Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Sref's and the God awful NAM which up until last nite was pegging a noreaster for us Sunday...show some decent probs for some cold pool storms late tonight thru tomorrow evening..Best chances look to be over Central areas first ..then a bit east away from the coast. First naked Wiz ham episode of the year seems likely Obs and disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Sref's and the God awful NAM which up until last nite was pegging a noreaster for us Sunday...show some decent probs for some cold pool storms late tonight thru tomorrow evening..Best chances look to be over Central areas first ..then a bit east away from the coast. First naked Wiz ham episode of the year seems likely Obs and disco I think you can include ern mass as well with this cold pool. Probably ctrl and ern areas have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 SATURDAY... A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND WE DO EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -25 EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 500 J/KG. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...SO WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATED THE HIGHEST CAPES MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MA/EASTERN CT AND RHODE ISLAND...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THIS REGION EAST OF KEVIN AND WEATHER WIZS RANGE OF VIEWING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 One of those always interesting cold pool setups tomorrow. With enough surface heating coupled with the cold pool this should lead to some weak instability over the region. One thing that will limit the amount of instability will be the lackluster moisture as dewpoints will be rather low. There should be enough forcing and lift for the development of showers and a few storms and given the very low freezing levels some of these may contain some small hail. Not sure if we have enough in place to see any severe hail but you can't say never in these setups. Vertical shear is rather weak so this will tend to limit updraft strength/growth and should keep things from getting too organized. Good news is everyone has a shot tomorrow, even the coastal areas. In fact eastern sections may fair a bit better as there looks to be some weak moisture convergence across eastern MA which could help things out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Poor Wiz, being a severe weather freak in New England is like being a snow freak in the MA, frustrating and for the most part futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Poor Wiz, being a severe weather freak in New England is like being a snow freak in the MA, frustrating and for the most part futile. Actually not really. I enjoy any type of t'storm, wither it's severe or not. While I do hope to get them IMBY it doesn't totally matter to me if I don't see anything on a day when storms are possible, although I do get upset if nothing hits me. I just enjoy tracking them across the region. I love looking at the models and looking for a day or days when convection could be possible and just tracking the threat on the models leading up to the potential day. I like looking at the AFD's for the discussions and the SPC outlooks to see if they highlight anything. I really can't sleep until I've seen the SPC outlooks or read the AFD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I like cold pool setups... very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Wiz is over the magic 10000 posts... 5000 of them occur when he is the only one awake watching the Sox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I like cold pool setups... very interesting After the summer of 2008 I've quickly grown to LOVE cold pools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Wiz is over the magic 10000 posts... 5000 of them occur when he is the only one awake watching the Sox Hey the fans needed a way to keep themselves awake/entertained for that game and I needed a way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Well I have nothing to do today so I can sit back and watch whatever develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Major damage coming today..major major damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 It would be nice if we could get some of those stronger vertical shear values that are off to our south and west to spread into the area...perhaps southern CT/RI/SE MA get some 30-35 kt vertical shear values. Highest dewpoints right now are across eastern sections of SNE where dewpoints are near 50F...they might climb another degree or two depending on the level/strength of any moisture convergence later on in the afternoon. This is where SBcape values could near 800-900 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Pretty sick...-27C isotherm associated with the cold pool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 something to keep an eye on today is any moisture advection. guidance essentially says there's none and tds stay between 7-10C all day which limits the amount of cape. but there is a light s flow with dews in the lower to mid 50s over LI. any little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 something to keep an eye on today is any moisture advection. guidance essentially says there's none and tds stay between 7-10C all day which limits the amount of cape. but there is a light s flow with dews in the lower to mid 50s over LI. any little bit helps. Great point. When dealing with such a steep lapse rate environment such as today a dewpoint difference of even 2-3°F can probably mean as much as 250-500 J/KG of cape...easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Already 500 J/KG of SBcape and MUcape across parts of extreme NE CT/N RI and E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Oh wow...30-40 knots of vertical shear too across much of CT/RI/far SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Latest 9z SPC SREF beefing up probs a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 9z SREF also indicating a 10% chance that sfc dewpoints out across E. MA get into the mid 50's...not a very high chance but any moisture pooling or moisture advection that occurs will have to be watched as Phil mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Latest 9z SPC SREF beefing up probs a bit: I'm expecting whole forests down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I'm expecting whole forests down I'm thinking today is more hailers than wind if we were to see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Up to 1000 J/KG of SBcape now across extreme NE CT/N RI/E MA with a small pocket of 500 J/KG of MLcape and 1000 J/KG of MUcape!!!!! 500 J/KG for central MA and central CT to SE NH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 On and off thunder and lightning here during the last 20 minutes. No rain, but some good strikes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 On and off thunder and lightning here during the last 20 minutes. No rain, but some good strikes.... How close is the storm to you? Keep an eye out for any hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I would think we see at least a SEE TEXT from the SPC with the new day 1...I can't believe we aren't in one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Will must be seeing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 How close is the storm to you? Keep an eye out for any hail. Couple of miles....very local storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Another pocket TSTM in SNH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Once the first sucker went up we should start seeing a slew of them pop up. Better get a shower quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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