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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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0z GFS shifts south. Closer to the Euro solution. Keeps things colder.

Looks pretty good. Would be nice to see it slow down a bit so the best snowfall comes overnight into Monday morning. I think the Euro is slower, so even if they meet in the middle would be a more late day Sunday start time.

 

Edit:

Almost forgot to mention I had a nice 1/4 - 1/2 inch of fluffy snow this morning. Everything was covered, even the roads and a balmy 19 on the car thermometer.

 

Now if I could get my way I would stay below normal til April with 2 more snow storms, then maybe slightly above normal for April, Normal for May, Below Normal for June-Aug and low humidity then normal til November. Then, Below Normal for DJF  :bike: 

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Looks pretty good. Would be nice to see it slow down a bit so the best snowfall comes overnight into Monday morning. I think the Euro is slower, so even if they meet in the middle would be a more late day Sunday start time.

 

Edit:

Almost forgot to mention I had a nice 1/4 - 1/2 inch of fluffy snow this morning. Everything was covered, even the roads and a balmy 19 on the car thermometer.

 

Now if I could get my way I would stay below normal til April with 2 more snow storms, then maybe slightly above normal for April, Normal for May, Below Normal for June-Aug and low humidity then normal til November. Then, Below Normal for DJF  :bike:

NAM now gives us about 3 inches. Damn I may have to get the shovel out again Monday morning if this plays out.

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NAM now gives us about 3 inches. Damn I may have to get the shovel out again Monday morning if this plays out.

GFS Looks pretty good just eyeballing 2m and 850 freezing lines as well. Not bad qpf either, we could probably stand to see this move North a bit and still be in pretty good shape. Might actually increase precip rates.. Looks to have slowed down a bit too.

post-328-0-98444700-1363882822_thumb.jpg

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Yeah.. Another one of the strong blocking with sharp cutoff type setups. Id think the odds are better this goes to far south than North at this point. We are right on the line though so a waffle one way or another means alot.

NAM and GFS say don't quite your day job lol I am surprised the idea of the primary holding on longer is plausible. Lets hope this doesn't continue.

 

The GFS is to warm, would be slop verbatim. We need something in the middle of the 00z and 18z I think.

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Right now, the NAM gives us about 6 inches of snow. The GFS gives us 3-4 inches.

I do not know about the Euro.

The GGEM I do not have numbers for but according to model below it gives us a good 8 hours of moderate snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

 

If that comes in overnight Sunday, we may have a similar event to last week.

Right now I think we could be looking at anywhere between 2-6 inches.

Remember, I am not a met. These are just my guesses thus far.

What does everyone else think?

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Right now, the NAM gives us about 6 inches of snow. The GFS gives us 3-4 inches.

I do not know about the Euro.

The GGEM I do not have numbers for but according to model below it gives us a good 8 hours of moderate snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

 

If that comes in overnight Sunday, we may have a similar event to last week.

Right now I think we could be looking at anywhere between 2-6 inches.

Remember, I am not a met. These are just my guesses thus far.

What does everyone else think?

I'm thinking 2-4 right now. NAM is likely over juiced, and I would expect ratios to be close to 10:1. GFS is a mix mess, but I think its to far North given the Euro so a blend between the 2 seems safe. The one thing that bothers me is it does not come very quickly we have several hours of light or moderate snow. That could cut down on totals if it happens during daylight hours.

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I'm thinking 2-4 right now. NAM is likely over juiced, and I would expect ratios to be close to 10:1. GFS is a mix mess, but I think its to far North given the Euro so a blend between the 2 seems safe. The one thing that bothers me is it does not come very quickly we have several hours of light or moderate snow. That could cut down on totals if it happens during daylight hours.

18Z NAM drops precip. Now 4 inches of snow.

You are right so far it looks like a 2-4 inch storm at this point.

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Nice new update from Fries at NWS Pit

