CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I'm sure Wiz has the stats jotted down on the back of a McDonalds napkin. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 In Ekster's EML paper he goes into great detail about synoptic setups which favor EML advection into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I'm sure Wiz has the stats jotted down on the back of a McDonalds napkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 In Ekster's EML paper he goes into great detail about synoptic setups which favor EML advection into our region. Yeah the setups are mentioned. I was just thinking about it from a different view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah the setups are mentioned. I was just thinking about it from a different view. I also believe there is some sort of correlation between the EPO and eastward progression of EML's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I also believe there is some sort of correlation between the EPO and eastward progression of EML's. It's not like the results would be earth shattering by any means...just more from a curiosity standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It's not like the results would be earth shattering by any means...just more from a curiosity standpoint. Yup...I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It's not like the results would be earth shattering by any means...just more from a curiosity standpoint. I think that would actually be a good avenue to take to expand upon the climo in the paper. Break down the teleconnections and see if and how they may correlate to eml advection to the northeast. A well done climo like that could aid in prediction. The thought has crossed my mind a few times, but never had time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 I think that would actually be a good avenue to take to expand upon the climo in the paper. Break down the teleconnections and see if and how they may correlate to eml advection to the northeast. A well done climo like that could aid in prediction. The thought has crossed my mind a few times, but never had time to do it. Yeah, agreed. That would be interesting. Have you looked at warm season EML events that did not produce. We all recall the events that produced widespread sig svr with an EML present but how about the times we've had an EML/remnant EML plume where we've either been totally capped or the event has underperformed. Might be interesting to see if there are any synoptic similarities for those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah, agreed. That would be interesting. Have you looked at warm season EML events that did not produce. We all recall the events that produced widespread sig svr with an EML present but how about the times we've had an EML/remnant EML plume where we've either been totally capped or the event has underperformed. Might be interesting to see if there are any synoptic similarities for those events. Yeah, null events have been considered and is also a good avenue for future work. Would have to write some sort of script or program to find those days since nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah, null events have been considered and is also a good avenue for future work. Would have to write some sort of script or program to find those days since nothing happened. Just give Wiz a 40 or 2 and have him go through 30+ years of soundings manually. Easier (for you) than writing a script. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 That is pretty crazy. I can definitely see the spike on some of the radar images above, and those kinds of things are rare enough for hail events, let alone debris. Can't wait to read up on it. Yeah there was a scan or two around 2104z where there was a weak hail spike concurrent with a well-defined "debris spike" (see attached image) down-radial of the debris ball (or TDS). To my knowledge, this is the first time this has ever been documented. A boatload of wet branches and leaves is likely the culprit. However, there have been other strong/violent tornadoes with a TDS on radar going through a forested area where there was no spike at all. So, I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I actually have plans to start breaking down some teleconnections for the periods surrounding major events here including eml's. I've looked into this a little bit before and there weren't really any conclusive results but like I said it wasn't in great detail. What you can conclude I suppose is it doesn't take any one pattern to produce but that is nothing we didn't know lol. I've also started working on something with a friend where I. Had him go to the spc storm events page where he would write down all the dates we had a risk outlook here but his computer croaked so he lost what he had done. I also think its extremely important to study the setups that didn't pan out just as much as that did...this way you can ask youself why did this one do this and this one not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Here is a cross section at 2104z...the debris spike is very evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Can you make that bigger for me? I'm on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Here is a cross section at 2104z...the debris spike is very evident. Yeah both spikes there. That's phenomenal. I wonder what about this event was able to produce the TBSS from debris? This debris ball was also phenomenally well defined... as textbook as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Here is a cross section at 2104z...the debris spike is very evident. How high up in the updraft is that debris getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah both spikes there. That's phenomenal. I wonder what about this event was able to produce the TBSS from debris? This debris ball was also phenomenally well defined... as textbook as you can get. My guess is the way the storm was oriented with respect to motion. A good portion of the front flank of the storm preceeded the tornado...allowing for everything to get sopping wet a few min before the tornado struck. Wet debris would be more reflective that dry debris...especially in the case of branches and leaves...and just resulted in Mie scattering a lot like large haistones. My guess that's not the whole story, but it's the best explanation I have at this point. Maybe the type of forest is also important here. Dunno. How high up in the updraft is that debris getting? On some other cuts I made earlier in the year I saw a solid debris signature up to between 8-10 kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 My guess is the way the storm was oriented with respect to motion. A good portion of the front flank of the storm preceeded the tornado...allowing for everything to get sopping wet a few min before the tornado struck. Wet debris would be more reflective that dry debris...especially in the case of branches and leaves...and just resulted in Mie scattering a lot like large haistones. My guess that's not the whole story, but it's the best explanation I have at this point. Maybe the type of forest is also important here. Dunno. On some other cuts I made earlier in the year I saw a solid debris signature up to between 8-10 kft. Fascinating stuff. Looks like in that cross section you posted debris to 5 or 6kft and then rain/hail in the tilted updraft above that and finally into the front flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Fascinating stuff. Looks like in that