bluewave Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The -PDO/+AMO pattern that we are experiencing this summer is showing similarities to 1955 across the area. The July PDO recently came in at -1.86 compared to the -2.35 reading for July 1955. http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest July 1955 July 2011 July 1955 had an average temperature at Central Park of 80.9 degrees compared to 80.2 degrees this July. It's interesting that we saw the 100 degree heat around the area on 7/22-7/23/55 along with 7/22-7/23/11. Minus the blocking pattern,July 1955 featured positive 500 mb height anomalies in similar regions over the North Pacific and the Great Lakes as this year. July 1955 July 2011 Several locations across the area this August already have over 10 inches of rain for the month with more to come. I was able to find rainfall amounts that exceeded 16 inches a different locations across the area during August 1955. LGA set its record for the wettest August back in August of 1955 with 16.05 inches for the month.The bulk of the rain that month fell over several days as Connie moved through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 1955 is not a bad analog for this summer...December 1955 was a very cold month...March 56 had a great ending to a not so snowy winter to that point in time...We are in wetter times so I'd expect more snow than 55-56 if we got the same cold temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 1955 is not a bad analog for this summer...December 1955 was a very cold month...March 56 had a great ending to a not so snowy winter to that point in time...We are in wetter times so I'd expect more snow than 55-56 if we got the same cold temperatures... 55-56 is a great analog for this winter...although that La Niña was quite a bit stronger than this one will probably be, we had the same +AMO/-PDO configuration, it followed a moderate Niña in 54-55 as Winter 11-12 will, and we had a cold blocking regime following a warmer than normal summer. We had a cold December in 55-56, which I also expect this year. As you say though, recent trends towards increased winter precipitation make it much more likely that we see a blockbuster, and that Central Park gets more than the 33.5" it received in 55-56. I also think the following winter, 56-57, is a good analog especially when looking at the strength of the ENSO event, which in all probability will be more similar to 56-57 than 55-56. We had a stratospheric warming/-NAO that led to a cold January in 56-57, but the SE ridge was plenty strong with a slew of SW flow events that favored NNE. It was a very snowy winter for the area I will be moving to, the Monadnocks of Southern New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 55-56 is a great analog for this winter...although that La Niña was quite a bit stronger than this one will probably be, we had the same +AMO/-PDO configuration, it followed a moderate Niña in 54-55 as Winter 11-12 will, and we had a cold blocking regime following a warmer than normal summer. We had a cold December in 55-56, which I also expect this year. As you say though, recent trends towards increased winter precipitation make it much more likely that we see a blockbuster, and that Central Park gets more than the 33.5" it received in 55-56. I also think the following winter, 56-57, is a good analog especially when looking at the strength of the ENSO event, which in all probability will be more similar to 56-57 than 55-56. We had a stratospheric warming/-NAO that led to a cold January in 56-57, but the SE ridge was plenty strong with a slew of SW flow events that favored NNE. It was a very snowy winter for the area I will be moving to, the Monadnocks of Southern New Hampshire. 1956-57 had four significant snowfalls...6.3" on 2/1 was the biggest snowstorm...It was zero in Mid January with a five inch snowfall...3" of wet snow fell on 3/1 and 4/5...I remember the 1/15 and 2/1 storms and the 4/5 vaguely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 55-56 is a great analog for this winter...although that La Niña was quite a bit stronger than this one will probably be, we had the same +AMO/-PDO configuration, it followed a moderate Niña in 54-55 as Winter 11-12 will, and we had a cold blocking regime following a warmer than normal summer. We had a cold December in 55-56, which I also expect this year. As you say though, recent trends towards increased winter precipitation make it much more likely that we see a blockbuster, and that Central Park gets more than the 33.5" it received in 55-56. I also think the following winter, 56-57, is a good analog especially when looking at the strength of the ENSO event, which in all probability will be more similar to 56-57 than 55-56. We had a stratospheric warming/-NAO that led to a cold January in 56-57, but the SE ridge was plenty strong with a slew of SW flow events that favored NNE. It was a very snowy winter for the area I will be moving to, the Monadnocks of Southern New Hampshire. 1956-57 is a horrible analog if you are using summer--->winter analogs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 1955 is not a bad analog for this summer...December 1955 was a very cold month...March 56 had a great ending to a not so snowy winter to that point in time...We are in wetter times so I'd expect more snow than 55-56 if we got the same cold temperatures... The funny thing is we used 1955 as an analog for last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 55-56 is a great analog for this winter...although that La Niña was quite a bit stronger than this one will probably be, we had the same +AMO/-PDO configuration, it followed a moderate Niña in 54-55 as Winter 11-12 will, and we had a cold blocking regime following a warmer than normal summer. We had a cold December in 55-56, which I also expect this year. As you say though, recent trends towards increased winter precipitation make it much more likely that we see a blockbuster, and that Central Park gets more than the 33.5" it received in 55-56. I also think the following winter, 56-57, is a good analog especially