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Potential December 12th-13th threat

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Foothills...I was curious on what your thoughts were about our chances for some winter weather towards the end of the month. Do you see the possibility of something "brewing" down the pike?

its possible with suge historic anamolies going on. Sky's the limit, from torch to freeze LOL. REally can't get specific now.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

its possible with suge historic anamolies going on. Sky's the limit, from torch to freeze LOL. REally can't get specific now.

Going out on a limb here...

16th and 17th ---> potential ZR event, currently progged to be low impact for most of the SE as the system passes just to the north

21st and 22nd ---> potential overrunning event via a southern slider, possibly a GA special

25th ---> Our Christmas Miracle

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Foothills, HKY...have you seen the sounding for KMRN from tonight's 0z GFS?

Looks quite interesting if you ask me. BTW, going to the MeteoStar, it prints out nearly .50 QPF now for the storm with .31 coming at this specific time.

http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

For those wanting a good read on the storm developing in the central plains atm, I suggest this thread in the central and western us sub-forum...

Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

Lots of great info, on what will likely be a historic event for portions of MN and WI. National mosaic just beginning to light up and will look nothing like this come morning.

post-382-0-57709800-1292046239.png

Kind of p-o'd I am not in south-east MN atm, thought about chasing this to Boone, but the HPC only has a low hatch for 8", and normally would like to see a high prob for 8" or mod prob for 12" before pulling the trigger. Also, to much bust potential in western NC to make this one a safe bet.

day2_psnow_gt_08.gif

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Watching what may be a brief ice event here in the coastal plain of NC come morning, currently sitting at 27/27 at PGV on a calm wind, while ILM is at 37/32 on a NE wind at 3. This is the SE mosaic valid at 0618z, and compare to the 0z NAM sim valid 6z, and then 12z, note the timing, underdone on this model...

post-382-0-19126500-1292048709.png

post-382-0-69436400-1292048718.png

post-382-0-36569400-1292048729.png

Likely a long shot, but if any of those returns can make it up here before 8am, it could be frozen once it hits the surface.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

1223 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES WIND FIELDS BELOW 700 MB WILL BACK

FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN

THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME BELOW 600 MB...AND RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO

DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL

DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL STUBBORNLY LINGER...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER

THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES. DEWPOINTS AROUND 20 INLAND WILL HAVE TO

RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE

GROUND. BEFORE 6 AM IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG

THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES EXTENDING NORTH AND

WEST. WE CAREFULLY EXAMINED THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ICE AT THE

ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION INLAND WHERE WET BULB TEMPERATURES COULD

BE NEAR FREEZING. THERE SHOULD BE A VERY DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR IN

PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE...APPROXIMATELY 8000 FT THICK...TOO THICK TO

ALLOW SLEET TO FORM. THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING

RAIN AT THE ONSET IS THERE BUT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN OUR

FORECASTS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS THE

PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

bufkit actually gives charlotte .2" of snow on Sunday with ratios of 22:1.

This looks like a winter 2010-11 that will be challenging for a lot of Mets! I do not know all the "lingo" that goes with the weather, but it seems like things keep changing by the minute. It seems that it will be more of a "game time" decision this weekend and next week with what happens. Hoping we can squeeze out a few flakes in the coming days. Would be nice to see a little bit fall, with the Christmas lights and all.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

A couple of things I find interesting on the radar this morning (I'm easily amused rolleyes.gif) http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_deep_south_master.php

Give it a second to load and click on the recommended settings. One area is down near Savannah. It's that little thin line of precip and you might notice higher level echos moving a different direction over the line. I'm assuming that line is some boundary between the moist Atlanta air and the dryer colder air.

The other area is the large batch of thunderstorms over west Tennessee. In looking at the sim radar up above this post, it appears this batch is further south than progged. I don't know if this means that the low is possibly further south than forecasted or not... but I hope so!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

06z NAM run came in colder for western NC. Right now Asheville's wetbulb is 27, Boone's is 24. I know they're going to rise today, but theres always been shown a cold pocket aloft , as well as surface, remaining there. Still think the prefrontal precip somewhere in there will be mostly snow, several quick inches.

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neatlburbwthrguy

neatlburbwthrguy

Posted
Posted

06z NAM run came in colder for western NC. Right now Asheville's wetbulb is 27, Boone's is 24. I know they're going to rise today, but theres always been shown a cold pocket aloft , as well as surface, remaining there. Still think the prefrontal precip somewhere in there will be mostly snow, several quick inches.

i dont have access to the 06z nam maps. if you dont mind me asking, how did they look for areas of north georgia in regards to seeing some snowfall?

thanks foothills in advance.

