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Wintry potential Saturday 1/21/2012


famartin

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12z GFS is cold rainstorm for us..

Lehigh valley and poconos are still game. Could be a slosh fest though. You have a CAD sig show up. 850's retreat more N&W than the 2m temps.. not a lengthy distance, but ,as typical, a narrow corridor of ice between the two aforementioned points have the potential.

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From this mornings Mt Holly discussion:

THE COLUMN LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE

COLUMN MOISTENS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...JUST ABOUT ALL

LOCATIONS (EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND

SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY) LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY

NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON JUST HOW THE LOW

LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REACT TO THE PASSING SURFACE WAVE (WHICH NEVER

SEEMS TO SPIN UP UNTIL IT IS PAST OUR LATITUDE).

THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL

OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE

FORECAST AREA. MODEL SPREAD MAKES DETERMINING HOW MUCH BOUNDARY

LAYER WARMING WILL OCCUR...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE COLUMN

REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR NOW FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA IN THE

MORNING.

0000 UTC GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING INTO

EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLUMN COULD GO ISOTHERMAL. IF THIS

OCCURS...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF I-95

CORRIDOR...WITH EVEN THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA SHOWING SOME

POTENTIAL. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS THIS FAR OUT WOULD BE HARD TO

IMPROVE UPON. IT DOES HOWEVER APPEAR THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS

POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

I'm going all in. :whistle:

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12z GFS is cold rainstorm for us..

Lehigh valley and poconos are still game. Could be a slosh fest though. You have a CAD sig show up. 850's retreat more N&W than the 2m temps.. not a lengthy distance, but ,as typical, a narrow corridor of ice between the two aforementioned points have the potential.

It shows some snow for the burbs of philly and more into chester county.

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Not really sure how much i want to sink my teeth into what the 12 Z ECM is showing

UKMET looks like it would be warmer..

Yup, very hard to get excited about this right now based on many models showing warmer scenarios compared to the Euro + the fact this winter has been complete garbage thus far.

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Yup, very hard to get excited about this right now based on many models showing warmer scenarios compared to the Euro + the fact this winter has been complete garbage thus far.

Not really exciting yet, but if we could get 1-2" out of it even, that would be nice. Perhaps the GFS is over-phasing a bit - we'll see.

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Bah!

For Saturday, the 18Z GFS verbatim gives Northern DE and the southern portion of SEPA (including Philly) plain cold rain with no snow to start. My apologies to folks in the northern portion of SEPA and in NEPA or NJ - it's too complicated for this novice wx geek to figure out p-types from the NCEP maps.

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0z GFS is a weird run. It has rain from the clipper on Thursday night, but bucks the trend of warmer temps Saturday and now brings a nice wintry event for all of eastern PA.

Might want to take a close look... its mainly rain at PHL and the changeover line gets right up to ABE.

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Actually scratch that, the non-snow line gets up to the Pocs (had only looked at 925's and sfc temps, doh).

you're too technical! all i had to see was the big pv over alaska and greenland!!!

in all seriousness... long range gfs looks terrible. Doesn't seem quite as warm as the Euro either. We'll see who wins out.

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the one thing that the GFS has been relatively consistent in is a prolonged sleet/icy rain round across the upper N/W burbs & Lehigh Valley...it's shown this in a number of runs the last couple of days. EC shows it a lil bit (mostly over the mountains in Central PA) but I do think there's potential for a decent round of sleet/ice for some in the region. My guess would be lehigh valley, berks, Poconos would be the "best bet" for any prolonged sleet/icy rain...I think the burbs outside of ChescoWX, iceman56, and Quakertown would transition over to rain eventually.

The "good" news is that this is a daytime event so unless it pours sleet ala March '07 travel might not be as piss poor.

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the one thing that the GFS has been relatively consistent in is a prolonged sleet/icy rain round across the upper N/W burbs & Lehigh Valley...it's shown this in a number of runs the last couple of days. EC shows it a lil bit (mostly over the mountains in Central PA) but I do think there's potential for a decent round of sleet/ice for some in the region. My guess would be lehigh valley, berks, Poconos would be the "best bet" for any prolonged sleet/icy rain...I think the burbs outside of ChescoWX, iceman56, and Quakertown would transition over to rain eventually.

The "good" news is that this is a daytime event so unless it pours sleet ala March '07 travel might not be as piss poor.

Feb 2007. It was just before Valentines Day. Otherwise, I completely agree with your post.

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