cross section you posted debris to 5 or 6kft and then rain/hail in the tilted updraft above that and finally into the front flank. Here's a 3D display of the back end of the storm I came up with in GR2...the 60dbz isosurface goes up to around 10 kft...maybe 11 kft or so. Small debris probably extends up that high while the larger debris with 65 dbz returns remains lower. Wild stuff. Not sure what I'd do without GRlevel2 nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Pete Banacos from BTV, myself, radarman, and JoeD are just wrapping up a paper on this event. One of the things done was to put this tornado outbreak into a bit of context and rank the top 20 tornado-producing days (since 1950) in New England and easternmost NY by destruction potential index (DPI). This way we have a more objective way to see where this event falls. Quite predictably, 1 Jun 2011 ranks #2 behind the 1953 worcester outbreak. Here is a peek at the top 20. Hard to believe the July 10 1989 outbreak doesn't make the list. The New Haven F4 had a very small path length, but there were plenty of other damaging tornadoes from that day, including another F4 with a 42 mile path according to the wikipedia article. This was the day that first got me interested in severe weather, and there's not much question that it was a massive outbreak for the Northeast, I would have thought it would make the list. Don't want to derail the thread, though, those are some very pretty images. Hard to believe I just sat there on June 1 watching the Springfield cell on radar, but the situation went so fast from a whole bunch of storms that looked like they might congeal into a big mess, and then instead all of a sudden you had a couple of dominant tornado producing supercells... If I'd been just a little more willing to commit to a target I would have been there, but it's so easy to be pessimistic regarding chase prospects in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Hard to believe the July 10 1989 outbreak doesn't make the list. The New Haven F4 had a very small path length, but there were plenty of other damaging tornadoes from that day, including another F4 with a 42 mile path according to the wikipedia article. This was the day that first got me interested in severe weather, and there's not much question that it was a massive outbreak for the Northeast, I would have thought it would make the list. Don't want to derail the thread, though, those are some very pretty images. Hard to believe I just sat there on June 1 watching the Springfield cell on radar, but the situation went so fast from a whole bunch of storms that looked like they might congeal into a big mess, and then instead all of a sudden you had a couple of dominant tornado producing supercells... If I'd been just a little more willing to commit to a target I would have been there, but it's so easy to be pessimistic regarding chase prospects in New England. Welcome to the board. Yeah I totally didn't realize 7/10/89 wasn't on there.... Ekster can shed some light O'm sure. It was mentioned in his initial paper with pete banacos about EML events. Hope to see you post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Here's a 3D display of the back end of the storm I came up with in GR2...the 60dbz isosurface goes up to around 10 kft...maybe 11 kft or so. Small debris probably extends up that high while the larger debris with 65 dbz returns remains lower. Wild stuff. Not sure what I'd do without GRlevel2 nowadays. Incredible X... thanks for posting that. It's amazing how easy it is to visualize these things with such ease with GR2. I plan on upgrading to GR2A once I get a pc at home (have a macbook and a work laptop... but really need a new machine for bufkit/GR2A for exclusively home use). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Hard to believe the July 10 1989 outbreak doesn't make the list. The New Haven F4 had a very small path length, but there were plenty of other damaging tornadoes from that day, including another F4 with a 42 mile path according to the wikipedia article. This was the day that first got me interested in severe weather, and there's not much question that it was a massive outbreak for the Northeast, I would have thought it would make the list. That's actually a good question. I'll have to go back and look at the calculations. It's possible that the long-tracked tornado in Upstate NY that day fell just outside the domain. Thanks for pointing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 That's actually a good question. I'll have to go back and look at the calculations. It's possible that the long-tracked tornado in Upstate NY that day fell just outside the domain. Thanks for pointing this out. I know that there were a number of tornadoes in Massachusetts that day recorded with path length of like 0.1 miles. Not sure if that was enough to screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Being there was unbelievable was just in awe Hard to believe the July 10 1989 outbreak doesn't make the list. The New Haven F4 had a very small path length, but there were plenty of other damaging tornadoes from that day, including another F4 with a 42 mile path according to the wikipedia article. This was the day that first got me interested in severe weather, and there's not much question that it was a massive outbreak for the Northeast, I would have thought it would make the list. Don't want to derail the thread, though, those are some very pretty images. Hard to believe I just sat there on June 1 watching the Springfield cell on radar, but the situation went so fast from a whole bunch of storms that looked like they might congeal into a big mess, and then instead all of a sudden you had a couple of dominant tornado producing supercells... If I'd been just a little more willing to commit to a target I would have been there, but it's so easy to be pessimistic regarding chase prospects in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 I know that there were a number of tornadoes in Massachusetts that day recorded with path length of like 0.1 miles. Not sure if that was enough to screw things up. Nevermind... just realized DPI is a summation. Probably the Schoharie one was out of the domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 The 1989 CT tornadoes are in storm data with ridiculously narrow widths. All 100ft or under. That's probably why the DPI is so small. Looking at aerial pictures you can see the damage is clearly at least 1/4 mile in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The 1989 CT tornadoes are in storm data with ridiculously narrow widths. All 100ft or under. That's probably why the DPI is so small. Looking at aerial pictures you can see the damage is clearly at least 1/4 mile in some areas. Yeah, I just went back through the spreadsheet. The long track tornado in NY was west of our domain...and the remaining tornadoes over CT and MA had too small lengths and widths (like 100 yds) to allow for a high enough DPI to make the top 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah, I just went back through the spreadsheet. The long track tornado in NY was west of our domain...and the remaining tornadoes over CT and MA had too small lengths and widths to allow for a high enough DPI to make the top 20. Had the CT tornadoes had proper widths it probably would have made the cut. Some of the storm data stuff from 80s/early 90s is suspect IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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