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/......POTENTIAL MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM MOVING TOWARD THE AREASUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER MUCH MORE NICELY IN THEDEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EMERGESFROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPIVALLY BEFORE EMERGING TOWARD SOUTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INFACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE POSITION ANDDEPTH OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM ARE SO MINOR THATTHE VARIANCE IN MSLP IS LESS THAN 3 HPA...AND THE LOCATION VARIESON BY A FEW COUNTIES AT MOST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY POIGNANTCONSIDERING THAT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELYSYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN...WITH INSTABILITY UNLIKELY TO PLAY A LARGEROLE IN GENERATION. AS SUCH...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED AND EVENTUALLYOCCLUDING SYSTEM ROLLING INTO THE REGION...THE RELATIVE LOCATIONOF THE TROWAL AIR STREAM AND DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ATTENDANTNEGATIVE OMEGA WILL BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO WHERE THE AXIS OFHEAVIEST QPF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND TO WHAT EXTENT IT MOVES NORTHINTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SAID...THE SREF HAS BEENTROUBLINGLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST DAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEENFOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH LENDS EXTREME CREDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONSRELATIVE TO THE MORE INCONSISTENT GFS AND CANADIAN PROGRESSIONS.AS SUCH...THE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF AND SREF FORTHE REFLECTION OF QPF AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...WHICHFAVORS A STRONG DEFORMATION BAND MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHTFROM THE SOUTHWEST.WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FARNORTH AS PITTSBURGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION ASTO HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD IT MAY TRANSLATE. THE NORTHERNPERIPHERY OF DEFORMATION LIFT AS WELL AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRTHAT WILL BE LIKELY TO TRY TO FEED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECONTROLLING FACTORS AS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT QPF MAYDEVELOP. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH I-80 MAY BE A GOODTERMINATOR FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO BEADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THATSAID...DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THEDEFORMATION ZONE WITH A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONGLY NEGATIVEOMEGAS STRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FAVORS SNOW TO LIQUIDRATIOS UP TO 15:1 OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMTEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A LIKELY SECLUSION OFWARM AIR THAT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERNOHIO...THESE RATIOS WERE CUT SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDORAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM WHEELING SOUTHWARD.BECAUSE THE MODELS FAVOR A FILLING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERSOUTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AND A TRANSITION TO COASTALCYCLOGENESIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER...AND THEDEFORMATION BAND WILL LIKELY FALL APART DUE TO FILLING OF THE LOW.THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOWS TO END ONMONDAY...HOWEVER BEFORE THEY DO...THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THESREF...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL PAINT ROUGHLY 0.4-0.6 INCHES OF QPFUNDER THE FAVORED DEFORMATION AXIS PARKING REGION. ODDLYENOUGH...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A LOCATION SIMILAR TO THATWHICH OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WHEN THE PA TURNPIKE CORRIDORWAS SLAMMED. THAT SAID...THE FORECAST HAS ADJUSTED TAPERING THESE0.4-0.6 INCH NUMBERS DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE TURNPIKECORRIDOR...YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX OR SO INCHES IN ASWATH FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBIANA COUNTY OHIO TO WESTMORELAND/INDIANACOUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF THIS LOCATION IS NOTQUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME...IT ISFULLY EXPECTED THAT ONE WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEARFUTURE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIDGES...WHERE ADDITIONAL COOLINGAND SOME UPSLOPE ASCENT WILL ACCENTUATE ACCUMULATIONS. ALL INALL...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW SEEMS QUITE LIKELYACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN PARTICULAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FRIES&&
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Winter Storm Watch


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 236 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007-013-014-020>023-029-073-075-WVZ001>003-240245-/O.EXB.KPBZ.WS.A.0004.130324T2300Z-130325T1800Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY... LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON... BETHANY...WHEELING 236 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* SNOW BEGINNING...SUNDAY EVENING.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.

* SNOW DIMINISHING...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA821 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREALATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OHZ041-PAZ013-014-020>023-073-075-240830-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0004.130324T2300Z-130325T1800Z//O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0007.130325T0300Z-130325T1500Z/COLUMBIANA-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION821 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PMSUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...SUNDAY EVENING.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.* SNOW DIMINISHING...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO  REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGHFACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.
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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA821 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREALATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OHZ049-050-PAZ029-WVZ001>003-240830-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0004.130324T2300Z-130325T1800Z//O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0024.130325T0000Z-130325T1200Z/HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-WASHINGTON-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING821 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PMSUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE  OHIO RIVER.* SNOW BEGINNING...SUNDAY EVENING.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH  PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.* SNOW DIMINISHING...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW  COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ANDLIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.
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Yeah, gotta love the NAM. It can turn what most models show as a 4 or 5 inch storm into a foot. lol

Don't make too much fun of it. That .75 equates to 7 inches according to NWS. Looking at the GGEM I do not know the totals but it is showing some impressive rates overnight and early Monday morning. We may see like last storm where there was a band of 8-10 inches in some places. I still think this will be similar with some areas getting 4 or 6 inches and some areas getting 8-10.

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00z GFS looks good.

attachicon.gif00zGFS3242013.JPG

 

NWS discussion mentions banding setting up again, so I agree someone is probably going to hit the "jackpot" again for this storm. Hopefully Greensburg gets part of it as I could use an excuse to sleep in tomorrow morning. ;)

 

 

Is this one gonna be Henry's BIG DADDY finally?!!....I'm surprised the boards are as quiet as they are....prob cause everyone is ready for spring?....but I'd rather have more whallops instead if freezing and cloudy....

It looks like most of us will stay north of the important 85H low pivot point.

 

The morning AFD mentioned the best lift to the north of the 85H low, so any mid level dry slotting should not be an issue.

This goes along with the NWS expanding the WSWarings and WWA's south and west.

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Yeah, gotta love the NAM. It can turn what most models show as a 4 or 5 inch storm into a foot. lol

Don't make too much fun of it. That .75 equates to 7 inches according to NWS. Looking at the GGEM I do not know the totals but it is showing some impressive rates overnight and early Monday morning. We may see like last storm where there was a band of 8-10 inches in some places. I still think this will be similar with some areas getting 4 or 6 inches and some areas getting 8-10.

Well, the 0z NAM was showing some crazy amounts last night for Washington and Greene Counties where I think the amounts will be a little less due to some warmer air. It had them at 10 or 11 inches I think which is ridiculous. Even had us higher than what I think we get out of this. It was really ridiculous for Virginia. The 12z NAM and GFS today seem to be pretty close to each other giving us realistic amounts. The NAM seems to overdo it with QPF and then gets more realistic right before the storm starts.

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   HEY! There's more than 1000 posts. Time to start a new thread...

 

(Which I point out only to bring up the question, doesn't it seem a little odd to be discussing a Warning criteria snow event on March 24th, in a thread entitled "A New Winter Season"? Both because of the late date of the event, and the fact that the season in total required only one thread.) 

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