MoWeatherguy Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 New Euro came in very similar to last nite's run, maybe a tad drier. Still advertising a rain to mix scenario most locations FAY-TUL on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Whats gonna hurt us this time is warm ground temps from today! grrrrr lol. I still think most of us should see 1-3 inches if it stays on track. Hell at this point i will be happy just to see it snow, plus I want to try out this new mode my camcorder has that I did not even know about after 3 yrs lol. Super slo motion mode, should look neat with snow falling if I do it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Now my forecast says rain before 3pm tomorrow then snow/sleet between 9pm and midnight then freezing drizzle after midnight, let the uncertainties begin once again sighhhhh. Will wind up being another slop bag mix before the cold arrives and no snow? Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Now my forecast says rain before 3pm tomorrow then snow/sleet between 9pm and midnight then freezing drizzle after midnight, let the uncertainties begin once again sighhhhh. Will wind up being another slop bag mix before the cold arrives and no snow? Who knowsYeah I think the point forecasts are gonna be all over the place the next 24 hrs or so. As bad as they have missed some of their calls here lately hard to sink your teeth into very much right now. But I agree the warm ground will limit us. I think you should do fairly well in your area. Hope the slo mode works out well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Yea the camcorder can record like 30 seconds at a time in 240 frames per second. I tried it with water in the sink lol and looked pretty neat. I think the faster something is moving the neater it will look. If its dark though forget it as this sony camcorder isnt very good in pitch black, may just upload the video to youtube so my sister can see it cause shes like me and loves the snow, if it snows lol. heres to hoping we all can get at least something from this!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 00 NAM wants to develop a pretty intense band of snow on the far NW side of the precip shield. Lot of sleet to the SE of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 00 NAM wants to develop a pretty intense band of snow on the far NW side of the precip shield. Lot of sleet to the SE of that. Yea 00z nam is borderline at hour 27 here with a mix of snow/sleet. 18z gfs(if thats the latest Im looking at) looks like rain primarily for the same time period. Im looking at surface precip type maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Precip looks really meager on the NAM though. JLN .11; SGF .32. Most of that either rain or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory is out. The latest RAP keep developing a dry slot over this area though with the best snow back into Kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Arctic airmass is oozing SE a bit quicker than the models think still. RAP increased precip amounts. Looking at dewpoints, we may wetbulb to freezing if we get precip. (at least in SE KS/ W MO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Arctic airmass is oozing SE a bit quicker than the models think still. RAP increased precip amounts. Looking at dewpoints, we may wetbulb to freezing if we get precip. (at least in SE KS/ W MO) Yeah already down to 36 here. We may wetbulb down quickly with some heavier precip moving in. I think we may see more ice than what was anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's 38 here in Bentonville as of 1:00 PM. Already getting light rain. How many degrees decrease is there in the temp with a typical wet bulb effect? Is it just a couple of degrees or can it be more significant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Depends on how much dry air is in place, usually a few degrees though. Your dewpoint probably won't get you below freezing. I noticed Tulsa added "Thunder" in with the wording of occasional freezing rain and sleet for their N OK counties. RAP has pushed precip totals up to around 0.4 or so here, and more just SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 does that mean more ice for us here JOMO ?? in kjln , or should we go by what sgf is saying like a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch on elevated surfaces ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 does that mean more ice for us here JOMO ?? in kjln , or should we go by what sgf is saying like a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch on elevated surfaces ???? I don't really know how we're going to get up to 42 today with rain this afternoon (like they are saying) when we are down to 34 and our dewpoint is below freezing. Temps keep falling behind the front as it's 28 in Chanute. They have us at 0.1-0.3" of ice tonight with around 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I don't really know how we're going to get up to 42 today with rain this afternoon (like they are saying) when we are down to 34 and our dewpoint is below freezing. Temps keep falling behind the front as it's 28 in Chanute. They have us at 0.1-0.3" of ice tonight with around 1" of snow. Same for here 1-2" forecasted and some ice after midnight. I also noticed my temp is dropping way faster then they anticipated, I guess this could be a good thing before precip begins....down to 36 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Some sleet in Bartlesville with 31 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Down to 33 here with light-moderate rain. Now down to 32 with moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Down to 33 here with light-moderate rain. Now down to 32 with moderate rain. 36 here and raining pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 32 here now as well. Mod rain. Should be seeing some freezing on exposed objects pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 30 at the airport, and 31 here. Accumulating light/moderate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Springfield is awful. They changed the forecast to high of 42 with rain in an earlier update for this afternoon...... For tonight it was 1" of snow and 0.1 to 0.3" of ice. Now the update says... Freezing rain, temp near 30, 0.1-0.3" of daytime ice accumulation....... Now tonight 0.1-0.3" of accumulation of freezing rain and 1-2" of snow. Now we are back to: Late Afternoon: Freezing rain. Steady temperature around 30. Wind chill values as low as 18. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Tonight: Snow and freezing drizzle, becoming all freezing drizzle after midnight. Low around 22. Wind chill values as low as 11. North wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Springfield is awful. They changed the forecast to high of 42 with rain in an earlier update for this afternoon...... For tonight it was 1" of snow and 0.1 to 0.3" of ice. Now the update says... Freezing rain, temp near 30, 0.1-0.3" of daytime ice accumulation....... Now tonight 0.1-0.3" of accumulation of freezing rain and 1-2" of snow. Now we are back to: Late Afternoon: Freezing rain. Steady temperature around 30. Wind chill values as low as 18. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Tonight: Snow and freezing drizzle, becoming all freezing drizzle after midnight. Low around 22. Wind chill values as low as 11. North wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Yea I said it many times their forecasts are always bad it seems lol, nonstop confusing changes like they have no clue whats going on. Whats new right lol, on a sidenote my temp is down to 32.7 now and is dropping fast with the rain falling.....could this be more of a zr issue, I really hate freezing rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 122145Z - 130315Z SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NERN OK NEWD INTO W-CNTRL IL AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SSW. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.15 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN HEAVIER SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BANDS. DISCUSSION...AT 21Z...RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OK AND NWRN AR SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY RUNS FROM A BVO-20 N JLN-IRK LINE...WITH THE WET-BULB ZERO LINE RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY TUL-JLN-COU-UIN. A COMBINATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE FREEZING LINE TO MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 21-03Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD MAINTAIN ASCENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BANDING AND POTENTIALLY SOME RESIDUAL UPRIGHT BUOYANCY MAINTAINING OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP RATES. THE NRN PART OF THE MCD AREA IS LIKELY TO CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW BY 00Z...WITH NARROW TRANSITION ZONES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE SNOW AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS GETS PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not sure what Ice storm warning criteria is here anymore. One article I found says over 1/4" ice but another newer looking one says over 1". Anybody know? Already freezing on higher objects here and still a lot of precip to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not sure what Ice storm warning criteria is here anymore. One article I found says over 1/4" ice but another newer looking one says over 1". Anybody know? Already freezing on higher objects here and still a lot of precip to come. I think it's either 1/4-1/2" Edit: That little storm NW of Jay, OK is an elevated supercell. It's been going for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I think it's either 1/4-1/2" I wonder how much consideration is being given to that possibility tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Had a light layer of ZR here that glazed cars lightly. Just east of here in Shawnee the METAR is reporting thundersnow. KSNL 122235Z AUTO 01011G21KT 1 3/4SM TSSN SCT014 SCT024 OVC037 01/00 A2992 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 LTG DSNT N NE AND S P0002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 My tipping spoon must have froze up at 0.16" of precip. Probably 0.05 of that was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 already .60 precip here this afternoon. Getting crunchy around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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