phlwx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is it a burp, or a correction? I wouldn't be surprised if it burped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if it burped again. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if anything happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6Z GFS Ensembles state the following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/GiPe1OiKQuk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://youtu.be/GiPe1OiKQuk True that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 fwiw, the s/w in the Southern Plains is much weaker on the Euro last night compared to 12z yesterday (also a weaker upper trough/kicker)...result is a flat wave (no storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i love how the gfs being a weak wave and like 300 miles south of us still isnt all snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Towel has been thrown by NWS for here resulting in a nice sunny cool weekend. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Towel has been thrown by NWS for here resulting in a nice sunny cool weekend. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. not buying it but i'd take this over a wet xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Burp run on the Euro? After seeing the Euro capitulate to the GFS for this run, I had to check the calendar to make sure it wasn't December 21, 2112. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just thought I'd share, I think they covered all the possibilities...although I think they're over doing the possible snow scenario. http://abcnews.go.com/US/noreaster-bring-white-christmas-millions/story?id=15203438#.TvHodF08PZg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 sounds to me like the boxing day storm surprise again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 sounds to me like the boxing day storm surprise again? yea, minus cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yea, minus cold air Sometimes we have to fall on the sword and just live vicariously to make Mike2010 happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just thought I'd share, I think they covered all the possibilities...although I think they're over doing the possible snow scenario. http://abcnews.go.co...38#.TvHodF08PZg the video mentions rain for big cities and article has "While blizzard conditions may have ended over the U.S. for now, a Nor'easter is now a possibility for December 24 - 25, which might mean a white Christmas for major cities along the East Coast from Washington, D.C. to Boston and hectic travel conditions for millions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 "Might mean" ...those words snuck in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 "Might mean" ...those words snuck in there snow weenies don't see that part are are now calling for a blizzard in the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB's latest "But look folks the theory is simple here. I am not going to change a pattern recognition idea based on model waffling. In fact I have the model that would make the snow. The 72 hour JMA has a weaker northern branch that the GFS is jumping on over the lakes and is most certainly going to phase the system coming into the northern rockies with the trough over the southwest. So this is not over by any means" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB's latest "But look folks the theory is simple here. I am not going to change a pattern recognition idea based on model waffling. In fact I have the model that would make the snow. The 72 hour JMA has a weaker northern branch that the GFS is jumping on over the lakes and is most certainly going to phase the system coming into the northern rockies with the trough over the southwest. So this is not over by any means" I wouldn't be shocked if the 0z runs were a hiccup, but I still don't see how, even if everything trends back, we're going to get snow in the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if the 0z runs were a hiccup, but I still don't see how, even if everything trends back, we're going to get snow in the big cities. blowtorch adam has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Adam, Agree....but I think he still has a shot for his 1" or more on the ground N and W of I95 by Christmas night....with a few flakes seen in the air of the big cities I wouldn't be shocked if the 0z runs were a hiccup, but I still don't see how, even if everything trends back, we're going to get snow in the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Adam, Agree....but I think he still has a shot for his 1" or more on the ground N and W of I95 by Christmas night....with a few flakes seen in the air of the big cities How far N and W? I could see places with elevation sneaking out an inch, maybe, but it's hard to see the BL not being an issue for most in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Adam, Agree....but I think he still has a shot for his 1" or more on the ground N and W of I95 by Christmas night....with a few flakes seen in the air of the big cities That seems pretty reasonable. It's annoying that even if we get a good track, we don't have any cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That is the million $ question....JBs map had the 1" line at least 30 miles W of I95 and I would bet someone with elevation (+850ft) will eek out an official "White Christmas" How far N and W? I could see places with elevation sneaking out an inch, maybe, but it's hard to see the BL not being an issue for most in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That is the million $ question....JBs map had the 1" line at least 30 miles W of I95 and I would bet someone with elevation (+850ft) will eek out an official "White Christmas" Make it 50 miles and I think he could verify. Gonna be tough outside of you and Redsky to get much more than a few flakes with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Henry M. on board (till model run change), lock n load, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I really don't like to bad mouth a professional...but Henry is kind of the face that replaced JB on accuweather.com and he is to be kind ......a model reader with absolutely no forecasting out of him at all. Love em or hate him at least JB put a stake in the ground and would not use models for a forecast...just support. I may be dropping my accuweather sub real soon. It's a bit of an excess to have both Weatherbell and Accu Wx Henry M. on board (till model run change), lock n load, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Henry M. on board (till model run change), lock n load, Is it possible Henry's pen leaked? What model shows our area getting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I really don't like to bad mouth a professional...but Henry is kind of the face that replaced JB on accuweather.com and he is to be kind ......a model reader with absolutely no forecasting out of him at all. Love em or hate him at least JB put a stake in the ground and would not use models for a forecast...just support. I may be dropping my accuweather sub real soon. It's a bit of an excess to have both Weatherbell and Accu Wx In terms of bang for your buck, Bastardi is 100x better than Margusity. You know you have to take the JB hypecasts with a grain of salt, but he actually has talent for sniffing out forecasts, even if he always goes for the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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