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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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Nice pictures. 

So much for that little snow curve around you on the models that showed you getting less than everyone else.

Yeah, models completely missed that band setting up like that.

 

Well, I'm not sure if we will see another storm this season or not, but this goes for next winter as well, if I make a post complaining about getting shafted on a SWPA storm feel free to bring this up to remind me. :)

 

Tracking weather really is a "What have you done for me lately" hobby though. ;)

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I know everyone is in Spring mode but it looks like snow is returning for the remainder of the week and maybe into next week. :snowman:

I just looked at the GFS and it looks like a run out of January or February.... just cold with several snow chances in the mix.... 2013 the year without a Spring?  :o  lol I'll take it! An extra month of storms to track should be fun and we all know this area is capable of cashing in with a March storm. :) If its going to be anomalously cold for the season, we might as well root for snow.

 

I wonder if this cold shot will be enough to kill the stink bugs and mosquito s?

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Ugh.  I'm so over winter, I'm afraid.  These past three days of mild temperatures put me into spring mode.  Once I get into that, winter is pretty much over.

 

I'll still watch the models, however.  Like I always say..  if it's going to be cold, it might as well snow.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

158 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-130200-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0019.130313T0900Z-130314T1200Z/

GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...

FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...

PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

158 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM

EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM

WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES...UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* SNOW BEGINNING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MELTING OF SNOW ON

SURFACES.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ENDING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW

COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

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Moderate snow falling here in Greensburg. Ground is whitened.

I was in Monroeville on a sales call and was leaving just before noon. A snow squall dropped visibility to almost zero and covered the roads on my way home. The roads were snow covered on RT 22 all the way to the parkway at Wilkinsburg. By the time I got down to Edgewood it was wet and into town the sun was out. Been that kind of a day since I have been home as well.

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Jwilson - do you know your elevation. Seems like you are always shafted. Are you relatively low compared to the surrounding terrain? Thought this might have been your storm...

 

I'm just shy of 1000'.  I think it's just the general position we are in compared to the main thrust of the mountains to our close East.  I'm no expert so I can't entirely explain it, but you'll notice on models most of the time (and even snow plots) there is a "tongue" depiction than pokes toward the Apps in Northern WV / SW PA.

 

I almost laughed when I saw the Euro this morning.  Sorry, but I'm not falling for that again!  Nonetheless it is pretty interesting to see these snow chances going into the second half of March.  We also had a pretty good whiteout earlier, but no accumulations.  Haven't seen it snow that hard here but one other time.  It's a shame it is all wasted (and extremely brief).

 

I think a pattern like this in January or February and we'd be talking big time.

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Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

327 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

OHZ040-041-050-PAZ020-021-029-073-075-WVZ001-002-171530-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0020.130318T0300Z-130318T1800Z/

CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-

WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...

COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...

STEUBENVILLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...

BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...

DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...

GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...

UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...BETHANY

327 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO

2 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCH.

* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...SHORTLY AFTER DARK THIS EVENING.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...SNOW OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN

ON MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW/ICE ENDING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY

MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO

SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING

RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK

PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

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I don't expect much impact from this event. We all know how these sort of storm evolutions pan out for SWPA. If this were early January and we had highs in the 20s the day before that would make things a bit more interesting, but I just don't see it in mid March. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.  Still quite a feat to have WSW and WWA this time of year. Old man winter still has a couple of more punches left to through it seems.

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Have had off and on Freezing rain, snow and sleet since about 6:00 am. 

Just a dusting everywhere and side roads and driveway is slick.

Temp is 31.8.

I don't like this. If it isn't going to snow then I would rather have the rain wash it away.

It's just a nuisance.

Yeah, I had sleet at home this morning. I hit a pretty slick area around Delmont with sleet and snow coming down at a good clip. Just a nuisance though... and keeps hitting you in the wallet for heating bills. Hopefully winter goes out with a bang to make the delayed spring worthwhile.

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12z GFS gives us quite a storm early next week. Just some eye candy to look at before it screws us in the next run. Lol

While we do get .7qpf most of it looks to be rain with temps in the mid 30s. Primary holds on to long and floods us with warm air... you know the drill.

It looked that way to me too, but I was going by a snowfall map that Joe Bastardi posted from the GFS. Gives us substantial snowfall totals. I do know the drill, that's why I said it would probably screw us next run anyway. Temps will always be a concern this time of year, no matter what a model shows.

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It looked that way to me too, but I was going by a snowfall map that Joe Bastardi posted from the GFS. Gives us substantial snowfall totals. I do know the drill, that's why I said it would probably screw us next run anyway. Temps will always be a concern this time of year, no matter what a model shows.

I saw that same Bastardi map on his Twitter. It was the GFS snowfall map from 3/20-3/26.

That same map did well with the last storm giving us a trace while giving Central Pa. some good snows.

This one brings the snow into SW Pa. 

