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March Medium Range Discussion


nzucker

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The Euro control run bombs the day 9 storm out in Northern Virginia, down into the low 980's, then occludes it there, brining some temperature problems to our area, then it spins around Virginia then eventually slides due east and off the Delmarva where it then again continues to sit and spin, bringing us precipitation from Tuesday through Thursday of next week.  I think we are now getting a decent idea of the potential, but just like last time, the devil is in the details. 

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With this storm (its 240 hrs out so its nothing but a figment of model imagination right now), the teleconnections and patterns would point to a potentially large storm. However, first I caution this is assuming the global paterns are modeled correctly. The MJO looks to be pushing back into phases 7-8, though if things are off it pushes onto phase 1. The NAO looks to be rather negative. Though not quite as negative as it just was with this last storm, and therefore perhaps it wont be shunted as far south. The PNA looks to allow for some fresh cold air, and this is the only reason I'm looking at the PNA for mid to late march as the ridging can easily be nullified by wavelengths. The biggest potential I see though, is that the Artic Jet is going to be dropping far enough south to lead to a potential (I am by no means saying this is fact) triple phase. With that and the traffic jam being created by the NAO across the continental US, this is a huge potential. Combine that with the fact that this is mid-March and the baroclyncinity available due to volatile temperature changes as well as the added energy the sun can add, has the potential to make this storm explode . However, while the pattern shows potential, to get a storm of amazing magnitude is very complicated. Furthermore, this is still 240 hours out.

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Man, that's a ripe look on the Euro developing from 144 to 168 hours. As a few of us had said earlier, the details are still to be determined...but that is one heck of a winter storm signal if I have ever seen one.

 

You'd hope the Euro and the medium range ensemble guidance has a good hold on this general idea. The PV and 50/50 low are almost ideally positioned and there seems to be good agreement on Pac energy making its way into the Central US around that time as well.

 

It's hard to say much with any certainty at this range...other than it seems like, from a long distance out, things have the potential of lining up very well for us.

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Most of us seem to be in agreement....if the Euro has the right idea (and it has some very good cards in its deck with the MJO forecasts and overall pattern progression over the next 5-7 days)...we're looking at a general MECS setup.

 

It's absolutely classic, all of the ingredients are there and the cold air source is immense. 

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This is the best look we have seen on the modeling since 2010. It doesn't seem real.

 

The GFS finds a weakness between the main PV lobe and the one that gets phased into it...thus bridges the SE ridge between that weakness and into the block. The GFS always likes to find rogue weaknesses during big blocking patterns...Sandy is a prime example of that. 

 

The Euro has pretty much all of Canada as a PV. :lol: It kinda seems more likely, though, considering the block is in Greenland and the Davis Straights, and not so far south. This is a way we can get our block and our cold air. Considering how strong this block is, I don't really see said weakness occurring. This helps keep the storm track to our south. 

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This is the best look we have seen on the modeling since 2010. It doesn't seem real.

 

The GFS finds a weakness between the main PV lobe and the one that gets phased into it...thus bridges the SE ridge between that weakness and into the block. The GFS always likes to find rogue weaknesses during big blocking patterns...Sandy is a prime example of that. 

 

The Euro has pretty much all of Canada as a PV. :lol: It kinda seems more likely, though, considering the block is in Greenland and the Davis Straights, and not so far south. This is a way we can get our block and our cold air. Considering how strong this block is, I don't really see said weakness occurring. This helps keep the storm track to our south. 

 

The devil is in the details in this situation, especially at such a long range. I hate when storms like this are modeled so far out (even though the big ones always show up right where we are on the Euro and stay there for a few runs before disappearing) because people start looking at details way too early, and almost get an attachment to the storm.

 

Much of what is occurring in regards to the Polar Vortex in Canada has to do with the extreme high latitude blocking that is being modeled, not just on the Atlantic side but on the Pacific side as well. The GEFS 500 hPa height anomalies are incredibly robust as early as 84 hours and this is a blocking episode that actually began a few weeks ago but it coming to a head of sorts over the next week or two.

 

It is really important to remain cautious at this range because the models still are going to bounce back and forth a bit with the interactions between the two big ridges on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Greenland. The Euro and GEFS still differ greatly in handling those two features. The PV is going to slide underneath and elongate eventually. We also have to watch the de-amplification of the ridge out west as we move forward in time.

 

post-6-0-37227800-1362984992_thumb.png

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