Slopgyre 94L

[gkrangers]

Rambunctious little thing.

[Ed Lizard]

We are desperate for some rain in Florida, hopefully it comes this way.

More desparate. But Florida now, and a TS for SETEX in the next 2 months while oceanic heat content isn't too high, I could handle that.

Still looks semi-craqp on vis satellite, but there is an elongated low level circulation with West winds. And maybe a closed mid level low, judging from rainbow color scheme loop, my preferred IR presentation.

[phil882]

I still think this system has a decent chance as tropical cyclone development in 24-48 hours, but any model forecasting for any sort of tropical system besides a swirl of low clouds is just not based in reality. There is a rather persistent TUTT over the Gulf of Mexico that is not expected to move at all for the next 2-5 days. If 94L moves towards the gulf, it will get ripped apart thanks to 50+ knot westerlies near Cuba. Even if we get a depression or tropical storm out of this, there is pretty much no chance it survives beyond the Caribbean.

[MJW155]

Even if we get a depression or tropical storm out of this, there is pretty much no chance it survives beyond the Caribbean.

Even if it's not a named storm, are the chances decent of the S. Florida area getting some rain of out this?

[phil882]

Even if it's not a named storm, are the chances decent of the S. Florida area getting some rain of out this?

I'd say there is a very good chance this will enhance rainfall across South Florida... although we are still looking around 5 days + before it will arrive.

[MJW155]

I'd say there is a very good chance this will enhance rainfall across South Florida... although we are still looking around 5 days + before it will arrive.

Yea next weekend I heard. Any rain is good at this point. It's dry as a bone down here.

[28storms]

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Outsatnding analyisis 28 storms Keep em coming

[phil882]

Convection is waning currently, but latest microwave shows a rather interesting small circulation forming near Jamaica at 17N and 77W. Its been pretty evident on visible as well.

[jrips27]

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST

FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED

ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WHILE THE SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF

THE AREA OF LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF

THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE

...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF

NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS

THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Amped]

Convection is waning currently, but latest microwave shows a rather interesting small circulation forming near Jamaica at 17N and 77W. Its been pretty evident on visible as well.

Should be over Land by morning. should have SLP obs on it. Also it looks well east of where the GFDL had it. DT maybe correct.

[Srain]

Should be over Land by morning. should have SLP obs on it. Also it looks well east of where the GFDL had it. DT maybe correct.

The surface low remains displaced to the W.

[Amped]

The surface low remains displaced to the W.

It's poorly defined and can easily reform further east under the mid level center. This is a common problem with predicting tropical cyclones before they form. Who knows where the blob will consolidate?

[Srain]

00Z...

[Ed Lizard]

00Z...

I don't know if that is the estimated lowest pressure as the starting point, but I do think if anything does form it'll be farther East/closer to Jamaica.

[Srain]

I don't know if that is the estimated lowest pressure as the starting point, but I do think if anything does form it'll be farther East/closer to Jamaica.

Pressures have been slowly falling at buoy 42057, WSW of Jamaica, not that far from the surface low. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[wxmeddler]

mmmm. diurnal convection, right over the circulation center.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS and Euro not prticularly enthusiastic, and what little there is doesn't last long when it heads North into shear. Could bring needed rain to Florida, maybe.

Remnant vorticity near the Bahamas, not too different on the Euro.

First week of June, no need for rainstorm to panic.

[rainstorm]

GFS and Euro not prticularly enthusiastic, and what little there is doesn't last long when it heads North into shear. Could bring needed rain to Florida, maybe.

Remnant vorticity near the Bahamas, not too different on the Euro.

First week of June, no need for rainstorm to panic.

pretty much what i expected for 94L. my focus is on whether a west atlantic ridge ever locks in and the strong neg NAO reverses. with the NAO so negative 94L never had much of a chance.

[Srain]

Shocking news: RECON cancelled again today.

[kab2791]

Stewart's take on 94L

00

ABNT20 KNHC 061746

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE

SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS

POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR

TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY

RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF

HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[DopplerWx]

Wow, would be nice to get our first TD so early in the season.

[CUmet]

This thing doesn't look anywhere near TD status to me. It's difficult to say that the low-level circulation has made any substantial improvement over the past couple days. Although there is finally quite a bit of convection on the western side, there is little organization, and the upper trough that's sparking it will induce substantial shear starting in about a day or so. 94L is running out of time.

