NYC metro area winter forecast 2011-2012

[NYsnowlover]

I decided to start this thread because I could not find any other thread that is on this sub-forum that was in relation to this topic, so feel free to post your ideas on what this winter will bring to the NYC metro area!!!

[psv88]

Cold with some snow and some rain, but not that cold, and not that much snow, but a lot of rain...

[TheTrials]

too early for a forecast, although personally speaking I am targeting Turkey Day for the first significant frozen event, but generally speaking, one has to be pumped with the deep troughs and coastal systems showing up now, its better than non-stop SE ridges.

[NYsnowlover]

too early for a forecast, although personally speaking I am targeting Turkey Day for the first significant frozen event, but generally speaking, one has to be pumped with the deep troughs and coastal systems showing up now, its better than non-stop SE ridges.

Yuk, I hate the SÉ ridge.

[TheTrials]

the trough showing up for middle of next week is just insane. Also, check out how close the 0c and 10c line are, we are going to see some serious **** as Doc would say.

[NYsnowlover]

the trough showing up for middle of next week is just insane. Also, check out how close the 0c and 10c line are, we are going to see some serious **** as Doc would say.

Do you think that we will be seeing a high amount of clippers that will re-strengthen when they get close to the coast this year?

Those usually give my area(long island, NY) a decent amount of snow.

[TheTrials]

Do you think that we will be seeing a high amount of clippers that will re-strengthen when they get close to the coast this year?

Those usually give my area(long island, NY) a decent amount of snow.

Isotherm is better suited to handle this, but with nina's generally the northern stream is most active so yes, that would favor miller B, but we have seen STJ come active in Nina's before, like 95-96. NOTE, not forecasting a 95-96 winter by any stretch

[NYsnowlover]

Isotherm is better suited to handle this, but with nina's generally the northern stream is most active so yes, that would favor miller B, but we have seen STJ come active in Nina's before, like 95-96. NOTE, not forecasting a 95-96 winter by any stretch

Wasent 1995-96 our last winter that was active when it came to clippers re-forming as they got close to the coast?

I like clippers because i always get snow from them, and it is dry and fluffy, so I just use my leaf blower to clear the snow off of my car!!

[Isotherm]

Posted this on the main board as well, here's my winter outlook:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/420

[Isotherm]

Isotherm is better suited to handle this, but with nina's generally the northern stream is most active so yes, that would favor miller B, but we have seen STJ come active in Nina's before, like 95-96. NOTE, not forecasting a 95-96 winter by any stretch

Agree thetrials, most of our winter events should originate from the northern stream, i.e Miller B's, secondary development lows, SW flow events, etc.

[SnowGoose69]

I've gone 16.6 inches for total snowfall, have not done the temps yet.

[green tube]

I've gone 16.6 inches for total snowfall, have not done the temps yet.

i love your optimism by not rounding it off to 16.5"

[NYsnowlover]

Posted this on the main board as well, here's my winter outlook:

http://www.lightinth...om/archives/420

Looks like you are expecting a very warm January.

[uncle W]

I've gone 16.6 inches for total snowfall, have not done the temps yet.

I hope that's one storm... ...If we see some strong blocking like the last two years we might see 16" in one storm...Otherwise 16" sounds about right for la nina winters...I think the nina will be half the strength of last years...Blocking will probably not be as strong as the last two years but strong enough to help give us above average snowfall...I think we'll get one very good month that will have below average temperatures and above average snowfall...La Nina winters usually have the coldest part before February...A few started off very mild and February was the coldest month...1972, 1974 and 1986 are a few winters with February being the coldest month...

[Nikolai]

NYC

December: -1, 5-10"

January: -3, 10-20"

February: +2, 0-5"

March: 5"

Total snow: ~30"

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22726-nikolais-winter-2011-12-forecast/page__pid__885324#entry885324

[NJwinter23]

I hope that's one storm... ...If we see some strong blocking like the last two years we might see 16" in one storm...Otherwise 16" sounds about right for la nina winters...I think the nina will be half the strength of last years...Blocking will probably not be as strong as the last two years but strong enough to help give us above average snowfall...I think we'll get one very good month that will have below average temperatures and above average snowfall...La Nina winters usually have the coldest part before February...A few started off very mild and February was the coldest month...1972, 1974 and 1986 are a few winters with February being the coldest month...

Nice summary on things Unc, this is the same general feeling I'm getting surrounding this winter from talking with some long-range ppl and observing around. I feel the winter will probably be in the 23 - 35 inch range for nyc, with good cold shots at times especially Dec. and Jan... HM likes the idea of a cold November and sun activity going on right now to die off a bit towards the beginning of winter, helping to force a -NAO period early on (though not as strong as the last 2 seasons). Also believes the MJO may be a very coherent tool this winter cycling around. A lot of his Stratospheric analogs also show a warming event in mid-winter that could make late Jan and perhaps some of Feb interesting as well..otherwise I get the vibe Feb is likely the least wintry month down this way.

There are a lot of interesting variables in play and analogs being thrown around which have led me to be optomistic that any error could be on the more wintry side rather than vice versa. Just my opinion

[uncle W]

Nice summary on things Unc, this is the same general feeling I'm getting surrounding this winter from talking with some long-range ppl and observing around. I feel the winter will probably be in the 23 - 35 inch range for nyc, with good cold shots at times especially Dec. and Jan... HM likes the idea of a cold November and sun activity going on right now to die off a bit towards the beginning of winter, helping to force a -NAO period early on (though not as strong as the last 2 seasons). Also believes the MJO may be a very coherent tool this winter cycling around. A lot of his Stratospheric analogs also show a warming event in mid-winter that could make late Jan and perhaps some of Feb interesting as well..otherwise I get the vibe Feb is likely the least wintry month down this way.

