HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Here's the BZE radar, if anyone wants to follow along as the cyclone comes ashore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 OK, I believe it's strengthening at this hour. The IR presentation is improving noticeably with each 30-min interval. Look at that nice, round, centralized ball of convection. This is a sweet cyclone taking shape. If it continues to make modest latitude gains, this'll come ashore tomorrow as a solid Cat-1 cutiecane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just awesome-looking. Never thought this system would pull together so nicely. Ever since the initial, glamorous splash it made when exiting Africa, it's looked frail and sickly its entire lifetime. Now-- what a change: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 And a further shot-- for some perspective. Definitely a cutiecane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow! I was totally surprised when I saw the latest pic, it was looking much worse earlier tonight. Looks gorgeous. When is recon getting back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Kind of a blah 4 am CDT package. The intensity is kept at 994 mb/50 kt, and there's been no increase to the intensity forecast. In fact, the new forecast doesn't even show a hurricane, because they believe it would reach hurricane intensity only briefly between the 12- and 24-hr forecast points. They just seem rather bearish, given the recent appearance-- but, hey, they know better than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wouldn't surprise me if it was a hurricane now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wouldn't surprise me if it was a hurricane now. Given the IR presentation, it wouldn't surprise me, either. I guess they don't want to make any big moves until recon gets there at 12Z. I just thought they'd bump it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Watching the loop is just beautiful. Goes from looking like complete crap to a perfect circle in just a few frames. I think this finally signifies the light has just been switched on for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Watching the loop is just beautiful. Goes from looking like complete crap to a perfect circle in just a few frames. I think this finally signifies the light has just been switched on for the season. I agree-- it's the first real cyclone we've had in the NATL. Even the latest frame seems to suggest an eyewall of very cold cloud tops. (The center is right where it appears to be-- over that long island, Roatan.) I'm surprised the NHC was so unimpressed by tonight's progress. I suppose the next advisory might reflect some of these structural improvements: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I agree-- it's the first real cyclone we've had in the NATL. Even the latest frame seems to suggest an eyewall of very cold cloud tops. (The center is right where it appears to be-- over that long island, Roatan.) I'm surprised the NHC was so unimpressed by tonight's progress. I suppose the next advisory might reflect some of these structural improvements: Small system fast spin-up...they are being conservative in case the system craps out in the next 3-6 hours. I really don't blame them given how small Harvey's circulation is. With that said, it's in a good spot to develop quickly so I'm not surprised with the intensification trend overnight. If it holds serve to 8 AM I wouldn't be surprised with a bump to 65/70 before the hurricane hunters get in there unless there's an ob or something that stands out and forces an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Small system fast spin-up...they are being conservative in case the system craps out in the next 3-6 hours. I really don't blame them given how small Harvey's circulation is. With that said, it's in a good spot to develop quickly so I'm not surprised with the intensification trend overnight. If it holds serve to 8 AM I wouldn't be surprised with a bump to 65/70 before the hurricane hunters get in there unless there's an ob or something that stands out and forces an upgrade. 65/70 mph, you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Latest radar from BZE. You can see the inner core trying to pull together. The cyclone will come ashore a little N of Monkey River Town-- where Cat-4 Iris 2001 made landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 65/70 mph, you mean? Si. (They may wait until recon gets in to upgrade unless there's some sort of "clear" signal of it being a 'cane but I think they'd nudge the wind up a notch or two at 8 if sat continue to look good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow. What an amazing turnaround for this thing. I think its a hurricane or will be by the time recon gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Roatan recently reported a low pressure of 1005.1 mb, with a max wind of 24 kt gusting to 35 kt. The pressure is rising and the wind has shifted a tad, so I believe the center has already passed the point of closest approach. Given that Roatan was located quite near the center, I'm not exactly impressed by these data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's looking more and more symmetric on the IR imagery, with an expanding CDO. It's certainly intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is certainly more than a 50kt tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 MHRO 201000Z 24024G35KT 0500 +SHRA FEW010 SCT018CB OVC070 24/23 Q1005 A2970 NOSIG It's looking more and more symmetric on the IR imagery, with an expanding CDO. It's certainly intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 recon is about to arrive in the core... so we should know more about the intensity rather shortly. That said, the Belize radar is showing to show hints of a formative eyewall, although it still seems to be mainly a spiral pattern. It has about 3-6 hours before landfall given the current motion, so well see if this latest convective burst will give it enough mojo to get to hurricane intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Center fix wasn't particularly impressive, extrap was above 1000mb, 47kt at flight level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 still at 60 mph (50 kt) at 8 AM ET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Center fix wasn't particularly impressive, extrap was above 1000mb, 47kt at flight level Yep a pretty unimpressive pass, but maybe the system is still reorganizing after it lost it's convection from last night. Either way it seems like hurricane intensity is looking a little less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 still at 60 at 8 AM ET Yeah, I guess they want to see what recon shows. Makes sense. P.S. You should indicate units when discussing wind, as many of us use kt. (I haven't used mph in a loooooooong time. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yeah, I guess they want to see what recon shows. Makes sense. P.S. You should indicate units when discussing wind, as many if us use kt. (I haven't used mph in a loooooooong time. ) I haven't posted in the trop threads much of late...would explain why you asked mph or kt earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yep a pretty unimpressive pass, but maybe the system is still reorganizing after it lost it's convection from last night. Either way it seems like hurricane intensity is looking a little less likely now. It's had solid convection for many hours now-- perhaps 6-- so that's hardly a reasonable excuse at this point. The latest recon data are kind of blah-- and I was surprised the pressure on Roatan didn't get lower than 1005 mb-- but keep in mind the core is very small, as per radar, and it could be they missed the highest winds on this pass. Let's see. Either way, I wouldn't write it off yet-- it continues to slowly gain latitude and has at least 6 hr more over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just based on the radar trends, Harvey is having some difficulty establishing a full eyewall, the last couple of frames show the structure eroding a bit actually. The wind core that recon found though was very tight so there is reason to believe that if it wraps up again we could still see a significant increase in strength. Time is running out though. btw dropsonde found the surface pressure at 999mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's had solid convection for many hours now-- perhaps 6-- so that's hardly a reasonable excuse at this point. The latest recon data are kind of blah-- and I was surprised the pressure on Roatan didn't get lower than 1005 mb-- but keep in mind the core is very small, as per radar, and it could be they missed the highest winds on this pass. Let's see. Either way, I wouldn't write it off yet-- it continues to slowly gain latitude and has at least 6 hr more over water. My theory is that the intensity we saw last night was influenced pretty strongly by the convective burst that wrapped around the center, which caused the sharp drop in pressure (similar to what happened with Don briefly 24 hours before landfall). Given that the pressure was really high over Roatan, its reasonable to expect that the pressure came up pretty quickly after the recon passes last night when the convection weakened, and we are only seeing the system start to recover now in the hours leading up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 most recent microwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Landfall will be around Dangriga in a couple of hours... it won't make it to a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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