NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 just so we have an official thread on the topic. NOt sure if Philly is included in the slight risk, but it's close enough. Hail is 5% in all included areas And maybe someone can keep the updated rainfall totals here as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Slight risk does include Philly: ...EASTERN STATES... A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS OH THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND LOW INTO THE EASTERN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER WV/VA AND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. BROKEN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF VA/MD BY LATE MORNING...HELPING TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE BEEN DECREASING EACH DAY ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS FROM DC/PHL SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN VA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. Also, was wondering if anyone had a radar loop from about 12am-6am today? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Also, was wondering if anyone had a radar loop from about 12am-6am today? Thanks in advance http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DIX go to right hand side of the page, kind of at the bottom and view the radar archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 looks like several days of potential for localized street and urban flooding as well as minor coastal flooding with persistent onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Clearing up nicely here. CAPE could be half decent this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Clearing up nicely here. CAPE could be half decent this afternoon. looks like some decent breaks as you are saying incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Need that clearing to make it up here for a shot of some good storms... all the indicies are starting to get going south of the m/d line with the clearing lapse rates cape lift index is still rather weak as well as the bulk shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 i'd be happy with just some regular boomers... had a few good rounds last night.. tents almost collapsed at the grad party i was at from the rain buildup! it's def getting brighter here(stating the obvious), so maybe we'll get into some clearing. Seems like the vorticity's rolling through are strong enough on their own right to produce garden variety storms. let's see how the day turns out. New SPC outlook should be coming out by 1230 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF MD/VA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... UPPER LOW OVER OH WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY NEWD AND CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND THRU TONIGHT AS A MORE VIGOROUS VORT MAX DIGS SEWD INTO THE GULF STATES. A WEAK S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN THE W/V IMAGERY THIS AM WV/VA ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST SWLY FLOW PRECEDES THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S FROM ERN NC NWD TO SERN PA AND CONSIDERABLE DAY-TIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED BY GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR. HOWEVER WITH THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH MLCAPES LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. New outlook by SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 18 sref hitting the area hard with rain, which is in line with the new 12z euro dumping 3- inches over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Heavy rain here in Upper Darby. Blue skied all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 tacked on another .1 from the last thunderstorm. So far today .56 in the bucket, .66 total since sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 ..MID-ATLANTIC REGION... MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS INDICATED ACROSS ERN VA/ERN NC AND INTO SERN PA...WHERE HEATING HAS HELPED PUSH MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. BANDS OF CONVECTION EVIDENT ON VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN OH/SERN INDIANA/NRN KY...BUT MODEST SHEAR W OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. FARTHER E...30 TO 40 KT SSWLYS AT MID-LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED CELLS TO EVOLVE -- MAINLY FROM ERN NC NWD TO SERN PA/SRN NJ -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS IN THIS AREA. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. Slight risk expanded northward to account for clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Looks like a storm is trying to form over the top of me here in EAston, PA...getting very dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It appears the Allentown split has returned for at least the first half of today. Severe storm to the NW, another storm to the east, nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It appears the Allentown split has returned for at least the first half of today. Severe storm to the NW, another storm to the east, nothing here. It's literally 5 miles to your north, lol. Don't know if I would call that a split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It appears the Allentown split has returned for at least the first half of today. Severe storm to the NW, another storm to the east, nothing here. Easton split as well...constant rumbles to the north right now with nothing here. Bangor and Belvidere, and other surrounding communities appear to be getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 .8 so far today, another storm just went over head, dropped another .1-.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Thoroughly unimpressed with today....expected much more than a humid day. Storms to the southwest won't get here before dark and will lose all their fuel. I just want some stinkin' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 impressive rumbles rolled through here NBerks Off and on downpours with 0.6 in the bucket today (1.3 since yesterday) and the train is setting up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Thoroughly unimpressed with today....expected much more than a humid day. Storms to the southwest won't get here before dark and will lose all their fuel. I just want some stinkin' rain. what were you expecting a mid west type outbreak? Todays forecast was for showers and thunderstorms through out the area, which is occuring right now. Not every place will get which usually happens with this type of setup. The places that do get hit will get a deluge for 5-10 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Thoroughly unimpressed with today....expected much more than a humid day. Storms to the southwest won't get here before dark and will lose all their fuel. I just want some stinkin' rain. Today was always a marginal severe day. And rain is coming, lol. You always act like Wilmington is in such a huge drought or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 nice tower going up to my south. I don't see any echoes on BR yet, but it's right out my window (which is SE) usually i can see stuff from burlington, mt. holly and LBI right out my window but i dont see anything on radar yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 nice tower going up to my south. I don't see any echoes on BR yet, but it's right out my window (which is SE) usually i can see stuff from burlington, mt. holly and LBI right out my window but i dont see anything on radar yet Very nice tower to my south as well which is the severe tstorm which will track just to my east. Some heavy rain for 5 mins here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Pouring here, up to 0.80" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 very rumbly and dark just to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 up to 1.00" here for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 up to 1.00" here for the day. nothing here but partly sunny skies for the day. Forecast really screwed the cash register today (fair weather golfers) but you can't win them all. Actually today would have been a great day to play golf (70F, clouds, no wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It can never rain enough here......put in like 2 dozen new landscaping plants and 10 flats of annuals over the past 2 weekends so I need rain....lots of it. Today was always a marginal severe day. And rain is coming, lol. You always act like Wilmington is in such a huge drought or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.