andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Interesting looking threat tomorrow as well for areas closer to my backyard... ...CNTRL AND WRN MT...NRN ID...ERN WA...STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON...FORMING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE ID/WRN MT BORDER FROM SMN TO GTF...AS WELL AS ACROSS S CNTRL MT NEAR BILLINGS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS...BUT WRN MT/NRN ID AND ERN WA WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW HAILSTONES TO APPROACH 1.75 - 2.00 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LCL HEIGHTS END UP BEING AT LEAST MARGINALLY LOW. THE STRONG FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER W ACROSS NRN ID AND ERN WA...AND PERHAPS FAR NERN ORE...AND...THE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD FRONT EMERGE. THE ZONE IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Day 6 and 7 highlighted on the new Day 4-8...second time this year that a D7 has been outlooked... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ..DISCUSSION MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD THIS RUN...WITH BOTH DEPICTING A SLOW EJECTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH/LOW EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAYS 4-5 /THU. AND FRI. JUNE 7-8/ AND INTO/ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE EXPECTED DAY 4 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...AND THEN DAY 5 OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH BEGINS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. HOWEVER...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT. JUNE 9/...AS CONTINUED EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN PLAINS REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DAY 7 /SUN. JUNE 10/ -- OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH SOME THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODELS HINT AT SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS BECOMES A BIT FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED DAY 8...PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF ANY THREAT AREA. HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE DAY 6 AND DAY 7 RISK AREAS -- FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS REGION DAY 6 AND EXTENDING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 7. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE SHEAR EXPECTED...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- WARRANTS INTRODUCTION OF THE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 06/04/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Will end this thread on the 10th now that we have a possible synoptically evident event on the horizon this weekend. Derek should take interest into this as well, I will also inform my relatives in Manitoba to watch the weather closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Will end this thread on the 10th now that we have a possible synoptically evident event on the horizon this weekend. Derek should take interest into this as well, I will also inform my relatives in Manitoba to watch the weather closely. I am definitely interested. Both the GFS and Euro are showing good potential. Looks like a good MCS threat for southern MB Saturday night with a surface based threat on Sunday afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Parts of MT about to be upgraded to a tornado watch... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...W/N-CNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 042328Z - 050030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF WW 354 IN W/N-CNTRL MT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH BY 00Z. DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 TO 35 DEG F AT GTF/HLN ARE CURRENTLY A MITIGATING FACTOR TO TORNADIC POTENTIAL...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AT HVR TO LWT. WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA...ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Spectacular view of the lead MT supercell from Steve Polley's cam. Gorgeous structure. http://www.chasertv.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Spectacular view of the lead MT supercell from Steve Polley's cam. Gorgeous structure. http://www.chasertv.com/ My god that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 lead storm is a beaut http://campl.us/jWqC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 The aqua color is amazing on James Elsner's cam. Big hail likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 Impressive wording on the tornado watch for MT, 50/50 tor probs... DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS MENTIONED IN SVR WW 354 ARE EXPECTED TOSTRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP LWR BASES AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL ESELY FLOW ACROSS N CNTRL MT. GREAT FALLS MT VWP SAMPLES THE 25 KT ELY CURRENT VERY WELL. WITH THE LOW LVL ELY FLOW LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CA/ORE UPR TROUGH ASSUMES MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT/ACCELERATES NNEWD...AND AS TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DECREASE LATER THIS EVE...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 Cell/complex NE of Great Falls is a monster, likely has some very large hail with it and a tornado warning. Moving in the direction of Havre, which has a pop. of nearly ten thousand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Man, didn't realize good terrain extended so far west into MT until seeing some of these streams this evening. Will have to give it a shot someday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 What a shot out of Polley's cam again. Strong circulation/meso now showing up on TFX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY... AT 819 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR HIGHWAY 87 NORTH OF LOMA. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF LOMA...OR 20 MILES WEST OF BIG SANDY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CHOUTEAU COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Tough to make out exactly what's going on, but definitely some significant lowering on Polley's Cam edit: he just turned the camera away from it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 00z GFS looks fairly favorable across the Northern Plains into MN and also across the border into the Prairies/NW Ontario this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 GFS, Euro and CMC all in relative agreement regarding the potential threat this weekend. The instability being shown is impressive (even if the dews are overdone, you're still looking at substantial CAPE)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Still learning the model thing here but I noticed that the best wind/shear parameters don't overlay the best CAPE/Instability. They look to be separated by the front. This might lead to a lack of upper level support I would assume? Just thinking this could be a caveat, but correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Looks like another setup for some more thunderstorm activity across the Texas especially from Dallas-westward. Think there will be a few Isolated cells that will become marginally severe across this area. Still have indices around -5 for LI's, 1200 for SFC CAPE, and 1300 for MLCAPEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Still learning the model thing here but I noticed that the best wind/shear parameters don't overlay the best CAPE/Instability. They look to be separated by the front. This might lead to a lack of upper level support I would assume? Just thinking this could be a caveat, but correct me if i'm wrong. This has been a recurring theme of 2012. You'll look at the H5 forecast for a particular medium-range setup and get excited, only to later realize the front is 300 miles southeast of the best dynamics. This is being discussed over at Stormtrack, as well. A couple people have mentioned this tends to be the result of troughs becoming positive-tilt during ejection into the Plains, of which we've had no shortage whatsoever lately. Actually, though, the 12z GFS looks more optimistic than last night's. Solid 40-50 kt. midlevel flow overspreads the dryline in central ND on Saturday afternoon. I still don't like the lack of strong, backed low-level flow, though; a slightly more progressive solution likely would help here. As of now I don't see myself making the 15-hour haul for this setup, but if later solutions trend toward a 30+ kt. LLJ and more low-level hodograph curvature, that could change. Not having a passport, I'd also need a near-guarantee that the setup won't shift north at the last minute (as N Plains events so often do), since that would put it into MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 Gotta say, with some of these verbatims (particularly the GFS), Saturday is one of the more impressive synpotic setups I've seen for Southern Manitoba in some time, could be right in Derek's wheelhouse. I'd consider taking a trip out there to visit relatives and chase if I wasn't so busy this upcoming week and a half. This will likely highly depend on the placement of the warm front though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 incredible footage right now from StormScape in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Hail covering the ground on the stormscape feed definitely not your traditional supercell. strong couplet on the NE side of the cell, moving due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Incredible motion on the StormScape stream now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Incredible motion on the StormScape stream now lol I love the quality of their stream and its constant uptime, but man is the audio obnoxious at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 0053 COFFEE CREEK FERGUS MT 4735 11008 LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO ON GROUND WITH LARGE PATH AND DAMAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Beast of a couplet on this thing... Structure on Polley's cam is ridiculous. TOG reported with the latest SVS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Beast of a couplet on this thing...Structure on Polley's cam is ridiculous. Got a screen shot? No flash on iPad/iPhone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Whew... What a beautiful Beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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