Predict Winter of 2012 Sea Ice Maximum Extent (Millions of Sq Kiliometers)

[The_Global_Warmer]

I figured we can get started on this as the refreeze is about to get going.

I ask that you cast your vote by October 1st for continuity.

This is for the One day Max

[matthewweatherwatcher]

13.1 million km^2

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

13.9-14.0 mil sq kilometers

[Mallow]

14.01-14.25 mil sq km

Closer to 14.01 than 14.25

[PhillipS]

13.5 - 13.75 M km2 is my prediction, but SWAG would be a more accureate term. I think we'll see a slow refreeze due to the warm SSTs.

[skierinvermont]

13.5 - 13.75 M km2 is my prediction, but SWAG would be a more accureate term. I think we'll see a slow refreeze due to the warm SSTs.

Most of the effect is gone by November. The winter following 2007 saw a max of ~14.5 and the winter following 2008 also saw ~14.4. 2008 was fully recovered by early October while 2007 took a little longer. Those are the two lowest extents in history and yet they produced two of the highest recent maxes and were recovered by early to late October.

I don't believe the winter maximum is predictable, unlike the summer minimum. The maximum is affected by too many regions with independent weather and unlike the minimum is not affected by the volume of ice in the high arctic.

I'll go with whatever the 6-yr average is 2006-2011, which appears to be just over 14, same as Mallow.

[Snowstorms]

I'm going for 14.01-14.25 mil sq km for the 2012 maximum.

The maximum like skier said is much harder to forecast than the minimum but it will depend where the blocking sets up this Winter. If its East Based this could effect the Sea Ice across the Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea.

A colder than normal Fall across the Lower altitudes of the Sea Ice regions should allow for a quicker refreeze but we'll see how long it would take for SST's surrounding the Arctic Basin to cool down.

Some climate models develop a -AMO late next Winter and that should be very interesting.

[The_Global_Warmer]

bump....still 11 days left to vote. We already got going then sputtered out again. Something about this thin ice pack that appears to bring a diffeent pattern of refreeeze to the arctic.

[The_Global_Warmer]

bump

[PhillipS]

Now that we've got a month or so left in the refreeze season, does anybody want to refine their predictions?

Looks like I was too low with my WAG of 13.5 - 13.75 M km2.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Probably, but NSIDC is higher than jaxa. I wouldnt be at 14 mil km2 yet.

[PhillipS]

Is it time to announce the final 2012 results - or is there still a possibility of some late freezing?

[LithiaWx]

Is it time to announce the final 2012 results - or is there still a possibility of some late freezing?

It was originally based on JAXA which was tied to AMSR-E which is dead. You can't really say who got it right.

[PhillipS]

It was originally based on JAXA which was tied to AMSR-E which is dead. You can't really say who got it right.

I understand that AMSR-E is history - but there are other sea ice extent sources. Looking at NSIDC it appears that the maximum arctic extent was about 15 M km2 which would make you, Harry, and okie333 the closest predictions. Y'all were certainly closer than I was.

Congrats!

[LithiaWx]

I understand that AMSR-E is history - but there are other sea ice extent sources. Looking at NSIDC it appears that the maximum arctic extent was about 15 M km2 which would make you, Harry, and okie333 the closest predictions. Y'all were certainly closer than I was.

Congrats!

Well thanks! Too bad volume remains so low.....

[skierinvermont]

I understand that AMSR-E is history - but there are other sea ice extent sources. Looking at NSIDC it appears that the maximum arctic extent was about 15 M km2 which would make you, Harry, and okie333 the closest predictions. Y'all were certainly closer than I was.

Congrats!

As Marrietta pointed out Jaxa does not convert to NSIDC which tends to run about .5-.75 million sq km higher than Jaxa in the winter.

This would make the max this year likely around 14.25 or 14.5 if Jaxa was still running. Hard to say who would win.

[PhillipS]

As Marrietta pointed out Jaxa does not convert to NSIDC which tends to run about .5-.75 million sq km higher than Jaxa in the winter.

This would make the max this year likely around 14.25 or 14.5 if Jaxa was still running. Hard to say who would win.

I see your point. Well, my suggestion is that since this was Friv's thread Friv can pick the source for the max sea ice extent.

Friv - care to weigh in on this crucial topic?

[TerryM]

I didn't participate in the poll, but confess my WAG would not have been much lower than reality showed it to be. Can I ask those who did well what they based their estimate on? Why did this year increase its max against the prevailing lowering of the same? Not intended as a trick question, if I'm missing something I'd really like to know what it is.

Thanx

Terry

[LithiaWx]

I didn't participate in the poll, but confess my WAG would not have been much lower than reality showed it to be. Can I ask those who did well what they based their estimate on? Why did this year increase its max against the prevailing lowering of the same? Not intended as a trick question, if I'm missing something I'd really like to know what it is.

