OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What's with the models/ensembles flip flopping all over the place and showing zero consistency? I'm not even looking forward to anything beyond 2 days. Weather forecasting is digressing, let alone advancing in this day and age of modern technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Nice long-range discussion out of KBUF: LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY POSITIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/ INDEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION RELOADS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLOW ORBIT THROUGH PHASE 4-5 OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. A LOOK AT MJO COMPOSITES FOR THE EXPECTED OUTCOME OF PHASE 4-5 ACROSS NORTH AMERICA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS...ANY SHOTS OF COLD AIR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BRIEF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. A LOGICAL PROGRESSION OF THE MJO PAST THE END OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST...AND ALSO THE EXPECTATION OF A BETTER CHANCE OF NEGATIVE AO BY MIDWINTER GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION /QBO/...EXPECT A PROGRESSION TOWARDS MORE CONSISTENT COLD AND SNOW BY LATE DECEMBER OR THE START OF JANUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So the Euro is more accurate then the GFS, either way both are pretty horrible beyond 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So the Euro is more accurate then the GFS, either way both are pretty horrible beyond 3-4 days. It was discrediting your statement about regressing. Models have been improving and will continue to improve. I think some of it has to do with we look out so far nowadays. 10 years ago...we'd be talking about day 5 instead of day 10 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/#!/2011/11/2011-2012-winter-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Thanks for the excellent outlook--very informative and accessible. I'm hoping I am far enough north and west to avoid too many slop events. What's your gut feeling for me here in the BGM area? I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...er-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...er-outlook.html I really enjoyed your clear explanations of the various factors. Impressive work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...er-outlook.html Nice forecast! but your snowfall prediction for buf is a lil too high lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 coating of snow this morning...looks measurable...I wonder if BUF got enough. I was actually hoping to break the latest measurable record which was set dec. 3, 1899 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...er-outlook.html good read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well on balance I'd much rather be in BUF next week than over here. The gradient from Sunday night onwards has far western NY under 0C 850 generally. Maybe you can score some synoptic from that wave coming out.... I'll be treking out I-90 to do some work in ROC area and then out in Hamilton around 12/12 .....hope we have a cold pattern then. coating of snow this morning...looks measurable...I wonder if BUF got enough. I was actually hoping to break the latest measurable record which was set dec. 3, 1899 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 coating of snow this morning...looks measurable...I wonder if BUF got enough. I was actually hoping to break the latest measurable record which was set dec. 3, 1899 lol. 0.4" was reported at the airport :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well on balance I'd much rather be in BUF next week than over here. The gradient from Sunday night onwards has far western NY under 0C 850 generally. Maybe you can score some synoptic from that wave coming out.... I'll be treking out I-90 to do some work in ROC area and then out in Hamilton around 12/12 .....hope we have a cold pattern then. yeah it definitely looks better around here than eastern NY...maybe we'll get lucky at the PV will get far enough south to give some occasional lake-effect with some synoptic waves from the SW mixed in for good measure. It does look like it could be a decent ice storm set-up, but they seem tough to come by for the Niagara Frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 this could be somewhat interesting for ice. I wish I could see the low-level temperatures...but the warm front is to our south and there is a 1031 mb high with some decent cold air over Ontario and Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I wonder when Toronto will see it's first 1-2" snowfall? i had been hoping for maybe this upcoming week, but it isn't looking likely. Both Environment Canada and accuweather seem to be calling for a mild winter in southern and eastern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I've posted my 2011-2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...er-outlook.html It seems like you're a little more optimistic than Environment Canada. I prefer the 1975-76 analog from 1974-75, which was a bust down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I wonder when Toronto will see it's first 1-2" snowfall? i had been hoping for maybe this upcoming week, but it isn't looking likely. Both Environment Canada and accuweather seem to be calling for a mild winter in southern and eastern Ontario. you didn't see snow from that morning clipper?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Syracuse looks to see 170-180 inches. I love you (Only if your right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I really enjoyed your clear explanations of the various factors. Impressive work. