CooL Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If this were to somehow miraculously play out as depicted, do you realize it will be snowing over much of the area for over 100 hrs?!!! the storm closes off and stalls, just snowing itself out. Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If this were to somehow miraculously play out as depicted, do you realize it will be snowing over much of the area for over 100 hrs?!!! thats why i said this thing would give 93 a run for its money That and the 968 low sitting to the south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If this were to somehow miraculously play out as depicted, do you realize it will be snowing over much of the area for over 100 hrs?!!! Norlun feature drops 4-8 over the preceding 36 hrs then big momma comes and drops 12-24 over the next 60 hours...pretty epic if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Good Lord.. Look whats hot on its heels!!! I cant see that cutting the way its depicted with a powerful west based neg NAO in force... This should be a fun ride if its not totally out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Before anyone starts making comparisons to how the models behaved with the storms for the 5th and 8-9th time period, the last time the GFS had a big storm for us for either of those dates was in its 10 day fantasy range. I believe it did show a storm on occasion but not one that affected us (someone correct me if I'm wrong). The storm modeled on the 18z GFS starts taking shape at hr 174-180 and by 192 the trough is starting to go negative. Thats in the 8-9 day range so I would definitely keep a close eye on this threat also because of the fact that the EURO shows something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If this were to somehow miraculously play out as depicted, do you realize it will be snowing over much of the area for over 100 hrs?!!! Talk about epic. I'd settle for a 1/10th of that to actually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 after 7 months of no model threads and this forum being dead i need to get it out of my system. This time of yr only comes around once. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Talk about epic. I'd settle for a 1/10th of that to actually verify. I wouldn't. After last year, anything under 24" is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Wishcast attached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Wishcast attached Ill see you, and raise you a foot! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It must have a beautiful baroclinic leaf..... to go with rapid cyclogenesis along with intense vorticity advection, thermal advection and of course, baroclinicity bewteen the gradients of high pressure to the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Actually looks a bit like February 18-20th 1972... Central PA got absolutely slammed with that one.... Anyway, I like the trends and we got plenty of time to get this going right. Bring it 60 miles East, we'll talking February '10 numbers. So this is JB's version of Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 18z DGEX for the little that it is worth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well it's something nice to see, so what if the track isn't perfect, it's 8 days out, big deal. I wonder if this is just a fluke run or will the 0z gfs follow. Also if you believe the 18z gfs, we could see 1-3 inches of snow between hours 156 to 180. The track is interesting and a little worrying, the storm would take place during the transition to a redeveloping block, the 50/50 low is a bit out of place. You'd like a storm is occur as the block is firmly in place, not while it's in the process of repositioning itself. By hour 228, the block is firmly in place, the low closes off and a good chunk of I-95 would get 3-6 inches of snow after a sloppy rain/snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Norlun trough FTW Jackpot KHPN http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Interesting how many of the members blow up the initial wave. This could be a development that we've been ignoring because we're all salivating at the storm following the initial snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Guidance remains consistent with potential begining next weekend into the week of the 13th (12/9 - 12/16) with cold sustained cold throughout the period. The peak of the cold is likely to be between the 8th and the 12th with storm threats coinciding in this time frame. Beyond mid month longer range seems to be leaning towards a continuation of an overall colder than normal with a trough in the east. Its good to see guidance persistent with the storm threat next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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