weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Theres a slight improvement in 6z nam vs 0z, I felt this warranted a 6z model thread. Although unlikely,this may be a glimmer of hope for a good trend. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So your saying... j/k.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DAgxGXWqZU Just felt I had to post it... Hey its late.. :X But about the 6z nam...... The thing that is negative on the 6z nam.. is that the shortwave just is a hair to fast and things just don't get going in time. Everything else.. the features look better. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 hmmm safe to say slight improvement in gfs too. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Through hour 108 on the GFS, there is virtually no qpf just north and west of the I-95 corridor from Philly to Boston. Just cold and dry throughout the period. Simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 gotta say the difference in location and tilt of surface low at 108 6z vs 114 0z could almost be called significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well its somethin at least. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Clipper incoming .. after the brush earlier. XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW the 6z NAM and 6z GFS were in remarkable agreement and completely at odds with the 00z Euro regarding the phasing of the MT s/w and NM s/w. Both are a hair away from a good I-95 hit, the NAM probably would be if you extrap it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW the 6z NAM and 6z GFS were in remarkable agreement and completely at odds with the 00z Euro regarding the phasing of the MT s/w and NM s/w. Both are a hair away from a good I-95 hit, the NAM probably would be if you extrap it The NAM is probably a miss I think but not by much...thats about the most consistent back to back runs of a GFS you can expect from 00Z-06Z the way its been going with all the modeling so far....the GFS is as close as a miss you can get for parts of coastal NJ/NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 the 6z gfs ensemble mean precip area is rather intriguing, major westward shift from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Please limit your discussions to the 6z models. Platitudes about model flip flopping or trends are not particularly useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Clipper incoming .. after the brush earlier. XD Some WSW LES potential if that verifies xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fameso Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is how much snow the 6z GFS expects to fall based on a 10:1 ratio. BTW what are you guys thinking in terms of ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Per er the 6z gfs for ABE. 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.13 " http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kabe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is how much snow the 6z GFS expects to fall based on a 10:1 ratio. BTW what are you guys thinking in terms of ratio? This would probably be 12-15:1 for most coastal locations in the NE/SNE and also BWI/PHL/DC...coastal NJ/and the MA maybe 10-12:1....inland parts of NJ/SNY/SNE IF they got hit 15-18:1....IF...IF...IF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 6z looks pretty exciting for se va. could we have 4 accumulating snows before dec 21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Theres a slight improvement in 6z nam vs 0z, I felt this warranted a 6z model thread. Although unlikely,this may be a glimmer of hope for a good trend. 0z 6z Not an expert by any means but this doesn't look like an improvement to me. Just looks like it's brings the shortwave in 6 to 12 hours quicker thus a more expansive rh field. Also it looks like a flatter pattern with less ridging out west and less digging with the short wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 if the wknd system is OTS shouldnt that help the Xmas event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well its somethin at least. 0z 6z Very consistent look between the 00 and 06. Believe I remember hearing that the precip field will expand to the west and north on the gfs as you get closer to the event. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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