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

06z NAM run came in colder for western NC. Right now Asheville's wetbulb is 27, Boone's is 24. I know they're going to rise today, but theres always been shown a cold pocket aloft , as well as surface, remaining there. Still think the prefrontal precip somewhere in there will be mostly snow, several quick inches.

Fwiw have you seen the gfs snowfall map. It really drops a lot of snow on western NC.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

i dont have access to the 06z nam maps. if you dont mind me asking, how did they look for areas of north georgia in regards to seeing some snowfall?

thanks foothills in advance.

wrap around snowshowers are a good bet, even down to ATL. but probably not much accumulation but there is a chance at an inch I think in the n. Ga mtns. Otherwise, after the front midday Sunday, snowshowers break out over northern Ga and n. Alabama, eventually tapering to just the northern counties.

Fwiw have you seen the gfs snowfall map. It really drops a lot of snow on western NC.

I never give much creedence to the GFS snow map. I feel safer just guessing on my own based on what I think rates and duration will be. They're fun to look at though.

You are right Robert. The 850 temps stay at or below 0 for all of the event in the NC mtns. Tenn mtns too. Are you gonna put out a map today?

I may do that, but it would be vague. Its hard to make a totals map over those mountain counties.

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neatlburbwthrguy

neatlburbwthrguy

Posted
Posted

wrap around snowshowers are a good bet, even down to ATL. but probably not much accumulation but there is a chance at an inch I think in the n. Ga mtns. Otherwise, after the front midday Sunday, snowshowers break out over northern Ga and n. Alabama, eventually tapering to just the northern counties.

thanks foothills. im in the northern burbs of atl. i agree with your educated guess for north georgia. hoping for at least a dusting in mby...

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Buddy

Buddy

Posted
Posted

Fwiw have you seen the gfs snowfall map. It really drops a lot of snow on western NC.

Czar, I'm starting to really think we might have our first real go this season. Seems to be trending colder this morning, Temps on monday are progged several degress colder than they were last night (Not that monday had a temp problem ever anyway) and both GFS & NAM are constistantly showing a significant, albeit quick, burst of moisture behind the 0C line. Usually not very hopeful about these sorts of events, but there is a secondary low over northern TX so who knows how it pans out.

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Buddy

Buddy

Posted
Posted

I may do that, but it would be vague. Its hard to make a totals map over those mountain counties.

Hah, no doubt. With these sorts of pseudo-upslope/wraparound events, its basically a tossup as to how it will roll. Usually we blank these things in WNC, but it looks like the moisture will maybe sneak in more from the west instead of the north and if that's the case we do stand a significant chance of some quick, and maybe even intense, snow setting up.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Hah, no doubt. With these sorts of pseudo-upslope/wraparound events, its basically a tossup as to how it will roll. Usually we blank these things in WNC, but it looks like the moisture will maybe sneak in more from the west instead of the north and if that's the case we do stand a significant chance of some quick, and maybe even intense, snow setting up.

I was thinking of one before the upslope starts. Somewhere in the mountains, maybe most of them in w. NC, will get snow ahead of the cold front, as well as behind. I'm waiting to see the 12z

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Buddy

Buddy

Posted
Posted

I was thinking of one before the upslope starts. Somewhere in the mountains, maybe most of them in w. NC, will get snow ahead of the cold front, as well as behind. I'm waiting to see the 12z

Yea I guess what I was getting at, usually when the moisture is coming from the north, and we don't have cold in place, we're hard put to get much in the way of wintery precip. It's usually cold rain, switching over to flurries after the fact. We usually have to have cold in place with moisture creeping up from the gulf for any significant accums. This one looks potentially a bit different than the normal event though, with the moisture coming a bit from the west, and there also being a secondary Low south of the cold encroachment. I'm with you, the 12z will tell the final tail, then we see where the chips fall, I hope for Snowman.gif of course!

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neatlburbwthrguy

neatlburbwthrguy

Posted
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Yea I guess what I was getting at, usually when the moisture is coming from the north, and we don't have cold in place, we're hard put to get much in the way of wintery precip. It's usually cold rain, switching over to flurries after the fact. We usually have to have cold in place with moisture creeping up from the gulf for any significant accums. This one looks potentially a bit different than the normal event though, with the moisture coming a bit from the west, and there also being a secondary Low south of the cold encroachment. I'm with you, the 12z will tell the final tail, then we see where the chips fall, I hope for Snowman.gif of course!

sorry but when does the 12z come out? thank you in advance. =)

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