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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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I think the models are struggling with the pattern, they have been very flip-floppy

My dream for that little cutoff system would be it hanging around and forming a storm like the Euro did the other night or like what P003 and P007 of the 12z ensembles show.

http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f180.gif

Instead the 12z GFS just has it sitting over Texas before it meanders across Louisiana and the Euro has it crushed by the N Stream.

But it's just a snow dream..... since I'm having snow withdrawals.

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Really is no consistency. 18z GFS holds the system farther back like the 12z Euro and has it vacationing over the SW for a little bit, then kicks it out ahead of any cold air so it looks like mostly a rain solution.

usapcpprstmp2m177.gif

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Gotta love the GFS though, it runs 4 times a day and comes up with a different solution each time, lol

12z, we're a pretty potent closed low over Texas.

usavrthgtgrd500mb153.gif

18z, well we changed out mind, now we're a closed low vacationing over the southwest.

usavrthgtgrd500mb147.gif

00z, now we're an open wave but we decided to head to Mexico and SW TX.

usavrthgtgrd500mb141.gif

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LOL...that's good stuff!! I really don't care which GFS wins out, except it better be the one that brings us the most snow!!!! :)

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LOL...that's good stuff!! I really don't care which GFS wins out, except it better be the one that brings us the most snow!!!! :)

What snow :( ? Looks like this map is showing 0.5 or so from that cold front at 216 probably. lol

There isn't even a fantasy storm to follow.

usaasnowipersfc384j.gif

The really cold air is stuck in the 300+ time range and it isn't getting closer. Things have been looking good in the 348 time range for around a week now but it never moves closer.

At least the BCS bowl games have been good this year.

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At least the BCS bowl games have been good this year.

And my first year growing greens in a cold frame has been a terrific success. Beginners luck. :D

No way we skate through the season without a few super interesting scenarios though...it always seems like the current weather (when we don't like it) will never end....but in this part of the country there is always something right around the corner to liven things up. In fact, there is more consistent weather action here than anywhere I have lived (New England, Mid-Atlantic, Oregon, AZ/NM).

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And my first year growing greens in a cold frame has been a terrific success. Beginners luck. :D

No way we skate through the season without a few super interesting scenarios though...it always seems like the current weather (when we don't like it) will never end....but in this part of the country there is always something right around the corner to liven things up. In fact, there is more consistent weather action here than anywhere I have lived (New England, Mid-Atlantic, Oregon, AZ/NM).

Nice, my grass that I planted before the tornado that I thought would take hold before it got so hot so quickly looks to be coming back. I thought it was dead.

Yeah, I'm sure the Euro will probably have something completely different when it starts here in a few minutes. I was just hoping we'd get some good snow before the sun angle starts ruining it and the more days that pass with nothing to really follow is getting on my nerves, lol

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00z Euro phases the system coming out of the SW with the system coming out of the north, I think it may be a bit too far east of here (pops a surface low near the KY/TN border, but the phase happens after 180 so no precip maps. The southern stream system may produce some rain prior to that though. After that, the Euro looks pretty cold, at least at 850 MB.

usaprmslmsl192k.gif

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Soooooo depressing...this is probably the worst "winter" we have had in a very long time. About to give up on snow....:(

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Edit: Close, but not close enough. I'm having Deja-Vu, didn't we have a system like this a few weeks ago when it looked like N AR and SE MO may get snow?

12z Euro is interesting if we could find some additional cold air. Should be in the 180 range on Wunderground to see if anything happens.

usahgt500mb168s.gif

usaprmslmsl168d.gif

usatmp850mb168.gif

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Soooooo depressing...this is probably the worst "winter" we have had in a very long time. About to give up on snow.... :(

Back on the positive side today!

I wouldn't give up yet, there are a lot of signs that things will be changing within the next two weeks. The 18z GFS went back to a gradient type look. Both the Euro and GFS are onboard with some blocking and at least it getting colder soon (within 10 days) due to a trough in the east. The only issues in the long range may be where the cold air sets up at and if there is a SE Ridge.

18z GFS maps showing things changing up towards Alaska and the N pole.

