Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 1005 mbs and farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Recon is within 60 miles of the shore and hasn't found a circulation yet. It still looks like they are on the inbound leg. There is almost certainly a circulation based on the low level cloud motions on the edge of the convection on visible imagery. The much bigger question are how strong are the winds? We are probably looking at a TD at this point, but we need to see what the winds look like in the W quadrant where there is deep convection. Edit: Looks like TS Force SFMR winds based on the last set of obs. Hello Helene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Heh... 000 URNT15 KNHC 172031 AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 18 20120817 202300 2056N 09615W 9771 00296 0105 +239 +225 076017 017 019 001 00 202330 2054N 09616W 9773 00292 0105 +239 +228 077017 017 019 001 00 202400 2052N 09616W 9772 00294 0105 +237 +232 075016 017 019 001 00 202430 2051N 09616W 9772 00294 0105 +237 +227 076016 017 018 000 00 202500 2049N 09615W 9773 00293 0104 +241 +213 077017 018 018 000 00 202530 2047N 09615W 9775 00290 0104 +237 +225 075016 017 017 000 00 202600 2045N 09615W 9772 00293 0102 +235 +227 067017 017 018 000 00 202630 2044N 09615W 9774 00288 0100 +236 +229 061017 018 018 000 00 202700 2042N 09614W 9771 00290 0098 +236 +227 051016 017 018 000 00 202730 2040N 09614W 9773 00287 0097 +236 +229 043016 017 017 001 00 202800 2039N 09613W 9772 00284 0093 +240 +221 033019 020 021 001 00 202830 2037N 09612W 9773 00279 0087 +244 +219 024023 024 025 000 00 202900 2035N 09611W 9774 00272 0081 +244 +224 020028 029 029 001 00 202930 2034N 09610W 9778 00259 0071 +240 +240 017029 030 031 001 01 203000 2032N 09610W 9774 00254 0062 +246 +233 004031 032 033 000 00 203030 2031N 09609W 9769 00254 0055 +247 +240 343029 031 035 002 00 203100 2029N 09608W 9773 00247 0052 +250 +246 310027 029 035 000 00 203130 2028N 09606W 9768 00258 0058 +247 +244 281031 034 032 002 00 203200 2027N 09605W 9771 00263 0067 +240 +240 257044 049 042 004 01 203230 2025N 09604W 9762 00279 0077 +230 +230 246046 048 042 004 05 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Glass half full 203000 2032N 09610W 9774 00254 0062 +246 +233 004031 032 033 000 00 203030 2031N 09609W 9769 00254 0055 +247 +240 343029 031 035 002 00 203100 2029N 09608W 9773 00247 0052 +250 +246 310027 029 035 000 00 203130 2028N 09606W 9768 00258 0058 +247 +244 281031 034 032 002 00 203200 2027N 09605W 9771 00263 0067 +240 +240 257044 049 042 004 01 Edit Steve does this to me so often at the KHOU-TV 11 forum it isn't even funny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Another case where looks can be deceiving... thats a pretty tight low level circulation that the system has been able to wrap up in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Helene AL, 07, 2012081718, , BEST, 0, 203N, 959W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1014, 100, 30, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Another interesting note is it seems that the strongest winds are actually the west winds on the south side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It still looks like they are on the inbound leg. There is almost certainly a circulation based on the low level cloud motions on the edge of the convection on visible imagery. The much bigger question are how strong are the winds? We are probably looking at a TD at this point, but we need to see what the winds look like in the W quadrant where there is deep convection. Edit: Looks like TS Force SFMR winds based on the last set of obs. Hello Helene. I was just clarifying that this wasn't over 100 miles from the coast. Nice little circulation, flight level winds of 45 mph and SFMR around TS force might be enough to say it's a TS but this strikes me more as a TD. EDIT: Actually peak FL of 55 mph, surprising given the appearance and enough for a weak TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Where are the haters now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Supports a 40 mph tropical storm Flight Level Wind: From 240° at 45 knots (From the WSW at ~ 51.7 mph) - The above is a spot wind. - Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Where are the haters now?? We hugged it all along, didn't we... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I was just clarifying that this wasn't over 100 miles from the coast. Nice little circulation, flight level winds of 45 mph and SFMR around TS force might be enough to say it's a TS but this strikes me more as a TD. Oh yea, I wasn't expecting them to find a decent set of 35-40 knot SFMR obs near the center, although this certainly should be enough for the upgrade given they had little rain contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Where are the haters now?? Just because it's getting a name doesn't make the sensible weather any different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Just because it's getting a name doesn't make the sensible weather any different hater...just because of that she will wobble 100 mi NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 pressure lower that pass to 1004.4 and center ever so slightly NE of last pass. Current 210100 2033N 09604W 9768 00247 0044 +258 +238 187013 014 019 000 00 vs previous 203100 2029N 09608W 9773 00247 0052 +250 +246 310027 029 035 000 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 pressure lower that pass to 1004.4 and center ever so slightly NE of last pass. Current 210100 2033N 09604W 9768 00247 0044 +258 +238 187013 014 019 000 00 vs previous 203100 2029N 09608W 9773 00247 0052 +250 +246 310027 029 035 000 00 Winds on the first pass were quite high, because they missed it to the west (center was to the east)...but it looks like there's a decent poleward vector of the motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 ^^ With TDs/weak TSs especially, it isn't always best to connect two succeeding fixes and extrapolate motion. BUt I do hope it is moving a tad East of due North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 ^^ With TDs/weak TSs especially, it isn't always best to connect two succeeding fixes and extrapolate motion. BUt I do hope it is moving a tad East of due North. yes but each wobble is critical given this is a coastal rider. But clearly the first pass did miss the center as winds were 29kts the first pass so we'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looks pretty small and closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Forecast to dissipate inland. ...AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM HELENE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... 4:30 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 Location: 20.6°N 96.1°W Moving: NW at 7 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I'll admit it: I was wrong. Hugs for all. (Still no Ernesto redux, though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Forecast to dissipate inland. ...AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM HELENE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... 4:30 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 Location: 20.6°N 96.1°W Moving: NW at 7 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 45 mph That' s basically the HWRF forecast, which is kind of a compromise. A lot of models have very slow and erratic motion, with some even moving her over land, then taking her back out over the far W Gomex. Going to be interesting. Of course, a slow-mover is a very heavy rain threat for Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Crawling N according to the 3rd pass....winds were a tad lower and convection thinning...she's probably done strengthening for at least a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looks like we're a mere 2 days ahead of last year. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al08/al082011.public_a.003.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Well the GFS has this meandering for days and days so it might be a real thorn in the side for the NHC. Might not be as simple as inland/dissipation Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Well the GFS has this meandering for days and days so it might be a real thorn in the side for the NHC. Might not be as simple as inland/dissipation Sunday. Also a big flood threat if that happens. I'm sure NHC PREFERS quick dissipation, but you can't always get what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Wow, what a great looking system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Wow, what a great looking system! You get my eMail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 4th pass...no TS winds, pressure up a bit, convection still thinning around the center, but it's slowly moving N...with the last fix a tad E of due N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 4th pass...no TS winds, pressure up a bit, convection still thinning around the center, but it's slowly moving N...with the last fix a tad E of due N If it can stay over water for the dmax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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