It is still a ways out but the way this Winter has gone...who knows.

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit

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It looked that way to me too, but I was going by a snowfall map that Joe Bastardi posted from the GFS. Gives us substantial snowfall totals. I do know the drill, that's why I said it would probably screw us next run anyway. Temps will always be a concern this time of year, no matter what a model shows.

The one re-developer storm I can remember in recent memory that actually stayed cold enough for all frozen was VD 2007, that one seemed to buck the trend of us going to rain. We had snow to sleet to zr then back to snow.

 

I am just getting annoyed we have below normal temps but no snow. Its to cold for spring but to warm for snow lol. I didn't see the Joe B map. I wish we could just get a Miller A to run up east of the apps on the coastal plain. Seems like everything is Miller B this year.

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The one re-developer storm I can remember in recent memory that actually stayed cold enough for all frozen was VD 2007, that one seemed to buck the trend of us going to rain. We had snow to sleet to zr then back to snow.

 

I am just getting annoyed we have below normal temps but no snow. Its to cold for spring but to warm for snow lol. I didn't see the Joe B map. I wish we could just get a Miller A to run up east of the apps on the coastal plain. Seems like everything is Miller B this year.

Another nice detailed discussion by Fries.

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTICPROGRESSION EXPECTATIONS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS LIKELY TODOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE-QUARTERS OF THEWEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...YET STILL QUITECOLD...CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY SUNDAYNIGHT...CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY TO GO QUICKLY DOWNHILL.MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN ABIT INCONSISTENT...IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MEMBERSAS IF THEY WERE A SINGLE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THEY ARE NOT.IN FACT...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS AND CANADIAN/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVEBEEN PLAYING SCATTERSHOT WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL ANDSUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT TRACKS OUT OF THE ROCKIESTOWARD US EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUIETLY CONSISTENT.NOT ONLY THAT...THE 00Z ECMWF REPRESENTS A VERY SOLID COMPROMISEBETWEEN THE VERY FAST 06Z/12Z GFS SOLUTIONS...AND THE VERY SLOW00Z/12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEENSOLIDLY CONSISTENT IN HOLDING COLD AIR OVER THE AREA BY TAKING ASOUTHERN ROUTE WITH THE SYSTEM RATHER THAN THE MORE NORTHERLYTRAJECTORY OF THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL SYSTEM...ONE THINGSEEMS PRETTY CLEAR...IT IS GOING TO PRECIPITATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.AS SUCH...POPS HAVE AGAIN BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR ATLEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.ADDITIONALLY...IN FAVORING THE ECMWF...TEMPERATURES WERE CHOPPEDBACK DOWN TO VALUES WELL BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWSFOR P-TYPES TO TREND TOWARD SNOW. IN FOLLOWING THE THERMODYNAMICSOF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE MOSTLY LIKELY TRACK OF THE 850 MBLOW...THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. THERESTILL REMAINS A VERY STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWSWILL BE SEEN IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.EVEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOWREMAINS IN CONTROL WITH CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLYRUNNING BETWEEN -6 AND -10C THROUGHOUT. AS A RESULT...WEAKINSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BEPOSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...HIGH SPEED UPPERFLOW...AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. ALL IN ALL...WINTER LOOKS LIKELYTO HOLD ON STRONG RIGHT INTO APRIL. FRIES&&
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It looked that way to me too, but I was going by a snowfall map that Joe Bastardi posted from the GFS. Gives us substantial snowfall totals. I do know the drill, that's why I said it would probably screw us next run anyway. Temps will always be a concern this time of year, no matter what a model shows.

I found the image you were referring to. I wonder how it calculates snowfall based on the temps it seems to show?

post-328-0-62110800-1363808119_thumb.jpg

 

Anyways, I hope I didn't come off as jumping down your throat over the post as I didn't mean it to come off that way.

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It looked that way to me too, but I was going by a snowfall map that Joe Bastardi posted from the GFS. Gives us substantial snowfall totals. I do know the drill, that's why I said it would probably screw us next run anyway. Temps will always be a concern this time of year, no matter what a model shows.

I found the image you were referring to. I wonder how it calculates snowfall based on the temps it seems to show?

post-328-0-62110800-1363808119_thumb.jpg

 

Anyways, I hope I didn't come off as jumping down your throat over the post as I didn't mean it to come off that way.

I didn't take it that way at all, don't worry about it. Like I said, I thought the same thing as you when I first looked at the run myself. Anyway, I'm not getting my hopes up, especially for this time of year, but we'll see what happens.

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The setup so far is one, that I wouldn't be crazy about in January, let alone late March.

 

The primary needs to be buried in S. West Virginia, not eastern ohio, or be weak and far enough west to allow for a stronger sencondary over the coastal plain.

 

Obviously the best option is a strong miller A up through central Va, with a nice H5 low over S. West Virginia.

 

But like many of you have mentioned, any bit of southerly component will flood our area with warm air.

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