Thanx

Terry

You asked a question in good faith so I'll return the favor. My guess was mainly a guess but here is what went into it. The extreme blocking patterns that were present in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 did not show up this year. I had predicted a long way back in September that we would not see a repeat of the extreme blocking that was experienced in those two seasons (at least not in the same areas). I'm not sure if that is what caused the ice to have more extent this year but that was the foundation of my prediction. That's it wouldn't be worse than last year because the extreme weather patterns were going to be missing this go around. But honestly I don't understand winter ice growth/formation well enough to know if that helped or not but it was my theory.

[TerryM]

Thanks

My thoughts were more on the lines of, 'It's drifting in this direction, I don't see why it won't keep drifting, so I'll guess further down that path.'

I'll try to pay more attention to possible one time events (blocking patterns).

[The_Global_Warmer]

I suggest comparing 2006-10 amsre vs ssmi. Jaxa vs nsidc. Use the average difference to find the result.

Jaxa would have more open water with the polyanas compared to nsidc.

[Harry]

I almost forgot about this.. Thanks..

I didn't participate in the poll, but confess my WAG would not have been much lower than reality showed it to be. Can I ask those who did well what they based their estimate on? Why did this year increase its max against the prevailing lowering of the same? Not intended as a trick question, if I'm missing something I'd really like to know what it is.

Thanx

Terry

The short explanation..

My prediction was based on my expectations for the AO ( more +positive vs recent years ) for the most part. Typically a +AO keeps the coldest air up north vs a -AO which sends it south and thus draining the Arctic of the colder air which ofcourse is not good for the ice. It is for this same reason that i think the summer melt will not be nearly as bad as a few are suggesting as well. Thus i strongly believe we gain a bit over last summer etc. And yes that is despite the loss of the my ice. IF we can avoid a mod/strong nino/strong blocking aka very -AO next winter i strongly believe we could see even more gains.

People tend to forget that fresh water freezes quicker then salty and well with all the melting we had in recent years we had a ton of fresh water that was released too. So despite this not being the coldest winter in the north we still had a decent return. Question now is does it all melt again or do we see gains and new my ice? We will have to wait and see.

You asked a question in good faith so I'll return the favor. My guess was mainly a guess but here is what went into it. The extreme blocking patterns that were present in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 did not show up this year. I had predicted a long way back in September that we would not see a repeat of the extreme blocking that was experienced in those two seasons (at least not in the same areas). I'm not sure if that is what caused the ice to have more extent this year but that was the foundation of my prediction. That's it wouldn't be worse than last year because the extreme weather patterns were going to be missing this go around. But honestly I don't understand winter ice growth/formation well enough to know if that helped or not but it was my theory.

See above.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I almost forgot about this.. Thanks..

The short explanation..

My prediction was based on my expectations for the AO ( more +positive vs recent years ) for the most part. Typically a +AO keeps the coldest air up north vs a -AO which sends it south and thus draining the Arctic of the colder air which ofcourse is not good for the ice. It is for this same reason that i think the summer melt will not be nearly as bad as a few are suggesting as well. Thus i strongly believe we gain a bit over last summer etc. And yes that is despite the loss of the my ice. IF we can avoid a mod/strong nino/strong blocking aka very -AO next winter i strongly believe we could see even more gains.

People tend to forget that fresh water freezes quicker then salty and well with all the melting we had in recent years we had a ton of fresh water that was released too. So despite this not being the coldest winter in the north we still had a decent return. Question now is does it all melt again or do we see gains and new my ice? We will have to wait and see.

See above.

Would you care to put some numbers down on this?

Sea Ice volume is at the lowest points it has been. This extent is extrmely decieving. The places that have more ice extent melt out every summer. We can see on visible satelittes that the ice in these regions is thin.

Ice concentration sucks. The Atlantic side is very vulnerable.

I still think we are going to be below 5,000,000km2 because the heat is going to be no differnt than any recent arctic summer.

The snow up north is going to melt out early the oceans wil warm up faster, land will warm up faster, warmer air will hit the weaker ice and the same positive feedback will continue.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ice is garbage here

That is really bad.

This is the Kara

Ice is super thin there as well. that looks nice on extent charts but is in the heart of the arctic.

This ice melts out a month or two a head of the past. Therefore the ice abedo feedback is way positive. The Kara will warm up into the 5c+ range again and that water will help melt the ice in the arctic circle.

[TerryM]

I almost forgot about this.. Thanks..

The short explanation..

My prediction was based on my expectations for the AO ( more +positive vs recent years ) for the most part. Typically a +AO keeps the coldest air up north vs a -AO which sends it south and thus draining the Arctic of the colder air which ofcourse is not good for the ice. It is for this same reason that i think the summer melt will not be nearly as bad as a few are suggesting as well. Thus i strongly believe we gain a bit over last summer etc. And yes that is despite the loss of the my ice. IF we can avoid a mod/strong nino/strong blocking aka very -AO next winter i strongly believe we could see even more gains.

