wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 If it can stay over water for the dmax... She has probably around 24 hours over water....she's in no rush...then we'll probably see a loop de loop, a pirouette, and a couple of axel double toe loops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 4th pass...no TS winds, pressure up a bit, convection still thinning around the center, but it's slowly moving N...with the last fix a tad E of due N Painful to watch on of the hardcore dudes falling apart. I see an intervention soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Painful to watch on of the hardcore dudes falling apart. I see an intervention soon. Another hater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Lots o' judgment in this here thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I will say the 18z run is fun to look at for Texans. Hanging on hope for a 45 kt system is all we can ask for these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Another hater Don't fret. I just had a momentary lapse myself after taking away my attention from the 94 tease and watching what was happening with Helene. I have no shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I will say the 18z run is fun to look at for Texans. Hanging on hope for a 45 kt system is all we can ask for these days. Slopgyre ftw. I'll take any rain that this or the front will bring at this point. My pond is getting low and the ranch is bone dry in S Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Don't fret. I just had a momentary lapse myself after taking away my attention from the 94 tease and watching what was happening with Helene. I have no shame. Yeah, was looking at the paltry reflection of Helene in the 18z GFS when a dark ball appeared on the corner of my eye. If we compare at how pre-Helene looked yesterday at this time and how she looked like 12 hours later, there's still some slight hope for something better than 45kts, though not much, at least in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Slopgyre ftw. I'll take any rain that this or the front will bring at this point. My pond is getting low and the ranch is bone dry in S Texas... Note a slopgyre... just slop. Way too small to be considered a gyre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 The small circulation is moving Northward along 96.0W, latest fix roughly 20.8N, 96.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 If anyones wondering where the haters are I'll PM you my address and phone number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'd say it's already dying out, coldest cloud tops are associated with upslope on the western side and there doesn't appear to be any inner core convection. The extreme topography in the region is too much for a tropical cyclone to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'd say it's already dying out, coldest cloud tops are associated with upslope on the western side and there doesn't appear to be any inner core convection. The extreme topography in the region is too much for a tropical cyclone to handle. I was wondering about the topo in that area, thanks for sharing that, I was wondering if the upslope on the western side wound wrap more dry into the core or more moist air, seems like you answered that. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I was wondering about the topo in that area, thanks for sharing that, I was wondering if the upslope on the western side wound wrap more dry into the core or more moist air, seems like you answered that. Thanks again. I chased a hurricane down there-- Karl 2010, which came ashore near Veracruz-- and the mountains really did a number on it as it approached the coast. It was still strong as it came ashore, but not what it could have been: http://icyclone.com/chases/karl-2010.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I was wondering about the topo in that area, thanks for sharing that, I was wondering if the upslope on the western side wound wrap more dry into the core or more moist air, seems like you answered that. Thanks again. No problem, the Sierra Madre Oriental runs down the western side of the Gulf of Mexico, 3000 m rise from sea level over a short area. Undoubtedly some killer dry air from compressional warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'd say it's already dying out, coldest cloud tops are associated with upslope on the western side and there doesn't appear to be any inner core convection. The extreme topography in the region is too much for a tropical cyclone to handle. Not saying this is a healthy system, but this is par for the course in this area of the world. The BoC is probably the king of dMin and dMax in the basin. Topography helps spin up disturbances, but also robs convection near sunset because of all the land convection, enhanced by upsloping. By midnight land convection will start to die, and it will flare up near Helene. As long as she is weak, she will be a pulsing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Not saying this is a healthy system, but this is par for the course in this area of the world. The BoC is probably the king of dMin and dMax in the basin. Topography helps spin up disturbances, but also robs convection near sunset because of all the land convection, enhanced by upsloping. By midnight land convection will start to die, and it will flare up near Helene. As long as she is weak, she will be a pulsing storm. I don't think this is simply a case of land convection robbing the core, I think it's too close to land already and probably over. I guess we will see who is right and wrong in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I don't think this is simply a case of land convection robbing the core, I think it's too close to land already and probably over. I guess we will see who is right and wrong in the next 12 hours. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 yep The BoC has many haters. Nothing new. I recall Bill Read commenting last year at Conference that this part of the Basin is often misunderstood and under estimated. No one expected this to be another Humberto or even Hermine, but the Bay Of Campeche/Western Gulf has throw its share of curveballs that have left even the most 'seasoned' forecasters scratching their head over the years... Avila in the full package disco... A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATED HELENE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AND FOUND THAT THE DEVELOPMENT TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. HELENE IS EITHER WEAKER OR ON A STEADY STATE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE IT LEFT THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR HELENE TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR EARLIER. AFTER LANDFALL...A STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT HELENE WAS MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO FORCE HELENE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LOW...OR PERHAPS THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF HELENE DRIFTING NORTHWARD VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND IN FACT...THE GFS RESTRENGTHENS THIS FEATURE. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 21.0N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.7N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 22.2N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 19/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 24.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Josh and Turtle....Thanks for your answers, I can understand compressional warming as the winds create friction. My next question is this, could the wind speeds pick up on the lee of the mountain range and as they move into the SW quad of the storm, could they scoop up enough moisture over water to enhance the convection on the NE side? And if that could happen, could the center start to wobble to the NE? I'm new to Tropical storms, just trying to get a good idea in my head of the wind fields is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Think we can call this one dead. Seems like the circulation moved inland and has since weakened/dissipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Think we can call this one dead. Seems like the circulation moved inland and has since weakened/dissipated. Just because you can't see the center on Infrared imagery does not mean the center has dissipated. There is still some ovious low level turning just offshore and to the east of the latest convective burst. Yes Helene is struggling but it remains a TC for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I see a lot of mid level turning and some week low level turning right off the coast. maybe its not dissipated but it dont think it gets any stronger than it is now / was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I see a lot of mid level turning and some week low level turning right off the coast. maybe its not dissipated but it dont think it gets any stronger than it is now / was earlier. I think thats a reasonable forecast given that the mid-level circulation is detached and inland from the low-level reflection. This type of vertical displacement does not favor much if any development before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Convection is refiring a bit but there's no sign of a circulation over water. Even a naked swirl would be easily discernible on shortwave IR. Looks like the circulation has moved inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Looks like she moved inland very close to Tampico, according to visible and radar. Dmax did little overnight...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Did TAM report any interesting weather? Maybe a peak gust to 25 kt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Did TAM report any interesting weather? Maybe a peak gust to 25 kt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Did TAM report any interesting weather? Maybe a peak gust to 25 kt? I'll get back to you two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'll get back to you two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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