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nice forecast! but your snowfall prediction for buf is a lil too high lol . Maybe............But it should be a very good year for LES everywhere on the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 the exact position of the gradient later next week will have huge implications on lake-effect snow potential. 12z ECMWF looks really nice for east of the lakes later next week...but we are talking about day 7..and with a very tight gradient pattern with a piece of the PV over Hudson Bay and a strong La Nina SE ridge...the models will continue to swing back and forth at how exactly far south and east this cold air intrusion from Canada gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 you didn't see snow from that morning clipper?. There was some wet snow. Didn't stick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 0z gfs is absolutely frigid lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 looks like ottawa could be on the snow side later this week while montreal is on the rain side. quite the tight boundary as these waves travel up the BZ. still a chance that it trends a bit more amped with a lesser cold push through the ottawa valley, ending up as rain there.....that has been the nonstop trend all fall.....would be nice to see that break finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I have to say, it's a ways out and probably not worth getting too hung up on right now...but I kinda like what the euro is doing with the PV heading into the week of Dec 11th. I haven't looked at the ensembles, but the latest operational run has the PV slowly shifting southward toward the climatologically favored "sweet spot" for heavy LES in Buffalo. There is a lakes cutter on the 10th, but I'm becoming mildly interested in what may potentially happen immediately after this lakes cutter: Interestingly enough, the latest CPC ensemble composite is showing negative geopotential height anomalies in the Great Lakes/Northeast centered around this period as well: I wouldn't give up on Thursday's potential event, either. At this point I don't see it being anything prolific, but it could be a bit of an appetizer to what *may* be a much bigger deal shaping up for early the following week. At any rate, there is certainly potential on the not-too-distant horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I have to say, it's a ways out and probably not worth getting too hung up on right now...but I kinda like what the euro is doing with the PV heading into the week of Dec 11th. I haven't looked at the ensembles, but the latest operational run has the PV slowly shifting southward toward the climatologically favored "sweet spot" for heavy LES in Buffalo. There is a lakes cutter on the 10th, but I'm becoming mildly interested in what may potentially happen immediately after this lakes cutter: Interestingly enough, the latest CPC ensemble composite is showing negative geopotential height anomalies in the Great Lakes/Northeast centered around this period as well: I wouldn't give up on Thursday's potential event, either. At this point I don't see it being anything prolific, but it could be a bit of an appetizer to what *may* be a much bigger deal shaping up for early the following week. At any rate, there is certainly potential on the not-too-distant horizon... This would be a good start to the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow.............Pending storm for mid-week and only crickets around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lots of discussion on NE sub-forum.... This one probably would only affect us in far ENY (unless you buy the 18z NAM) so most of this sub-forum won't care. If it looks like a serious threat to Upstate NY we can start a thread. It's the problem with cutting our greater ALB region in half when they set up these sub-forums. Sometimes our wx can fit in with SYR, ROC, BUF, but I'd wager that 2/3rds of the time it fits in more with western Mass and VT.. Not saying I have a problem with the Upstate/North Country" thread. I just don't like the wall that has been erected separating us from the NE people which results in very little interaction between the two areas and cuts us right in half during the majority of events that tend to affect our ENY/WNE region. Wow.............Pending storm for mid-week and only crickets around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow.............Pending storm for mid-week and only crickets around here I was reading it on the NWS site about an hour ago in the AFD long term. They are right now saying it's more or less a non event, as the QPF amounts are dropping and the temps are bringing us rain. I am VERY hopeful that is wrong, and it's a decent snow event. I am wondering out loud here, but with the temps being warm(er), is it more probable to get an ice storm than snow? Not so much with the next event but overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Models are all over.... Only one model (18Z NAM) suggests a mix threat as far north as GFL. The vast majority are misses out to sea.... so its snow or no....... I was reading it on the NWS site about an hour ago in the AFD long term. They are right now saying it's more or less a non event, as the QPF amounts are dropping and the temps are bringing us rain. I am VERY hopeful that is wrong, and it's a decent snow event. I am wondering out loud here, but with the temps being warm(er), is it more probable to get an ice storm than snow? Not so much with the next event but overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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