Currently lower heights are located near Alaska:

nhgpa500mb000r.gif

10 days out, they are gone:

nhgpa500mb240p.gif

Going even farther out, high pressure really wants to build up there.

nhgpa500mb312.gif

This is going to help weaken the polar vortex and bring a possible -AO with it, which will help us get cold air down here.

For an explanation, read here:

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

Looking at the 12z teleconnection indices on this site:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html

You can see the GFS says the AO will go negative pretty quickly while the Euro holds it slightly positive until Day 10ish.

Both operational models do show a -PNA which would indicate a better chance for the cold to be located over the western US.

PNA explanation here:

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

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Wake me when we get models talking about cold and snow within 12 hours of the event. ;)

Yeah I wish there was something to track, other than that storm next weekish that looks like it's going to be rain chased by cold currently. So... I have to settle for looking at changes and now both the Euro and GFS are showing those changes, not sure how long they will stick around though.

Plus Joplinmet, the magical meteorologist said changes and Arctic air would come mid-Jan back in mid-Dec. He saw it in his crystal ball. ;)

50272_77821816393_6755395_n.jpg

Good analysis and links JoMo. Thanks for your input here man..

Thanks. Winter is the only time I actually track this kind of stuff and this year has been pretty terrible for that. The ups and downs with not knowing what will happen are a pain as well so chasing snow is like chasing a high or something. The models (well the GFS at least) will probably flip-flop around for awhile. I'm just worried about how far S the cold air will make it, hope it doesn't get stuck north of the area.

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That picture cracks me up. I do know the guy who started that facebook page, but that pic that he got up is crazy, lol. Ya I am getting more and more confident. I think we will have about a 3 up to 4 week stretch of some much better winter potential. After the past two winters I am not asking for much. But come on, give me at least two good storms. That is all I ask. Mother nature can be a _______

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That picture cracks me up. I do know the guy who started that facebook page, but that pic that he got up is crazy, lol. Ya I am getting more and more confident. I think we will have about a 3 up to 4 week stretch of some much better winter potential. After the past two winters I am not asking for much. But come on, give me at least two good storms. That is all I ask. Mother nature can be a _______

I hope so as well, but you never know how far S the cold will make it this far out. 00z GFS is running now, but I feel it's like rolling the dice on what it will show this run.

Hope you don't get any hate mail for saying it's going to be colder, lol

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I hope so as well, but you never know how far S the cold will make it this far out. 00z GFS is running now, but I feel it's like rolling the dice on what it will show this run.

Hope you don't get any hate mail for saying it's going to be colder, lol

Well the good thing is in that profession they can get away with being wrong lol. I will say this though I follow dougs blogs everyday and each day I find his cycle patterns more and more fascinating and I never really bought into the long range crap. Hes one of the very few meteorologists I actually trust lol. When we lived in kc back in the day lezak and some other dude were my favs, cant remember the other guys name now lol, he had glasses I believe.

Anyways where the hell is the cold! I wanna see some snow this season jeesh. And to the other poster that said he lived in the mid atlantic, Nothing can top the winters i seen there in south jersey growing up as kid! But location was everything so go figure. I will say I never seen more wild drastic sudden changes like we get out here though. Hell when I was in my late teens we use to see a foot of snow a week, a couple years we were getting hammered every few days with 8"+ snow storms....it was nuts!

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The way I see it KS and MO will be stay on the cold side of things and OK and TX will remain warm side. That winter battle zone is going to sit up right on top of me ( in between Wichita and Tulsa). South of there seriously may not be seeing any winter weather...accept maybe ice around OKC and maybe further south than there. Some guy on accuweather pretty much summed it up: OK/KS line MO/AR line is the battle zone. This makes me really sad for a few reasons. First, we will get extremely cold BEHIND each storm that comes through and stay under the rain....2nd, we will get to watch ppl 50 miles away get a blizzard and we could get only rain or WORSE ice....3rd, I'm not sold this arctic outbreak is gonna stay around. Granted, I am in no way a met, but just an common gal looking at the models. I would be curious to hear what everyone else thinks.