when looking at the strength of the ENSO event, which in all probability will be more similar to 56-57 than 55-56. We had a stratospheric warming/-NAO that led to a cold January in 56-57, but the SE ridge was plenty strong with a slew of SW flow events that favored NNE. It was a very snowy winter for the area I will be moving to, the Monadnocks of Southern New Hampshire. I know this is an NYC topic but I find it interesting that BDL got 76.3" that winter including the snowiest March on record with 43.3". Unless that was March 1955 it's hard to tell because they don't hyphen the snow seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I know this is an NYC topic but I find it interesting that BDL got 76.3" that winter including the snowiest March on record with 43.3". Unless that was March 1955 it's hard to tell because they don't hyphen the snow seasons. There was a really steep latitude gradient as is common in many Niñas. Parts of Massachusetts had over 100" that winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There was a really steep latitude gradient as is common in many Niñas. Parts of Massachusetts had over 100" that winter... Aren't second year nina's snowier than first year? Not going to say anything like last year is going happen (we had two extremely low chance storms both pan out), but 56-57 was not noteworthy for snowfall. And it shouldn't be like 08-09 either (if we get a blockbuster.) One block buster snowstorm could have us close to equaling that winter. At this early stage of the game, I'm thinking of low 40s for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I know this is an NYC topic but I find it interesting that BDL got 76.3" that winter including the snowiest March on record with 43.3". Unless that was March 1955 it's hard to tell because they don't hyphen the snow seasons. All time seasonal and monthly snowfall records for CT were set during the 1955-56 winter, when 177.4" of snow descended on Norfolk (elev. 1337 ft.) including 73.6" in March alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 All time seasonal and monthly snowfall records for CT were set during the 1955-56 winter, when 177.4" of snow descended on Norfolk (elev. 1337 ft.) including 73.6" in March alone. During that same 1955-56 winter, Babylon, on the S. Shore of Long island, reputedly measured 64.6" of snow...heavily influenced by a blockbuster March....though another board member has warned me to take the Babylon co-op record with a grain of salt as he asserted the observer had a tendency to overreport; given that no other L.I. station reported a snowfall total in the Babylon range that winter, the advice seems sound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 During that same 1955-56 winter, Babylon, on the S. Shore of Long island, reputedly measured 64.6" of snow...heavily influenced by a blockbuster March....though another board member has warned me to take the Babylon co-op record with a grain of salt as he asserted the observer had a tendency to overreport; given that no other L.I. station reported a snowfall total in the Babylon range that winter, the advice seems sound... For example, Patchogue measured 40.9" of snow during the 1955-56 winter and Upton 42.9".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 All time seasonal and monthly snowfall records for CT were set during the 1955-56 winter, when 177.4" of snow descended on Norfolk (elev. 1337 ft.) including 73.6" in March alone. Wow, that is insane William. Thanks for that interesting fact. Norfolk is one heck of a snow spot I can't say I've been there more than once or twice even though it's only 30 miles north of me. I may have to go snow chasing up there at some point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow, that is insane William. Thanks for that interesting fact. Norfolk is one heck of a snow spot I can't say I've been there more than once or twice even though it's only 30 miles north of me. I may have to go snow chasing up there at some point though. From 1951-1973 Norfolk averaged 110" of snow per year; that average has come down a bit in recent years. I used to travel up there when I was younger because I did not believe it could be as snowy as the records indicated...however, when I arrived, snow depth was always *much* more than at Winsted, 7 miles to the ESE (and at least 600 feet lower). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 During that same 1955-56 winter, Babylon, on the S. Shore of Long island, reputedly measured 64.6" of snow...heavily influenced by a blockbuster March....though another board member has warned me to take the Babylon co-op record with a grain of salt as he asserted the observer had a tendency to overreport; given that no other L.I. station reported a snowfall total in the Babylon range that winter, the advice seems sound... Was that big 30" snowstorm measured at Babylon in March 1956 or March 1958, William? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Was that big 30" snowstorm measured at Babylon in March 1956 or March 1958, William? 25.6" @ Babylon...March 18 - 20, 1956. I'm not sure I can find a higher amount for *anyone* with that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Was that big 30" snowstorm measured at Babylon in March 1956 or March 1958, William? The March 1958 storm was also a notable one in the NYC area...but was most severe from north central Maryland into eastern Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The March 1958 storm was also a notable one in the NYC area...but was most severe from north central Maryland into eastern Pennsylvania. The 3/56 event was apparently biggest just inland, IIRC, and brought less precip as one went west. Temp was not really an issue, as even NYC stayed in the low-mid 20s. 3/58 was a near-freezing and longer-duration snowstorm, and much more elevationally affected. My memory has 24" from each at my NNJ home - Dad measured 23.5" on our lawn at 8 AM on 3/19/56 with snow still accumulating, and '58, though not yardsticked, was similar in depth though much wetter. The "3 Reservoirs" (Oak Ridge, Charlotteburg, Canistear) recorded