tacoman25 Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to underscore the snow drought... the least amount of snow in recorded history in Boulder for Nov-Dec is 5 inches. Currently we have 2. Yeah, it's been awfully dry since early fall, really. Did you get any snow there today? I got a surprise half inch at my house in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, it's been awfully dry since early fall, really. Did you get any snow there today? I got a surprise half inch at my house in Westminster. We got about 1/2" to 3/4" of snow last night into today depending on where you are in town. There wasn't much in the way of orographic enhancement... at least in town. Not sure how the foothills did. It has been really dry... and really the moisture we have received has been tied to two or three hour long rain events, so it's felt even drier than it actually has been. On the plus side, we now only have about 2 and 1/2" to go to not set that futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Things are looking better now for the end of the month/beginning of January. Both GFS and Euro show a much more favorable pattern for snow/cold around days 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Are there any veteran western US forecasters out there that could comment on the 5-7 day forecast for Colorado? I am going to possibly drive over the pass to/from Grand Junction on or before New Year's Eve. I looked at the GFS and ECMWF and both are showing a general trough in the western US, with the potential for mountain blizzards. This is the one day when I don't want to see a blizzard in the forecasts. Attachment: GFS 150-hour forecast valid 18z December 30. This looks pretty serious. I know things can change greatly out West due to model forecasts of weather in the data-sparse Pacific Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 So... the BOU AFD is talking about roughly half the models calling for some perhaps significant snow here around about Thursday. Being a transplant, what do others think? 4 inches? A foot? Total wishcast? I have relatives arriving from Alabama and I need snow!!! And, is the EC (Dr. No) the model of choice as it tends to be in the Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 So... the BOU AFD is talking about roughly half the models calling for some perhaps significant snow here around about Thursday. Being a transplant, what do others think? 4 inches? A foot? Total wishcast? I have relatives arriving from Alabama and I need snow!!! And, is the EC (Dr. No) the model of choice as it tends to be in the Northeast? I don't know much about the area as I've only lived in Santa Fe since March, but I'm guessing there is going to be a tough call with this system. Its got some really cold air so I could see high snow ratios in my neck of the woods but that might just be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Watch is up! ...4-8 inches is better than nothing. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 329 AM MST WED DEC 29 2010 ...SEASONS FIRST WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT NORTHEAST COLORADO... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO UTAH AND PUSH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THERE ARE MORE SIGNS THAT THIS STORM WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. COZ038>043-292000- /O.NEW.KBOU.WS.A.0008.101230T1300Z-101231T1300Z/ LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY- BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET- NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT COLLINS...HEREFORD...LOVELAND... NUNN...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...LONGMONT...AURORA... BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT... FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...BRIGGSDALE...GROVER...PAWNEE BUTTES... RAYMER...STONEHAM...EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY...ROGGEN 329 AM MST WED DEC 29 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Great! So, game on, hopefully. Seems like there are enough local members for a good discussion, though if this were on the East Coast we'd have, like, a post every couple of minutes at this point... experts, are you there? I went to westernusawx and most of the talk there is on PNW weather. ???confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Looks like the ensembles had the right idea 10 days ago. 4-8" is a significant storm, and certainly far better than anything else we've seen so far. If we get just the right track/speed with this system, I could easily see some places getting 12"+ with this...especially with 20/1 water ratios with the bitterly cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Expecting about half a foot as well here in Santa Fe. It just started falling about an hour ago and the moisture train is lined up for a long ways. I'm actuallly suprised the calls are so conservative considering how cold the air is. Low of 0 on New Years does not make this South Texas Transplant happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Bring it on, as long as we can get up and back to the mountains the next two days... bringing the relatives skiing at Loveland tomorrow and Copper on Friday....maybe temps will scare some of the tourists away so the lines will be shorter. Bundle up bigtime, 2 runs, go in and warm up, rinse, repeat. Shovel upon returning home. Only variable is road clearing. What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Bring it on, as long as we can get up and back to the mountains the next two days... bringing the relatives skiing at Loveland tomorrow and Copper on Friday....maybe temps will scare some of the tourists away so the lines will be shorter. Bundle up bigtime, 2 runs, go in and warm up, rinse, repeat. Shovel upon returning home. Only variable is road clearing. What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide? Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Winter storm warnings are in effect. It's almost gametime. Hoping for the 10" side of the range to verify here in Boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. Winter storm warnings are in effect. It's almost gametime. Hoping for the 10" side of the range to verify here in Boulder. You guys have been the screwzone all winter for our region, looks like you finally get a reprieve from that. Still think regions closer to the Palmer Divide will do better in this scenario since it isn't the most moist front, but all areas in the foothills finally get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What's the deal anyway with less snow forecast for the mountains? Is so much moisture squeezed out from the upslope that it never makes it to the Divide? Basically, yes. When we get an upslope storm like this, the foothills usually do best. Also, the best forcing is further east for most of the storm, which is part of the reason the mountains are not expected to get as much this time. They've had more than their share already...can't wait until tomorrow. Wikipedia's entry for Colorado has a good sat image of a Front Range Oct/Nov '09 snow showing that effect: http://en.wikipedia....in_Colorado.jpg Notice how the Palmer Divide, working similar to the Continental Divide, chokes off Colorado Springs from any moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wikipedia's entry for Colorado has a good sat image of a Front Range Oct/Nov '09 snow showing that effect: http://en.wikipedia....in_Colorado.jpg Notice how the Palmer Divide, working similar to the Continental Divide, chokes off Colorado Springs from any moisture. The Cheyenne Ridge does some damage too near the border. Honestly though, the complex topography around Boulder/Denver is insane, and the snow totals they get in Denver alone can vary by feet in some of the big storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 After about 4 hours of just flurries and maybe .5" accumulation, snow has started up in earnest now and have 1" on the ground. Radar really filling in around the metro area. Temp down to 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 We've made out pretty decently here in Boulder. Measuring about 6 inches last I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 About 4" so far in Westminster. Was expecting heavier snow at this time, but looks like there will still be periods of banding tonight...wouldn't be surprised to wake up to 8-9" tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Roughly 3 and a half here in Greenwood Village/Centennial, flurries now. Too tired to measure now after a great day skiing. Will check again in the AM for an almost-final. Radar all chopped up, though it looks like one band out on the plains is decent...??moving NW I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 We ended up with 6-7" in Boulder. While it isn't a huge amount, it keeps us from setting a record in Nov-Dec snow futility. And the cold temperatures combined with the snow really makes it feel like winter, finally! It's fantastic outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 About 4 inches in Santa Fe since yesterday. Still a chance to add an inch or more until the ULL passes us tomorrow. I'm not used to this cold though. Single digits tonight is not my idea of nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Meh... a measly 3.0" here, must have settled. Once more into the snow hole. But we were treated to some mighty cold wind chills and short lift lines today at Copper. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 We ended up with 6-7" in Boulder. While it isn't a huge amount, it keeps us from setting a record in Nov-Dec snow futility. And the cold temperatures combined with the snow really makes it feel like winter, finally! It's fantastic outside. Did you know Boulder set a new seasonal snowfall record last winter? I didn't realize that until I checked the records last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Did you know Boulder set a new seasonal snowfall record last winter? I didn't realize that until I checked the records last week. I heard that before yes. Surprised me. We had the two big storms at the bookends of the season... but I guess we had a lot of 2-4" events at other times. I'm sure the May snowfall helped as well. Sure didn't feel like 130+ inches, but the numbers speak for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I heard that before yes. Surprised me. We had the two big storms at the bookends of the season... but I guess we had a lot of 2-4" events at other times. I'm sure the May snowfall helped as well. Sure didn't feel like 130+ inches, but the numbers speak for themselves. Yeah, 2006-07 definitely "felt" snowier...but that's because the bulk of it fell from Dec-Feb and remained on the ground for a long time. 2009-10 had things much more spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, 2006-07 definitely "felt" snowier...but that's because the bulk of it fell from Dec-Feb and remained on the ground for a long time. 2009-10 had things much more spread out. Next storm to discuss. 120 hour GFS prediction valid 12z Sunday. The GFS does not predict a deep upslope flow for northern Colorado, only a shallow upslope flow with quickly dropping temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not only another good snow threat late this weekend, but it looks like after a brief moderation the next three days, temps will go well below normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am impressed by the strength of the cold temperatures next week shown by the models. Does anybody want to help me pay my electric bill next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am impressed by the strength of the cold temperatures next week shown by the models. Does anybody want to help me pay my electric bill next week? No kidding. I think a lot of places could see their coldest January temps in quite awhile over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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