Game Changing News in Modeling

[Damage In Tolland]

@mikeseidel: Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction:

http://t.co/SKtvOeS57d

[weatherwiz]

Looking forward to it.  

[CoastalWx]

It's funny how they mention the day 8 forecast, yet the day 8 scores from the euro currently have been bad.

 

The GFS definitely needs a facelift and it's good to see the govt put funds where they are needed.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That just points to the appropriations towards computer upgrades nit to an upgrade in the actual physics of the model.  Until that is done the GFS will lag behind the Euro.

[CoastalWx]

That just points to the appropriations towards computer upgrades nit to an upgrade in the actual physics of the model.  Until that is done the GFS will lag behind the Euro.

 

The physics aspect of it will likely be looked at, but the upgrade in computer power would allow for a 4D Var type scheme.  The GFS actually does well with tropicals as is.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The physics aspect of it will likely be looked at, but the upgrade in computer power would allow for a 4D Var type scheme.  The GFS actually does well with tropicals as is.

except Sandy

 

I know they have a 4D-var hybrid in the works.  I'm anxious to see it in action.

[CoastalWx]

except Sandy

 

I know they have a 4D-var hybrid in the works.  I'm anxious to see it in action.

 

Yeah I think the delicate interaction of s/w's proved a flaw with the GFS. Despite it being tropical, the GFS had a hard time figuring out the s/w interaction.

 

To be fair, the Euro completely crapped the bed with Debbie last year in the GOM when it had it hitting Galveston like 6 days out or so. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah I think the delicate interaction of s/w's proved a flaw with the GFS. Despite it being tropical, the GFS had a hard time figuring out the s/w interaction.

 

To be fair, the Euro completely crapped the bed with Debbie last year in the GOM when it had it hitting Galveston like 6 days out or so. 

Yeah, by no means is modeling perfect.  That was a huge bust by the Euro.  We can all point to the spcific busts one way or another but on average around the globe, the GFS lags.  Time to step up to the plate and put that money to good use.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just imagine a day where we can look at any GFS run and actually be able to use it for a forecast whether that be SR or LR. Hopefully this isn't the govt blowing smoke

[ORH_wxman]

GFS has been deplorable in east coast cyclogenesis during the cold season pretty much over its lifespan. It has lagged behind the Euro an overwhelming majority of the time. A few rare exceptions, but of course there are always going to be outliers in a massive sample.

 

Globally, its not that much worse than the Euro with its Z scores in the medium range. Worse, but tolerable. Hopefully when they put some work into it, they can improve its ability in the northeast WRT cyclogensis during the cold season which is one of the most important forecasting aspects for any meteorolgist up here and to the general public.

[mattb65]

That just points to the appropriations towards computer upgrades nit to an upgrade in the actual physics of the model.  Until that is done the GFS will lag behind the Euro.

If you actually read the full article you'd see this part...

 

 

To make additional gains in the model’s accuracy, Uccellini said some of the Sandy supplemental funds will help pay for contract scientists to improve the model physics and to enhance the systems that bring in (or assimilate) data from ground weather sensors, satellites and weather balloons.