an average of 19" for the 3/56 storm, 25" for the one two yr later. Unc, you noted that you have slight memory of the 4/57 snow; I have none at all, a bit odd because my memories of the 4/56 snowstorm are distinct - it was the "sticky snow", 12" of tree-bending glop. The reservoirs had avg 15" in 4/56, only 6" in 4/57, which probably explains my differing memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 3/56 event was apparently biggest just inland, IIRC, and brought less precip as one went west. Temp was not really an issue, as even NYC stayed in the low-mid 20s. 3/58 was a near-freezing and longer-duration snowstorm, and much more elevationally affected. My memory has 24" from each at my NNJ home - Dad measured 23.5" on our lawn at 8 AM on 3/19/56 with snow still accumulating, and '58, though not yardsticked, was similar in depth though much wetter. The "3 Reservoirs" (Oak Ridge, Charlotteburg, Canistear) recorded an average of 19" for the 3/56 storm, 25" for the one two yr later. Unc, you noted that you have slight memory of the 4/57 snow; I have none at all, a bit odd because my memories of the 4/56 snowstorm are distinct - it was the "sticky snow", 12" of tree-bending glop. The reservoirs had avg 15" in 4/56, only 6" in 4/57, which probably explains my differing memories. I was in the first grade in 56 and 2nd grade in 57...I remember seeing the snow fall from my classroom window...The 56 storm was rain that changed to wet snow early am and ended in the morning...The 57 storm was during the day and I believe it mixed and changed to rain...I remember walking in the slush after school...I was only seven at the time so my memory is vague... I'm almost sure it was April 57... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 From 1951-1973 Norfolk averaged 110" of snow per year; that average has come down a bit in recent years. I used to travel up there when I was younger because I did not believe it could be as snowy as the records indicated...however, when I arrived, snow depth was always *much* more than at Winsted, 7 miles to the ESE (and at least 600 feet lower). Did you have relatives that lived up in Winsted? Winsted a pretty good town for snow but relative to Norfolk I guess it doesn't compare. I actually never realized how far east Norfolk was until I looked on Google maps the other day. I always kind of thought it was closer to Canaan because I associate the NW corner with the highest elevations in the state. What do you attribute the decreased average to? More Miller A coastals that don't bring the heaviest axis of snow that far northwest or maybe a +PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Did you have relatives that lived up in Winsted? No...it was just the last town on Route 8 before you turned WNW on Route 44. Winsted a pretty good town for snow but relative to Norfolk I guess it doesn't compare. I actually never realized how far east Norfolk was until I looked on Google maps the other day. I always kind of thought it was closer to Canaan because I associate the NW corner with the highest elevations in the state. What do you attribute the decreased average to? More Miller A coastals that don't bring the heaviest axis of snow that far northwest or maybe a +PDO? The extreme NW corner of CT is the highest point in the state / Bear Mt. The average came down because 1973 - 1999 was bad for almost *everyone*. 2000-2011 has been exceptional along the coast, not quite as great in the mid Hudson Valley, W MA, or NW CT...I think Norfolk is averaging less than 100" annually the last 11 years...will doublecheck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 No...it was just the last town on Route 8 before you turned WNW on Route 44. The extreme NW corner of CT is the highest point in the state / Bear Mt. The average came down because 1973 - 1999 was bad for almost *everyone*. 2000-2011 has been exceptional along the coast, not quite as great in the mid Hudson Valley, W MA, or NW CT...I think Norfolk is averaging less than 100" annually the last 11 years...will doublecheck. Where do you get your climo records from there? Yeah, the 2000's were up and down for me since I'm sort of between the coast and the true NW hills. 09-10 was not good but 02-03, 04-05, and 05-06 I did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I haven't seen it mentioned here, though I only glanced through the posts... 1955 was epic because of two hurricanes, Connie and Diane. This month there have been epic rains without any tropical systems... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I haven't seen it mentioned here, though I only glanced through the posts... 1955 was epic because of two hurricanes, Connie and Diane. This month there have been epic rains without any tropical systems... yet. Are you coming east for this storm, Ray? Or are you still here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Are you coming east for this storm, Ray? Or are you still here? Nope, I left on Monday. Just in time to miss the earthquake. Figures I don't think I'd chase a hurricane either... snow is fun, hurricanes kill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 KNYC rainfall... TOTAL FOR MONTH: 18.95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 KNYC rainfall... TOTAL FOR MONTH: 18.95 EWR: 18.79" but still tempwise +1.7 for the month. TTN: 14.85 +1.8 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 EWR: 18.79" but still tempwise +1.7 for the month. TTN: 14.85 +1.8 for the month The TTN number is erroneously low due to some rain gauge issues early in the month. 15.69 is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 KNYC rainfall... TOTAL FOR MONTH: 18.95 So close to 20" I have high hopes NYC will break 20" monthly total within the next 10 years (and 70" annual.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 So close to 20" I have high hopes NYC will break 20" monthly total within the next 10 years (and 70" annual.....) the annual record is 80" set in 1983...67" in 1972 is second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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