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December 1-3 lake effect snow event


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Band has crept just a bit north, so I'm now in the northern edge with light snow. Nice to not be totally shut out from the fun....

I'm glad that it's staying over the southern suburbs.I hope it stays over west Seneca for hours to come. Don Paul said it may not shift south tomorrow like it was expected to which means the totals if that happens may be higher then the 2-3 feet forecasted now.
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I'm glad that it's staying over the southern suburbs.I hope it stays over west Seneca for hours to come. Don Paul said it may not shift south tomorrow like it was expected to which means the totals if that happens may be higher then the 2-3 feet forecasted now.

I honestly don't expect to see a dramatic southward shift until sometime tomorrow evening. The mean h85 wind direction through at least 00z tomorrow evening is expected to oscillate between 255-265 degrees....which will allow the band to wiggle back and forth between the south towns and southern portions of the immediate metro area. If anyone is going to get three feet, it will likely be somewhere in the Hamburg-Orchard Park-West Seneca triangle. Really amazing event unfolding.

I think a lot of us underestimated the true potential here...at least I certainly did. I guess you don't necessarily need "extreme" instability to generate prolific amounts of snow. Moderate instability combined with a saturated or near-saturated boundary layer below h7 and a steady well-aligned wind averaging less than 35kts at h85 will get the job done.

Enjoy it!

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The only thing probably preventing this from being an even bigger event is the fact that the greatest lift appears to be centered below the dendritic growth layer...at least on the bufkit cross sections, which may not be the best representation of the true state of the atmosphere but is probably the closest we'll come for now! With most of the omega centered below that layer, I suspect the ratios aren't as high as they could be.

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Thryway now closed in ALL lanes past exit 53 =]

heres why...

Yeah absolutely insane out there. About 15-16 inches here near Mckinley Mall/ Target area in Orchard Park. Coming down in buckets still. Here is a video of a lightning n thunder off my back window. Play in 720p HD for good quality. It is at 1 min 5 seconds.

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The only thing probably preventing this from being an even bigger event is the fact that the greatest lift appears to be centered below the dendritic growth layer...at least on the bufkit cross sections, which may not be the best representation of the true state of the atmosphere but is probably the closest we'll come for now! With most of the omega centered below that layer, I suspect the ratios aren't as high as they could be.

I don't know, the 0Z sounding looks good to me, especially since there is visible higher convective bursts on RADAR and with the steepest lapse rates directly underneath the inversion, the beefiest omega would be directly through the favorable snow crystal growth zone, at least under convective bursts.

post-999-0-11180300-1291275912.gif

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I don't know, the 0Z sounding looks good to me, especially since there is visible higher convective bursts on RADAR and with the steepest lapse rates directly underneath the inversion, the beefiest omega would be directly through the favorable snow crystal growth zone, at least under convective bursts.

post-999-0-11180300-1291275912.gif

good point...I think Kulaginman was referencing the omega on the NAM and local WRF models...which shows the core of the omega near 900mb...which would be below the dendritic snow crystal growth layer.

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"

SNOWFALL REPORTS SO FAR (3 AM)...FROM THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WHICH

BEGAN EARLY WED AFTERNOON (EXCLUDING THE 2-4 INCH SYNOPTIC SNOW WED

MORNING) SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 12 TO 16 INCHES FROM WEST SENECA AND

SOUTH LANCASTER TO ALDEN...WITH ALMOST AS MUCH IN HAMBURG. BAND

ACTUALLY LIFTED NORTH OF THE SOUTHTOWNS WED EVENING GIVING THEM A

BREAK. THE NORTHERN CUTOFF WAS REMARKABLE...WITH NOTHING AT MAIN ST

IN WILLIAMSVILLE OR DELAWARE PARK IN BUF TO 3 INCHES AT AIRPORT TO

11 INCHES IN NORTH LANCASTER...ALL WITHIN A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 5

MILES." :axe:

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...ERIE COUNTY...

ALDEN 23.0 708 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE MILLGROVE

DEPEW 20.0 615 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE

LANCASTER 19.0 445 AM 12/2 SOUTH- NWS EMPLOYEE

MARILLA 17.5 700 AM 12/2

HAMBURG 16.5 707 AM 12/2 LAKEVIEW SPOTTER

LANCASTER 16.5 200 AM 12/2 NORTH- NWS EMPLOYEE

ELMA 16.0 130 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 16.0 600 AM 12/2

EAST AURORA 11.0 708 AM 12/2

BUFFALO 5.7 500 AM 12/2 AIRPORT(NWS)(2.7 LK EFF)

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