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December 20th-22nd Major Winter Storm Part II


andyhb

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Maybe Andy will bring us some better luck? :weenie:

Jokes aside, the CAA with this thing is pretty impressive on the Euro, some areas further south have around a 20˚ drop in the temperature anomalies at H85 between 48 and 72 hrs.

And I apologize for getting bent out of shape, it's just the overall failure of the warm sector side of this thing has kind of gotten on my nerves. :axe:

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Hey guys, I am apoloizimg up front . I am not a met..

Really curious about at what time frame we can look at models and be pretty confident of path. The fact that NWS in wisc. has put up watches makes me wonder if that confidence on their part is there. I live in northern lower pen. of mich. and realize any variation could be a huge outcome in weather I get. I have heard local met. generally prefer the european. Any thoughts ? Thanks.

I saw this in the prior thread and thought I would chip in that the watch really just signifies 50% confidence in reaching 6" in 12 hours. I would say you could read into the lead time suggesting a higher confidence though. Generally watches are inside of 48 hours, this was 54 hours if I'm correct.

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I'd sure like to see a bump SE on the gfs, but the euro models holding makes me feel good.

This is a system where you don't want to nws be on the SE half of the heavy snow band being progged. Id feel a lot better if I were in cedar rapids and dubuque. We might do okay here though as this baby winds up.

I 'm cautiously optimistic on this.

Isn't DVN always dealing with the mixing issues? ;)

I have to say though, seeing the 00z Euro ensembles continue to be on the southern envelope of guidance looks good for you. Even the 00z GFS is ripping 50 kt winds down to just several hundred feet off the deck. More than close enough to mix down during that def band wrap around.

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