Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 for sure....i think it is still tops in this range as well? it is the tops in days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, & 10. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Yes, I would say that is one heck of a signal for a 9 day ensemble mean. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Yes, I would say that is one heck of a signal for a 9 day ensemble mean. Wow. Anyone remember the last time the ens had a BM snowstorm track at day 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The Euro control run bombs the day 9 storm out in Northern Virginia, down into the low 980's, then occludes it there, brining some temperature problems to our area, then it spins around Virginia then eventually slides due east and off the Delmarva where it then again continues to sit and spin, bringing us precipitation from Tuesday through Thursday of next week. I think we are now getting a decent idea of the potential, but just like last time, the devil is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I'm highly skeptical of snow past mid March but its interesting, gfs is very different. It has a few days of well below normal temps but then it warms after, no storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I'm highly skeptical of snow past mid March but its interesting, gfs is very different. It has a few days of well below normal temps but then it warms after, no storms. That's pretty normal for the GFS. The GFS should figure this out in about 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 That's pretty normal for the GFS. The GFS should figure this out in about 4 days. Today's 18z has already tremendously shifted towards the Euro solution. No more SE ridge garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I don't really see this run showing a major snowstorm, but it got rid of that SE ridge that 12z had, which is almost definitely going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Of course, post truncation, the GFS still finds a way to send a storm into the Lakes with a huge PV in SE Canada and a Greenland block. Yeah, not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The overrunning type storm showed up on the gfs, it's very weak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 18z GFS definitely trended a lot colder, which isn't a surprise given the blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS took a step towards EURO ad kept the PV in a good spot, it'll continue to look better most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS took a step towards EURO ad kept the PV in a good spot, it'll continue to look better most likely. Agreed. Pretty hard to get a lakes cutter with cutoff block over the davis straights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Nice to have the euro op and ens showing the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 With this storm (its 240 hrs out so its nothing but a figment of model imagination right now), the teleconnections and patterns would point to a potentially large storm. However, first I caution this is assuming the global paterns are modeled correctly. The MJO looks to be pushing back into phases 7-8, though if things are off it pushes onto phase 1. The NAO looks to be rather negative. Though not quite as negative as it just was with this last storm, and therefore perhaps it wont be shunted as far south. The PNA looks to allow for some fresh cold air, and this is the only reason I'm looking at the PNA for mid to late march as the ridging can easily be nullified by wavelengths. The biggest potential I see though, is that the Artic Jet is going to be dropping far enough south to lead to a potential (I am by no means saying this is fact) triple phase. With that and the traffic jam being created by the NAO across the continental US, this is a huge potential. Combine that with the fact that this is mid-March and the baroclyncinity available due to volatile temperature changes as well as the added energy the sun can add, has the potential to make this storm explode . However, while the pattern shows potential, to get a storm of amazing magnitude is very complicated. Furthermore, this is still 240 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Technically the EC storm (March 19th-20th) is beyond the dates of this thread (14th-18th). Maybe someone should edit the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Polar vortex over SE canada at 144hrs on the euro...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Man, that's a ripe look on the Euro developing from 144 to 168 hours. As a few of us had said earlier, the details are still to be determined...but that is one heck of a winter storm signal if I have ever seen one. You'd hope the Euro and the medium range ensemble guidance has a good hold on this general idea. The PV and 50/50 low are almost ideally positioned and there seems to be good agreement on Pac energy making its way into the Central US around that time as well. It's hard to say much with any certainty at this range...other than it seems like, from a long distance out, things have the potential of lining up very well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 180hrs, i absolutely love the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 180hrs, i absolutely love the look Most of us seem to be in agreement....if the Euro has the right idea (and it has some very good cards in its deck with the MJO forecasts and overall pattern progression over the next 5-7 days)...we're looking at a general MECS setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Most of us seem to be in agreement....if the Euro has the right idea (and it has some very good cards in its deck with the MJO forecasts and overall pattern progression over the next 5-7 days)...we're looking at a general MECS setup. It's absolutely classic, all of the ingredients are there and the cold air source is immense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 210 is purely incredible, havent seen this since boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Lol...down into the 970s at 210 hours with a Dec 2010-esq CCB sitting over NJ and NYC. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 We are talking feet of snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 sub 976mb se of montauk...unrealll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 We are talking feet of snow this run H5 low is closed off at 516dm underneath Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This is the best look we have seen on the modeling since 2010. It doesn't seem real. The GFS finds a weakness between the main PV lobe and the one that gets phased into it...thus bridges the SE ridge between that weakness and into the block. The GFS always likes to find rogue weaknesses during big blocking patterns...Sandy is a prime example of that. The Euro has pretty much all of Canada as a PV. It kinda seems more likely, though, considering the block is in Greenland and the Davis Straights, and not so far south. This is a way we can get our block and our cold air. Considering how strong this block is, I don't really see said weakness occurring. This helps keep the storm track to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 H5 low is closed off at 516dm underneath Long Island Overrunning to a coastal wreckage. It snows from 192-228 with temps 32 or under the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This is the best look we have seen on the modeling since 2010. It doesn't seem real. The GFS finds a weakness between the main PV lobe and the one that gets phased into it...thus bridges the SE ridge between that weakness and into the block. The GFS always likes to find rogue weaknesses during big blocking patterns...Sandy is a prime example of that. The Euro has pretty much all of Canada as a PV. It kinda seems more likely, though, considering the block is in Greenland and the Davis Straights, and not so far south. This is a way we can get our block and our cold air. Considering how strong this block is, I don't really see said weakness occurring. This helps keep the storm track to our south. The devil is in the details in this situation, especially at such a long range. I hate when storms like this are modeled so far out (even though the big ones always show up right where we are on the Euro and stay there for a few runs before disappearing) because people start looking at details way too early, and almost get an attachment to the storm. Much of what is occurring in regards to the Polar Vortex in Canada has to do with the extreme high latitude blocking that is being modeled, not just on the Atlantic side but on the Pacific side as well. The GEFS 500 hPa height anomalies are incredibly robust as early as 84 hours and this is a blocking episode that actually began a few weeks ago but it coming to a head of sorts over the next week or two. It is really important to remain cautious at this range because the models still are going to bounce back and forth a bit with the interactions between the two big ridges on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Greenland. The Euro and GEFS still differ greatly in handling those two features. The PV is going to slide underneath and elongate eventually. We also have to watch the de-amplification of the ridge out west as we move forward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.