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The way I see it KS and MO will be stay on the cold side of things and OK and TX will remain warm side. That winter battle zone is going to sit up right on top of me ( in between Wichita and Tulsa). South of there seriously may not be seeing any winter weather...accept maybe ice around OKC and maybe further south than there. Some guy on accuweather pretty much summed it up: OK/KS line MO/AR line is the battle zone. This makes me really sad for a few reasons. First, we will get extremely cold BEHIND each storm that comes through and stay under the rain....2nd, we will get to watch ppl 50 miles away get a blizzard and we could get only rain or WORSE ice....3rd, I'm not sold this arctic outbreak is gonna stay around. Granted, I am in no way a met, but just an common gal looking at the models. I would be curious to hear what everyone else thinks.

It really does depend on where the cold air sets up shop, there's no knowing at this point really since the models can't nail down an upper level disturbance from a week out, Both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro indicate there may be some light snow or flurries with the passage of the cold front in a week or so. After that, who knows.

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The way I see it KS and MO will be stay on the cold side of things and OK and TX will remain warm side. That winter battle zone is going to sit up right on top of me ( in between Wichita and Tulsa). South of there seriously may not be seeing any winter weather...accept maybe ice around OKC and maybe further south than there. Some guy on accuweather pretty much summed it up: OK/KS line MO/AR line is the battle zone. This makes me really sad for a few reasons. First, we will get extremely cold BEHIND each storm that comes through and stay under the rain....2nd, we will get to watch ppl 50 miles away get a blizzard and we could get only rain or WORSE ice....3rd, I'm not sold this arctic outbreak is gonna stay around. Granted, I am in no way a met, but just an common gal looking at the models. I would be curious to hear what everyone else thinks.

Looking at the models this far out, all I would feel comfortable forecasting is arctic air towards the middle to end of the month. Remember, large, dense arctic highs originating in NW Canada/Alaska tend to slide very easily down the lee of the Rockies, outpacing forecast model's predictions of the surge of cold air. I would tend to hedge towards the battle zone setting up shop further south then you see in the model surface depictions 1-2 weeks out, especially if we get a massive arctic high in Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada. Just my two cents.

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Looking at the models this far out, all I would feel comfortable forecasting is arctic air towards the middle to end of the month. Remember, large, dense arctic highs originating in NW Canada/Alaska tend to slide very easily down the lee of the Rockies, outpacing forecast model's predictions of the surge of cold air. I would tend to hedge towards the battle zone setting up shop further south then you see in the model surface depictions 1-2 weeks out, especially if we get a massive arctic high in Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada. Just my two cents.

That's true, I'd be worried about ice storms in that situation.

The Euro at 240 shows a lot of cold just N of the border but I'm not sure how much southward progress it makes.

usatmp850mb240e.gif

I have read that the Euro ensembles in the longer range show a -PNA which usually means there's a trough in the west and the SE Ridge tries to pump up but I'm not sure since i can't see them. If that's the case then we could see storms being ejected out of that system causing periodic bouts of ice and snow or rain depending on where everything gets set up. I definitely like being on the eastern side of a trough though.

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ouamber, I don't think the arctic air will stick around long to say. I think late next week will be that first blast that gives up cold air. Then over the next several weeks we will continue to see blasts of cold air. But no, I don't think that it will be in the teens and 20s for highs for a month. I just think we will see much colder blasts of air over that time frame. And with a little luck maybe we can get a storm or two to form.

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ouamber, I don't think the arctic air will stick around long to say. I think late next week will be that first blast that gives up cold air. Then over the next several weeks we will continue to see blasts of cold air. But no, I don't think that it will be in the teens and 20s for highs for a month. I just think we will see much colder blasts of air over that time frame. And with a little luck maybe we can get a storm or two to form.

I have to digress... though it might not be quite THAT low. A month like Jan 1979 or even Feb 1899 is not out of the question.

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I have to digress... though it might not be quite THAT low. A month like Jan 1979 or even Feb 1899 is not out of the question.

What makes you think that we will get into a sustained colder pattern? I thought the same but even the arctic blast next week looks pretty transient.

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Thought we may have had something on the 144 Euro, nope, get squashed. Oh well, looks like heights continue to build around Alaska and up north in the longer range, we'll see.

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Any other year we'd be getting excited about the snowstorm the GFS would be showing here... but this year, the cold just isn't around... yet.

The crappy thing that will probably happen is we will get the cold, but then we won't have any storm systems, then as the storm systems pick up, the cold will retreat. That seems about right.

usapcpprstmp2m120o.gif

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