weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1993-94 looked good but as many speculated, you don't always get the same wx. But this is not even remotely on the same planet as that winter. We it got cold 10 days ago, I thought this might be the beginning. But the ease of the cutter rushing ridiculously warm air in is another reminder that this winter is a differnt animal Some of the euro early seasonal forecast had this ninth resembling 2004-05. Lol....fail! The only one I'm holding out hope for is the 1968-69 which has some similarity in guidance. But in my own memory, this winter is rather 1991-92 esque particularly from the last week of December onwards. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Analogs are the worse thing to happen to this forum. Every winter is diff, you should just leave 93-94 in the past. You called back to back ratters in the spring, good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Analogs are the worse thing to happen to this forum. Every winter is diff, you should just leave 93-94 in the past. You called back to back ratters in the spring, good call There is still hope. If we're in the same boat in 2 weeks, I'll consider throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 There is still hope. If we're in the same boat in 2 weeks, I'll consider throwing in the towel. We shall see what happens, look forward to your winter call in spring. Last two years spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The pattern did look like '93-'94 for a time...the difference is in winters like those, the pattern was sustained for the most part for about 6 weeks (snow is more of a crapshoot). 1994 actually had a huge cutter around this time too...we spiked into the 50s that day and I recall Caribou ME set a record high. But we had more sustained overrunning pattern that year...the moisture feed from the SW was high. This year, we just haven't been able to get that aspect of it. Analogs are tough, because very similar hemispheric or even CONUS patterns don't always produce epic snow or the same sensible wx. It often does, but not always. There's a reason when you look at the analog lists, some of the years don't really resemble eachother in sensible wx despite very smilar patterns. That said, every winter is its own entity, but looking at past analogs can still be very useful. Analogs are how we learn about patterns...we study the past to help understand the current and predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The pattern did look like '93-'94 for a time...the difference is in winters like those, the pattern was sustained for the most part for about 6 weeks (snow is more of a crapshoot). 1994 actually had a huge cutter around this time too...we spiked into the 50s that day and I recall Caribou ME set a record high. But we had more sustained overrunning pattern that year...the moisture feed from the SW was high. This year, we just haven't been able to get that aspect of it. Analogs are tough, because very similar hemispheric or even CONUS patterns don't always produce epic snow or the same sensible wx. It often does, but not always. There's a reason when you look at the analog lists, some of the years don't really resemble eachother in sensible wx despite very smilar patterns. That said, every winter is its own entity, but looking at past analogs can still be very useful. Analogs are how we learn about patterns...we study the past to help understand the current and predict the future. Your last two paragraphs are important. I joke about anal-logs, but people have to understand that those are model analog packages which obviously are subject to atmospheric chaos and changes. Just a small tweak here and there in the height fields have a huge outcome. I think some can't help but get excited..but we always try to tell them that by no means should they expect a duplicate performance of said year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Your last two paragraphs are important. I joke about anal-logs, but people have to understand that those are model analog packages which obviously are subject to atmospheric chaos and changes. Just a small tweak here and there in the height fields have a huge outcome. I think some can't help but get excited..but we always try to tell them that by no means should they expect a duplicate performance of said year. I found this analog omposite archieved from late December 2010 looking at the pattern going into January 2011....while there are some very good years in there, look at several duds too (Jan 1969 was AWFUL)....you wouldn't have forecasted 40-50 inches of snow in a month with this map. You would say there was above average potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I found this analog omposite archieved from late December 2010 looking at the pattern going into January 2011....while there are some very good years in there, look at several duds too (Jan 1969 was AWFUL)....you wouldn't have forecasted 40-50 inches of snow in a month with this map. You would say there was above average potential. Yeah and look at '04-'05....would you think we'd see 100" over the Cape? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah and look at '04-'05....would you think we'd see 100" over the Cape? LOL. I think by the time you guys are old men this will be a very, very useful tool as we build up decades more data. Right now it can go either way as we just don't have the sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think by the time you guys are old men this will be a very, very useful tool as we build up decades more data. Right now it can go either way as we just don't have the sample size. It's really a tool that more or less can back up your thoughts regarding the long range pattern. They can be useful, but at the same time...if models are incorrect in handling of the pattern...those composites won't help you. I think they are useful, but they are not meant to be taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The pattern did look like '93-'94 for a time...the difference is in winters like those, the pattern was sustained for the most part for about 6 weeks (snow is more of a crapshoot). 1994 actually had a huge cutter around this time too...we spiked into the 50s that day and I recall Caribou ME set a record high. But we had more sustained overrunning pattern that year...the moisture feed from the SW was high. This year, we just haven't been able to get that aspect of it. http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html I think this is the cutter you mean. BTV had this stretch in 1994 Date High Low 1/26 0 -25 1/27 14 -29 1/28 46 14 1/29 43 10 1/30 9 -6 1/31 9 -11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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