People tend to forget that fresh water freezes quicker then salty and well with all the melting we had in recent years we had a ton of fresh water that was released too. So despite this not being the coldest winter in the north we still had a decent return. Question now is does it all melt again or do we see gains and new my ice? We will have to wait and see.

See above.

Thanks Harry

Confess I hadn't given the fresh/salt content much thought except as it applies to MYI. This year at least the ESAS has by far the freshest water in the Arctic, at least according to the Navy, be interesting to see what happens there.

Terry

[Jonger]

Ice is garbage here

That is really bad.

This is the Kara

Ice is super thin there as well. that looks nice on extent charts but is in the heart of the arctic.

This ice melts out a month or two a head of the past. Therefore the ice abedo feedback is way positive. The Kara will warm up into the 5c+ range again and that water will help melt the ice in the arctic circle.

Can you dig up a satalite image from 10 years ago to compare?

[TerryM]

Can you dig up a satalite image from 10 years ago to compare?

Jong

We have had reasonable discussions regarding Detroit area weather. I know that you know how to access the data that you want. Why are you asking Friv to do this for you? If you have a problem with what he posted, find something to refute it with. Asking him to prove his contention is reasonable, asking him to do your research is not.

Terry

[The_Global_Warmer]

Jong

We have had reasonable discussions regarding Detroit area weather. I know that you know how to access the data that you want. Why are you asking Friv to do this for you? If you have a problem with what he posted, find something to refute it with. Asking him to prove his contention is reasonable, asking him to do your research is not.

Terry

Thanks terry. I was going to dig into the terra and ,aqua database. But I am sick of the snow bunnies hijacking and trolling these threads. if we were in a professional or collegiate setting having these discussions jonger and friends wouldnt be allowed to participate with the way he conducts himself here.

Its never ending. One side has to constantly bring an incredible amount of info the other, well if I call it out will I get banned? Why is there such a prolific double standard? who our what dictates the rules of the board?

If jonger thinks 10 yrs ago the arctic was the same he can bring evidence to refute my assertion.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks terry. I was going to dig into the terra and ,aqua database. But I am sick of the snow bunnies hijacking and trolling these threads. if we were in a professional or collegiate setting having these discussions jonger and friends wouldnt be allowed to participate with the way he conducts himself here.

Its never ending. One side has to constantly bring an incredible amount of info the other, well if I call it out will I get banned? Why is there such a prolific double standard? who our what dictates the rules of the board?

If jonger thinks 10 yrs ago the arctic was the same he can bring evidence to refute my assertion.

Friv, I'm sorry but you really need to get off your high horse here....so many times in the past you posted erroneous or irrelevant information and were simply corrected. Now that you do more and more of your own research on the internet on arctic sea ice, you want people to get banned if they make an erroneous claim? You can correct them with a viable source or you can make annoying posts about how people should be banned for posting irrelevant or erroneous information....if you would like the latter to be carried out here, then you can pack your bags with them since you had been guilty many times in the past.

The CC forum is not heavily moderated as it is not a central priority of Americanwx...we will not tolerate vulger or personal attacks and when they are reported, we take action. There are a few people who have been banned from this forum for that. Otherwise, if you want to debate something, at least stick to the relevant subject matter and stop bringing up your view on the conduct or moderation of this site. You have also repeatedly brought up the arctic sea ice/climate change stuff on the weather side of this site which is something you can receive a legnthy suspension for. Yet we've let it slide by trying to be more tactful and just telling it to stop.

[PhillipS]

Friv, I'm sorry but you really need to get off your high horse here....so many times in the past you posted erroneous or irrelevant information and were simply corrected. Now that you do more and more of your own research on the internet on arctic sea ice, you want people to get banned if they make an erroneous claim? You can correct them with a viable source or you can make annoying posts about how people should be banned for posting irrelevant or erroneous information....if you would like the latter to be carried out here, then you can pack your bags with them since you had been guilty many times in the past.

The CC forum is not heavily moderated as it is not a central priority of Americanwx...we will not tolerate vulger or personal attacks and when they are reported, we take action. There are a few people who have been banned from this forum for that. Otherwise, if you want to debate something, at least stick to the relevant subject matter and stop bringing up your view on the conduct or moderation of this site. You have also repeatedly brought up the arctic sea ice/climate change stuff on the weather side of this site which is something you can receive a legnthy suspension for. Yet we've let it slide by trying to be more tactful and just telling it to stop.

There is a huge gulf between being wrong or misinformed and deliberately trolling a thread - and I"m rather surprised that you would try to conflate the two. Friv has consistently been one of the best posters on the CC forum - he has strong opinions on many topics but he almost always provides solid data to support his assertions. He is respectful and helpful to those honestly seeking information. So he makes occasional mistakes - who on this forum can cast the first stone? We all make mistakes. And when corrected he admits his error and doesn't repost the same thing over and over, muddying up the threads and spreading misinformation..

Isn't that how all posters should behave? And yet, you threaten him with banishment for pointing out the obvious - that there is a double standard in effect. Talk about shooting the messenger.