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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Haven't made it home yet, but it's over an inch here in Plano. 

 

Texas winter weather:  If it's cold enough and you have disturbances coming through, the precip is always undermodeled.  Granted, today wasn't March 2010 but it certainly beat the disappointment of Sunday.  This event reminded me of a similar one in January of 1997.  Strong shortwave supposedly starved of moisture providing high ratio snow.      

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Haven't made it home yet, but it's over an inch here in Plano. 

 

Texas winter weather:  If it's cold enough and you have disturbances coming through, the precip is always undermodeled.  Granted, today wasn't March 2010 but it certainly beat the disappointment of Sunday.  This event reminded me of a similar one in January of 1997.  Strong shortwave supposedly starved of moisture providing high ratio snow.      

 

 

FWD called:

 

HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR

FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN

JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE

STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

That looks a lot like my drive this morning to class up the feeder road of 6. Aside from one idiot Lexus driver who almost spun out trying to speed through everyone, I was surprised at how competently everyone was driving this morning. It should be noted however that I was on the road from 7:20 to about 7:40 this morning, which is probably before most of my fellow college students (the ones with the particularly noticeable winter weather driving deficiency) had woken up.

 

Now that this round is over, who's ready for the next one?!

 

y0h.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

World's tiniest snowflakes when I left Wichita Falls, got heavier halfway to FTW on 287, 287 was just snow blowing across, but I saw a pickup spin out past Bowie on a cross street between the two directions of 287 and all the side streets were white..

 

Weirdest thing, it was bright enough, I wore sunglasses.  287 was fine until a mile before I-35W, which actually had snow between lanes, and moved slow until past I-20.

 

On I-35W about 25 miles from merger of 35W and 35E South of town I almost ran over a coyote that looked like a wolf, or vice versa.  Big for a coyote, had a wolf looking face, and orange color.

 

I had heard of wolf-coyote hybrids in the Northeast US, I may have seen the first ever wolf-coyote hybrid in Texas, in Johnson County,.

 

'Reduced Engine Power' readout and a check engine idiot light in Hearne, car didn't like speed in town, did ok except it lugged on hills, until I got close to home.  At local road speeds, there is something seriously wrong with the engine.  2007 Impala, had it since 2006, about 120k  on the odometer. 

 

Maybe the gas at the Shell station in West was bad.   I got some kolaches as well, to help them out.

 

Snow or sleet on shoulder of Beltway 6 to US 290 overpass, and my wife says it sleeted this morning.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

The RAP wants to drop measurable precipitation across DFW over night. Will it be right? What does 0.01 to 0.05 at 20+:1 look like? :lol:

 

I remember questions about what a 20:1 ratio would like like with NAM forecast 0.00 inches of precip about this time last night.  I got to see pickups spinning between Bowie and Fort Worth on US 287 this morning.

 

Like dandruff or talcum powder, I imagine...

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

The RAP wants to drop measurable precipitation across DFW over night. Will it be right? What does 0.01 to 0.05 at 20+:1 look like? :lol:

Radar composite shows light precip. Sure enough, there's a little flurry action outside.

Moisture looks to be even less of a problem than last night, however this shortwave isn't popping in NM/West Texas like todays disturbance was. Still time. I think somebody will get an inch or two.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Radar returns starting to increase from S TX into central TX and the western portions of SE TX.

 

700am surface temperatures were at or below freezing from near Conroe to Columbus to Beeville. Surface observations indicate light freezing drizzle and freezing rain is developing northward from deep south TX with Kingsville currently reporting 32 and freezing rain. As lift increases this morning expect drizzle and light rain to become increasingly widespread across SE TX and where surface temperatures are below freezing this precipitation will freeze on contact with now cooled elevated surfaces. College Station has now been below freezing for 35 straight hours so roadway surfaces have become cooled to or below the freezing point.

 

Expect freezing drizzle to develop over the next few hours from north of Victoria to College Station and Huntsville where surface temperatures are in the upper 20’s and will see very little if any recovery through the morning hours.

 

Temperatures further east across the Houston metro area are running in the 33-35 degree range which is a few degrees too warm for freezing precipitation. Onset of precipitation will result in a drop in the surface air temperature given the low dewpoints in place, but warm air advection above the surface should help offset this cooling some and do not expect surface temperatures to fall to or below freezing southeast of a line from Conroe to Victoria.

