JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah it's a bit farther south with precip because the upper low is a bit farther south this run when compared to the 06z NAM. Looks like a larger area of heavier precip but not as intense. It's a little bit slower as well. Heavier snow over N Central OK with 12+ and SW MO/NW AR with 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes NE OK and all of NW AR getting buried this run again. Total precip shield has shifted south but the low placement actually ends up a bit further west at h60. May be trying to compromise now with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes NE OK and all of NW AR getting buried this run again. Total precip shield has shifted south but the low placement actually ends up a bit further west at h60. May be trying to compromise now with the GFS. Now let's see if the GFS plays nice this run. System really cranks up on the NAM. While I know the NAM is overly "wet"... even if you reduce it by approximately 10% or so you are still looking at a decent snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Man maybe Im looking at things wrong, looks like the NAM really backed precip off for here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now let's see if the GFS plays nice this run. System really cranks up on the NAM. While I know the NAM is overly "wet"... even if you reduce it by approximately 10% or so you are still looking at a decent snow area wide. I need it to head back north again. That is a sharp cutoff just across the border in Kansas, lol I'm going with the 21z SREF... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I still feel like most of us in SW MO will be missing out on this before its said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe its gonna be one of those weird storms where mother nature will surprise us all.....ya just never know around here with how fast things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 But the SREF is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We're tracking a storm that is going to produce a lot of snow for parts of the area. That hasn't happened in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nick from Doug's station is going with the GFS and this for amounts: 3" Joplin, 5.0" Cassville Here's the NAM "clown map": http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif I think that spot of 18+" is over Ozark's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll take Nick's map any Christmas Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NWS Tulsa sticking to their guns despite the 00z NAM. 000 FXUS64 KTSA 240317 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 917 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF KFSM WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR SERN OK AND NWRN AR. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLES AT 00Z IS RAPIDLY TRANSLATING E AND IS OVER WRN OK ATTM. WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TRENDS REFLECTED IN ONGOING FORECAST LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING. SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT IS TRANSLATING INTO NRN CA ATTM PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS OF MAINTAINING A MORE NRN TRACK AS COMPARED TO MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT OF IT ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...STILL BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS MODEL IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING IT WILL OCCUR AND THUS OUR WINTER STORM WATCH STILL SEEMS GOOD AS IS FOR NOW. WILL FRESHEN IT UP BUT AM NOT GOING TO ADD NRN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z GFS is a bit farther south of it's 18z run. It really likes NW Arkansas as the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I really dont like being this close to the bullseye this far out.... Im almost sure it will snow here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now to just wait on Dream Crusher Euro to show up with snow across southern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now to just wait on Dream Crusher ™ Euro to show up with snow across southern Arkansas. I sure hope not. But arent we getting out of the euros better range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It is situations like this that makes weather a lot of fun. Nonetheless, I don't think we can make the critical fine tune adjustments on the storm track until the 12Z RAOBS are ingested into the models. Even the vaunted EC can only do so much when the storm is incompletely sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anybody got a 0z GFS snow map yet? The sites I use normally take awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thxs JCWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I sure hope not. But arent we getting out of the euros better range? It's always pretty good. Best around Day 5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z Euro isn't that much different from it's 12z run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I know they are the 06z models, but they moved back NW a bit. Also, Tulsa has pulled the trigger with a Winter Storm Warning for most areas of their forecast region, essentially along and south of US 412. The rest of their forecast area is in a Winter Storm Watch. SGF remains insistent on hugging the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I know they are the 06z models, but they moved back NW a bit. Also, Tulsa has pulled the trigger with a Winter Storm Warning for most areas of their forecast region, essentially along and south of US 412. The rest of their forecast area is in a Winter Storm Watch. SGF remains insistent on hugging the EURO... Normally I root for the Euro but let's hope it's wrong in this situation. I'm a little perplexed that since the NW trend has continued for the past 24 hours that NWS/local TV seem to all be sticking to an I-40 storm. This seems inconsistent with the data (outside of the Euro). Maybe since the NAM is spitting out ridiculous snowfall amounts they aren't giving it much merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SGF had a good discussion this morning on why they feel this system will eventually end up more in line with the Euro, vs the NAM. A Euro/GFS blend appears the route to go. And the 12z NAM has trended back a bit further south, which looks a lot like the GFS now. Looking excellent for all of NW AR and most of OK. Anybody from I-44 north in OK and MO will be biting their nails on this one as we will be fighting the dry air and thus a sharp cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ugh, so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes this could be torture for the MO contingent on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes this could be torture for the MO contingent on here. That's what I was thinking. I'd rather it miss by 500 miles than 5 miles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's what I was thinking. I'd rather it miss by 500 miles than 5 miles lol Yeah I hear you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 9z SREF continues to be impressive. Is it normally very reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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