There are a lot of interesting variables in play and analogs being thrown around which have led me to be optomistic that any error could be on the more wintry side rather than vice versa. Just my opinion

I looked at 31 negative winters and only eleven had the coldest part of winter in February...Of the other 20 (4 in December and 16 in January were the coldest months...only seven out of thirty-one winters did not have a month average 32.0 or lower...

Winters with no month that averaged 32.0 or lower...

1938-39

1950-51

1974-75

1988-89

1998-99

2005-06

2007-08

Cold Dec or Jan...

1892-93

1922-23

1942-43

1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1964-65

1967-68

1970-71

1975-76

1984-85

1995-96

1999-00

2008-09

2010-11

February as the coldest month...

1916-17

1949-50

1961-62

1962-63

1971-72

1973-74

1985-86

1966-67

[NYsnowlover]

I am expecting around 45-50" this winter, I am expecting lots of clippers that will re-generate as they get closer to the ocean.

[TheTrials]

if the blocking looks anything like what is setting up for the second half of this month, we have a lot to be excited about.

[NYsnowlover]

if the blocking looks anything like what is setting up for the second half of this month, we have a lot to be excited about.

How much snow do you think NYC will get?

And that blocking looks VERY impressive.

[TheTrials]

How much snow do you think NYC will get?

And that blocking looks VERY impressive.

I'm in the 40-60 inch range, preliminarily

[WeatherX]

How much snow do you think NYC will get?

And that blocking looks VERY impressive.

It doesn't look impressive at all. What are you seeing, would love to see it. 12z runs today show another positive build up towards the end of the run....

[NYsnowlover]

It doesn't look impressive at all. What are you seeing, would love to see it. 12z runs today show another positive build up towards the end of the run....

It looks impressive to me, and that is because we have not seen much blocking in the past few months.

[CooL]

It looks impressive to me, and that is because we have not seen much blocking in the past few months.

NAO hasnt been consistently negative since July and early August. And at the end of this forecast there is not much agreement if its gonna consistenly stay negative. This is not impressive IMO

[NYsnowlover]

I would rather have it positive up until late November, then it could stay negative for 10 weeks!!!

NAO hasnt been consistently negative since July and early August. And at the end of this forecast there is not much agreement if its gonna consistenly stay negative. This is not impressive IMO

[WeatherX]

It looks impressive to me, and that is because we have not seen much blocking in the past few months.

Yes, the great streak ended in early August. Telecon Indices

Not saying its done, but perhaps a relaxation....

[Isotherm]

Nice summary on things Unc, this is the same general feeling I'm getting surrounding this winter from talking with some long-range ppl and observing around. I feel the winter will probably be in the 23 - 35 inch range for nyc, with good cold shots at times especially Dec. and Jan... HM likes the idea of a cold November and sun activity going on right now to die off a bit towards the beginning of winter, helping to force a -NAO period early on (though not as strong as the last 2 seasons). Also believes the MJO may be a very coherent tool this winter cycling around. A lot of his Stratospheric analogs also show a warming event in mid-winter that could make late Jan and perhaps some of Feb interesting as well..otherwise I get the vibe Feb is likely the least wintry month down this way.

There are a lot of interesting variables in play and analogs being thrown around which have led me to be optomistic that any error could be on the more wintry side rather than vice versa. Just my opinion

Although I disagree on total snowfall (I think 35-45" for NYC), with my research I also found good evidence for the Jan 25th-Feb 15th period being cold/very cold and stormy in the East. I'm definitely not on board the blowtorch feb train w/ my outlook; I believe Jan will be the warmest month wrt normals.

Overall though I see, once again, Dec 1 - Jan 10 period being the most wintry.

[Isotherm]

How much snow do you think NYC will get?

And that blocking looks VERY impressive.

Remember, we'd rather have a +NAO through Oct. I think major blocking will get going around Nov 15th +/- a few days. Last two weeks of Oct cold, first half of Nov mild, then we head into the tank Nov 15 through Dec, if my research ends up correct.

[TheTrials]

Remember, we'd rather have a +NAO through Oct. I think major blocking will get going around Nov 15th +/- a few days. Last two weeks of Oct cold, first half of Nov mild, then we head into the tank Nov 15 through Dec, if my research ends up correct.

the -NAO/+NAO october thing was debunked the last two winters. I think the +PNA in October has a stronger correlation, at least to a winter -NAO.

Speaking of which, those NAO charts are deceiving. Using the 500mb anomology maps from the ensembles are much better. Yesterday the long range ensembles had a pronounced block over the davis straight, its gone today, but that's not saying much, could be there again tomorrow.

This is a smoothed GFS ensemble as 360 from last nights 00Z run, so it will update tonight and be different tomorrow, i.e. time sensitive, that's a strong signal at this range

[Isotherm]

the -NAO/+NAO october thing was debunked the last two winters. I think the +PNA in October has a stronger correlation, at least to a winter -NAO.

Speaking of which, those NAO charts are deceiving. Using the 500mb anomology maps from the ensembles are much better. Yesterday the long range ensembles had a pronounced block over the davis straight, its gone today, but that's not saying much, could be there again tomorrow.

This is a smoothed GFS ensemble as 360 from last nights 00Z run, so it will update tonight and be different tomorrow, i.e. time sensitive, that's a strong signal at this range

It wasn't debunked, it's just that the unprecedentedly low solar forcing as overwhelmed the NAO and made it predominately negative over the past 3 years. Also no correlation is perfect, it's about 0.65-0.7 which means there are plenty of years it doesn't work. I'd rather have a +NAO Oct than not.

As you noted, I do agree that the +PNA October is slightly stronger correlation / more important. But both factors, +PNA/+NAO, add steam to the winter idea of the inverse modality.