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Central PA Late Spring 2012


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The cell to the south (near Damascus, MD) just popped a warning, so pretty much some of the same folks that were in the warning for that cell are in another one. Does have a bit of a hook with it and another half decent velocity couplet. Looks similar to the lead storm. Def would watch in the York/Lancaster areas as this is the region these storms could emerge into PA or new ones end up forming.

Holy hell. Huge hook on that one now.

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That lead cell that just got into PA actually looks a good bit more impressive, about 80knots g2g on the base velocity. Though the radar beam gets it at about 6.4k feet at the distance it is from LWX. Still a good chance that a tornado could be on the ground with this, or at least some strong damaging winds.

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Starting to take a bit more of an interest to the south central counties finally as the afternoon wears on. For one i'm watching the main squall line associated with the front starting to acquire a bit more of a nw/se alignment south of Pittsburgh as the overall system deepens. Could signify some strengthening of this line as it moves thru the state and better alignment with the flow (ie strong wind threat). Also what i've noticed from satellite and mesoanalysis is that clouds have thinned a bit between the thunderstorms in the se and the approaching cold front. That has allowed some increasing CAPEs in south central and west central PA. In addition Helicities are also becoming higher (200-300) making for EHI values to start spiking. Couple cells that have fired in Westmoreland and Indiana counties are already showing some signs of rotation, esp the one south of Latrobe.

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Should also say that the extensive clouds with this system have really stunted what could've been potentially a major severe and tornado outbreak today, even down in the DC area. The lack of heating today has made for more of a primarily dynamically driven tornado threat, meaning fast moving low topped supercell type storms and tornadoes that end up forming being generally of the weaker (EF0-2) variety. Not to downplay the severe threat at all, but man this one could've been a doozy.

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Should also say that the extensive clouds with this system have really stunted what could've been potentially a major severe and tornado outbreak today, even down in the DC area. The lack of heating today has made for more of a primarily dynamically driven tornado threat, meaning fast moving low topped supercell type storms and tornadoes that end up forming being generally of the weaker (EF0-2) variety. Not to downplay the severe threat at all, but man this one could've been a doozy.

Yeah. The long lived cell that went over Shrewsbury was a good example.

Featured a pretty tight couplet while traveling through MD, and gradually fell apart as it crossed the Mason Dixon line once it got up into a more stable environment.

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Yeah. The long lived cell that went over Shrewsbury was a good example.

Featured a pretty tight couplet while traveling through MD, and gradually fell apart as it crossed the Mason Dixon line once it got up into a more stable environment.

Produced enough hail to adequately determine it was hail and not large rain drops. No more though, about 20 seconds worth.

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