 

Maximum lift will be realized across the area this afternoon and evening so widespread drizzle and light rain will continue into the evening hours as the short wave disturbance passes east of the region overnight. Should see enough subsidence behind this system to result in clouds clearing on Saturday and temperatures finally rebounding into the 50’s and 60’s under southerly winds and greater amounts of sunshine.

 

The break looks short lived however as the next storm system will already be approaching the state by the early part of next week. Another polar/arctic front will cross the area on Monday and suspect models are too warm with the post frontal air mass currently. Will likely see temperatures trending downward over the weekend for the Mon-Wed time period next week. A series of upper level disturbances will transverse the area behind the cold front brining another period of clouds and precipitation. Could end up seeing more “actual” rainfall with this upcoming event when compared to the drizzle of the past few events which the area is in great need of at the moment to help mitigate the increasing drought conditions. For now will keep everything liquid, but if models do start to trend colder will have to start to look at P-type a little closer in the Tues-Wed time frame.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Had to make a drive over to east Texas today and got to see a lot of sleet with some snow mixed in.  Luckily, the temps stayed b/w 34 – 36 and the roads were just wet.

 

 

On to the early next week event: GFS has trended colder but drier. Euro going south with the event. Right now it doesn't look like anything major. Thats a bummer because with EPO flip and all other signals neutral, I expect a warm up to start.

 

I always prefer to be on the northern fringe vs. the southern fringe.  Just glancing at things, I think there is a little room for things to come north for us :weenie:

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Shreveport came out swinging in the afternoon AFD for NE TX and N LA into Oklahoma and Arkansas. They must be going with the WRF/RPM solutions this afternoon.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.
WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RANGE FROM HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY TO THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS TO
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE REGION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW FROM INTERSTATE 20 NORTHWARD WITH
FREEZING RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It looks like a pretty good consensus is forming between the 09z SREF, 12z NAM & GFS with all getting the DFW area in the 0.15 – 0.25” QPF range. Will enough of it fall with temperatures in the right range? 12z NAM clown maps just for fun!

24qsitw.png

ETA: Yes, this is an exercise in grasping at straws but it might be our last best hope of the winter

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted
Euro and GFS are *almost* within their normal margin of error for some ice theat early to mid week.  I suspect not Metro Houston.

But I wouldn't be shocked and surprised if the far NW counties saw something.  Just based on model hugging of the reliable globals...

Less reliable (especially the NAM at this range) models more optimistic on rainfall amounts locally than more reliable models.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/regions00z.html[/quote]

Except precip is ending as temps cool and of trivial amounts of precip for the entire event' date=' 12Z GFS is not almost within, it is within its normal margin of error for some ice.

NAM is slowly losing its meaningful rainfall event as it gets closer to the time range where it is actually useful, Canadian is the Canadian.  Be sweet if it was the broken clock right twice a day.  It shows over 3/4 inch precip. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCCENT_12z/cmcloop.html[/quote']

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Looking at WeatherBell PPV GFS  6 prior hour precip and temps (32F and 35F), if we assume precip is correct but 35F prediction of 2 meter temps more correct as a the freezing line, there would be some fairly light icing in the NW parts of the HGX CWA.

 

 

Same logic, Northern Louisiana/Central Mississippi would get a tree snapping ice storm per GFS. Near 1 inch QPF forecast after 35F line passes.  Again, assuming GFS has a warm bias and where it predicts 35F, it is really 'predicting' 32F.

 

I don't see a menu item for thickness or 850 mb temps on WxBell...  Still paying for AccuWx PPV. 

 

Yup, ice, 850 mb temps are cold, but above freezing and ~3C warmer than 2 meter temps.  BRB with a GFS sounding...

 

 

EDIT TO ADD 

 

 

I can't really tell if that is sleet or freezing rain, but if mostly liquid at surface, tree snapper.  GFS verbatim some is wasted as liquid rain above freezing.  But as mentioned above, the ballpark 3/4" at MLU is probably mostly freezing/frozen.

post-138-0-62193300-1392006232_thumb.gif

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