AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 8 minutes in. Anybody have any news on the EURO? 24hrs in the low is on the AR/MS/LA border... probably a tad bit stronger... that's about all I can see comparing the instantweathermaps scales to accupro from the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Haven't been able to check much yet but it appears that the south shift on the models is backed up by current obs (check out the evening update from Dallas). Excellent reference to the DFW obs. I've pasted below for those who haven't yet read: Update... we have analyzed the 00z upper air data and have watched the surface observation closely for signs of any discrepancies between them and the model data. The big thing that stands out are that the surface low in northeast New Mexico at 6pm was about 80 miles farther south than all of the models had forecast 24 hours ago. When dealing with a swinging/digging upper level system...the surface pressure pattern and pressure tendencies offer enormous clues on the future track of a potential vorticity anomaly before it closes off to become a full fledged upper low. The 3pm and 6pm surface analysis showed a large region of pressure falls across New Mexico and West Texas in advance of the system. Given the orientation of the pressure falls and location of the surface low...it can be determined without even looking at a forecast model that the upper low has not finished digging south. The big question is how far south will the upper low make it before it begins to swing back to the northeast. At this hour pressure falls continue in the region from Lubbock to Midland...with another pressure fall area developing in southeast Texas. Extrapolating suggests the upper low will track just south of Lubbock by sunrise and to near Waco by sunset. As the low approaches Waco...a warm front will be organizing out of the weak stationary front currently analyzed from San Antonio to Houston. Baroclinic qg theory suggests that once low level warm advection begins in earnest across southeast Texas by morning...it will induce height rises to the southeast of our upper low which will cause the low to close off and finish digging south...and start its gradual turn to the northeast. Tomorrow evening I would expect the low to track from near Waco to near Shreveport. In summary the usual medium range models appear to be a little too far north with the track of the upper low. Our expectations for the track of the low align well with the rap forecast which is to the south of all other models...so we will use the rap heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro appears to hold ground yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't think we'll see large shifts in any direction from here really, but a county or 2 either way not out of the question still IMO. Frankly personally I'd take a tiny shift NW for more buffer room, I'd gladly take 15-20 miles even with how sharp the NW gradient is in this system, Haven't seen one pregged that sharp since.. well the last storm to blast Paducah and Evansville in 2004, I was on the lucky end that storm, hopefully I can get lucky again.. I was on the lucky side of the 2004 storm as well 25"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 8 minutes in. Anybody have any news on the EURO? should be close to 12z euro up there.. maybe a little wetter? looks solid to me.. precip shied looks a little farther north...imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro has been amazingly consistent with QPF around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 48hrs it's basically the same as the 12z run from general comparisons... if anything the primary is a touch stronger and west compared to the 12z. Again its hard for me to see exactly but it certainly appears that way to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 heh sometimes you gotta wonder if the Euro knows to change anything, been steady as she goes almost the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 should be close to 12z euro up there.. maybe a little wetter? looks solid to me.. precip shied looks a little farther north...imo Stunned. Really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah sometimes its so consistent its scary heh sometimes you gotta wonder if the Euro knows to change anything, been steady as she goes almost the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO surface low 50 miles south of Memphis at 27 hours. Snow shield moving into Evansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO keeps the door open for a more significant accumulation, but I'd still lean towards the drier models. Really sucks too because I could have gotten a good night sleep had it caved. See you all around 4 am for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38506-december-26-27-winter-storm-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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