit my area directly. Energetic indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Looks like a bunch more comming to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 This is a nice lightning show going on, some of the best in a while for me a, couple of cg strikes less than a 1/4 of a mile from me I instantly heard the thunder and the entire house shook, and a glass fell and broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 This is a nice lightning show going on, some of the best in a while for me a, couple of cg strikes less than a 1/4 of a mile from me I instantly heard the thunder and the entire house shook, and a glass fell and broke. Its really impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Heavy rain moving into the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Picked up 0.56" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Looks like we have a few heavy showers inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 There's an embedded thunderstorm with this brief downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 There's an embedded thunderstorm with this brief downpour. Yeah a decent little line seems to be forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 The line of thunderstorms/showers is associated with the Cold Front moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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