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Convective potential today 9/29/11


weatherwiz

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Boy--it's so dark, you'd think it was nearly 7:00. Heavy rain, thunder. Nothing too exciting in the thunder department yet.

It really seems that there's been very little east of the CT river (not counting your cell, Bob). Is that the case or have I missed something?

EDIT: Right now, it's raining about as hard as I've ever seen it. Lightning now and nearby thunder.

No thunder here so far.

We had some rain overnight and a few sprinkles during the day

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Line moving into a fairly unstable environment with 1000-1500 J/KG of SBcape, 500 J/KG of MLcape, 500-1000 J/KG of MUcape and LI values of -2C to -3C. Shear is pretty damn strong. Helicity is marginal but enough in place to watch for some rotation with embedded supercells if updrafts can become mature enough.

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Line moving into a fairly unstable environment with 1000-1500 J/KG of SBcape, 500 J/KG of MLcape, 500-1000 J/KG of MUcape and LI values of -2C to -3C. Shear is pretty damn strong. Helicity is marginal but enough in place to watch for some rotation with embedded supercells if updrafts can become mature enough.

The line really seems to becoming more diffuse. Heavy to be sure, but less organized. Not sure if that means anything, but just from appearances.

Once this batch gets through, it looks like things should be pretty much done. Unless of course I'm missing something--which is always a good bet.

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The line really seems to becoming more diffuse. Heavy to be sure, but less organized. Not sure if that means anything, but just from appearances.

Once this batch gets through, it looks like things should be pretty much done. Unless of course I'm missing something--which is always a good bet.

More likely just going to be some embedded stronger cells...the entire line itself probably won't be too intense although the line should be accompanied by a brief period of gusty winds.

Just have to watch for those embedded stronger cells.

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Fitchburg storm certainly has a circulation, not sure yet if it will cause a tornado but strong to damaging

winds are likely with it.

Actually looks like its heading here... Especially if it strengthens and turns right. Could my best SVR be in late Sept?

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Meh. It will be above, but not by that much. I'm guessing a high of 70. Maybe I'll luck out and come in sub-that. Either way, it won't feel too warm since the departure is from a lower starting point, and we haven't been acclimated to truly cool weather yet.

There will be +15 departures in sne tomorrow, if there is enough sun there will be some very warm temperatures. Of course in Gods Country its always below normal.

light rain

squall line was anticlimatic

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