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Rocky Mountain Discussion


tacoman25

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Yeah, it's been awfully dry since early fall, really.

Did you get any snow there today? I got a surprise half inch at my house in Westminster.

We got about 1/2" to 3/4" of snow last night into today depending on where you are in town. There wasn't much in the way of orographic enhancement... at least in town. Not sure how the foothills did. It has been really dry... and really the moisture we have received has been tied to two or three hour long rain events, so it's felt even drier than it actually has been.

On the plus side, we now only have about 2 and 1/2" to go to not set that futility record. :)

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Are there any veteran western US forecasters out there that could comment on the 5-7 day forecast for Colorado? I am going to possibly drive over the pass to/from Grand Junction on or before New Year's Eve. I looked at the GFS and ECMWF and both are showing a general trough in the western US, with the potential for mountain blizzards. This is the one day when I don't want to see a blizzard in the forecasts.

Attachment: GFS 150-hour forecast valid 18z December 30. This looks pretty serious. I know things can change greatly out West due to model forecasts of weather in the data-sparse Pacific Ocean.

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So... the BOU AFD is talking about roughly half the models calling for some perhaps significant snow here around about Thursday. Being a transplant, what do others think? 4 inches? A foot? Total wishcast? I have relatives arriving from Alabama and I need snow!!! And, is the EC (Dr. No) the model of choice as it tends to be in the Northeast?

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So... the BOU AFD is talking about roughly half the models calling for some perhaps significant snow here around about Thursday. Being a transplant, what do others think? 4 inches? A foot? Total wishcast? I have relatives arriving from Alabama and I need snow!!! And, is the EC (Dr. No) the model of choice as it tends to be in the Northeast?

I don't know much about the area as I've only lived in Santa Fe since March, but I'm guessing there is going to be a tough call with this system. Its got some really cold air so I could see high snow ratios in my neck of the woods but that might just be wishful thinking.

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Watch is up! ...4-8 inches is better than nothing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO

329 AM MST WED DEC 29 2010

...SEASONS FIRST WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT NORTHEAST COLORADO...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL

BRING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH

CENTRAL COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED

TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BRINGING

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME

TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO UTAH AND

PUSH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THERE ARE MORE

SIGNS THAT THIS STORM WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE

COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH

CENTRAL COLORADO.

COZ038>043-292000-

/O.NEW.KBOU.WS.A.0008.101230T1300Z-101231T1300Z/

LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-

BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD

COUNTY-

NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND

ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-

ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-

NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT COLLINS...HEREFORD...LOVELAND...

NUNN...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...LONGMONT...AURORA...

BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...

FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...BRIGGSDALE...GROVER...PAWNEE BUTTES...

RAYMER...STONEHAM...EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY...ROGGEN

329 AM MST WED DEC 29 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS

THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL

THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NORTH WINDS OF 15

TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF

INTERSTATE 25.

http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch

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Looks like the ensembles had the right idea 10 days ago. :snowman:

4-8" is a significant storm, and certainly far better than anything else we've seen so far. If we get just the right track/speed with this system, I could easily see some places getting 12"+ with this...especially with 20/1 water ratios with the bitterly cold air.

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Bring it on, as long as we can get up and back to the mountains the next two days... bringing the relatives skiing at Loveland tomorrow and Copper on Friday....maybe temps will scare some of the tourists away so the lines will be shorter. Bundle up bigtime, 2 runs, go in and warm up, rinse, repeat. Shovel upon returning home. Only variable is road clearing. :thumbsup:

What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide?

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Bring it on, as long as we can get up and back to the mountains the next two days... bringing the relatives skiing at Loveland tomorrow and Copper on Friday....maybe temps will scare some of the tourists away so the lines will be shorter. Bundle up bigtime, 2 runs, go in and warm up, rinse, repeat. Shovel upon returning home. Only variable is road clearing. :thumbsup:

What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide?

Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. :)

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Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. :)

Winter storm warnings are in effect. It's almost gametime. Hoping for the 10" side of the range to verify here in Boulder. :thumbsup:

You guys have been the screwzone all winter for our region, looks like you finally get a reprieve from that. Still think regions closer to the Palmer Divide will do better in this scenario since it isn't the most moist front, but all areas in the foothills finally get some snow.

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What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide?

Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. :)

Wikipedia's entry for Colorado has a good sat image of a Front Range Oct/Nov '09 snow showing that effect:

http://en.wikipedia....in_Colorado.jpg

Notice how the Palmer Divide, working similar to the Continental Divide, chokes off Colorado Springs from any moisture.

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Wikipedia's entry for Colorado has a good sat image of a Front Range Oct/Nov '09 snow showing that effect:

http://en.wikipedia....in_Colorado.jpg

Notice how the Palmer Divide, working similar to the Continental Divide, chokes off Colorado Springs from any moisture.

The Cheyenne Ridge does some damage too near the border. Honestly though, the complex topography around Boulder/Denver is insane, and the snow totals they get in Denver alone can vary by feet in some of the big storms!

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We ended up with 6-7" in Boulder. While it isn't a huge amount, it keeps us from setting a record in Nov-Dec snow futility.

And the cold temperatures combined with the snow really makes it feel like winter, finally! It's fantastic outside.

Did you know Boulder set a new seasonal snowfall record last winter? I didn't realize that until I checked the records last week.

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Did you know Boulder set a new seasonal snowfall record last winter? I didn't realize that until I checked the records last week.

I heard that before yes. Surprised me. We had the two big storms at the bookends of the season... but I guess we had a lot of 2-4" events at other times. I'm sure the May snowfall helped as well. Sure didn't feel like 130+ inches, but the numbers speak for themselves.

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I heard that before yes. Surprised me. We had the two big storms at the bookends of the season... but I guess we had a lot of 2-4" events at other times. I'm sure the May snowfall helped as well. Sure didn't feel like 130+ inches, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Yeah, 2006-07 definitely "felt" snowier...but that's because the bulk of it fell from Dec-Feb and remained on the ground for a long time. 2009-10 had things much more spread out.

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Yeah, 2006-07 definitely "felt" snowier...but that's because the bulk of it fell from Dec-Feb and remained on the ground for a long time. 2009-10 had things much more spread out.

Next storm to discuss. 120 hour GFS prediction valid 12z Sunday. The GFS does not predict a deep upslope flow for northern Colorado, only a shallow upslope flow with quickly dropping temperatures.

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