[phil882]

This thing doesn't look anywhere near TD status to me. It's difficult to say that the low-level circulation has made any substantial improvement over the past couple days. Although there is finally quite a bit of convection on the western side, there is little organization, and the upper trough that's sparking it will induce substantial shear starting in about a day or so. 94L is running out of time.

Agreed... its only has about 24 hours left of semi-favorable conditions before the shear due to the TUTT located over the GOM makes conditions inhospitable in the Western Caribbean. At its current state of organization, we are going to need to see a mass of convection develop near the center to have any chance of this thing tightening up in time before the upper level winds increase. My confidence in this thing becoming a tropical cyclone are decreasing.

[OKpowdah]

At first glance, 94L looks like an absolute mess. However, in reality, this invest is rapidly organizing. The convective blow up in the last 6 hours near 15/82 is very near the LLC (currently ~16/82), and is coincident with increasing upper level divergence and minimal LL convergence. The resulting stretching will tighten and intensify the vortex. Right now, the surface low and circulation is analyzed further north, but I think we'll see pressures lowering primarily towards the south this afternoon. Meanwhile as peripheral convection wanes the ML vort max should begin to relocate toward LLC tonight. 94L has a pretty narrow window for development with the approach of the trough and resultant increasing shear, but if current trends continue, we should have TD 1 tomorrow.

[wxmeddler]

At first glance, 94L looks like an absolute mess. However, in reality, this invest is rapidly organizing. The convective blow up in the last 6 hours near 15/82 is very near the LLC (currently ~16/82), and is coincident with increasing upper level divergence and minimal LL convergence. The resulting stretching will tighten and intensify the vortex. Right now, the surface low and circulation is analyzed further north, but I think we'll see pressures lowering primarily towards the south this afternoon. Meanwhile as peripheral convection wanes the ML vort max should begin to relocate toward LLC tonight. 94L has a pretty narrow window for development with the approach of the trough and resultant increasing shear, but if current trends continue, we should have TD 1 tomorrow.

Couldn't of said it better myself! It is still under the effects of diurnal cycling but I think it will take one (maybe 2) more round(s) to get this thing going before the window closes. The engine is now turning over, and there is gas in the tank. Will it go? Stay tuned.

[flwxwatcher45]

The 12z model runs today don't show much love at all to 94L . Looks like the party is about over.

[Srain]

Pffft. Enjoy your rain, FL...

HPC:

TROPICS... GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF

BROAD LOW PRESSURE FCST TO BE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN AS OF DAY 3

THU AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS BELOW AVERAGE

ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYS 3-4. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A

TRACK THAT IS WELL WITHIN THE BROAD SOLN ENVELOPE... WITH A

REMNANT LOW CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE

PERIOD.

[phil882]

At first glance, 94L looks like an absolute mess. However, in reality, this invest is rapidly organizing. The convective blow up in the last 6 hours near 15/82 is very near the LLC (currently ~16/82), and is coincident with increasing upper level divergence and minimal LL convergence. The resulting stretching will tighten and intensify the vortex. Right now, the surface low and circulation is analyzed further north, but I think we'll see pressures lowering primarily towards the south this afternoon. Meanwhile as peripheral convection wanes the ML vort max should begin to relocate toward LLC tonight. 94L has a pretty narrow window for development with the approach of the trough and resultant increasing shear, but if current trends continue, we should have TD 1 tomorrow.

Sorry but I can't agree with the bolded statement. The convective blow up at 15/82 might be somewhat close to the broad llc, but I see little to no obvious banding features, and this system is gonna need a much larger mass of convection to tighten up this circulation. In fact that area of convection you are citing is mainly the result of an outflow boundary, which suggests there is still a decent amount of mid-level dry air being injested into the circulation, which makes it unlikely we will see any sort of major blow up in the short term. Maybe we will see something happen with the diurnal max tonight, but the clock is ticking.

[turtlehurricane]

That is super bold wording from the NHC, probably overdid it. The most organized thing in this mess is the swirl north of Jamaica, but that's about to hit Cuba. The swirl to the west will need to get a good convective burst tonight and hold onto it to form, but shear seems to strong.