general march discussion

[tornadojay]

Yea.. Looking very mild.. Unless the 0z GFS has the right idea in a few weeks with what looks to be -NAO conditions... Otherwise, snow chances seem slim

[tmagan]

Yea.. Looking very mild.. Unless the 0z GFS has the right idea in a few weeks with what looks to be -NAO conditions... Otherwise, snow chances seem slim

I initially thought Central Park had a good chance to getting to number two on the all-time snowfall list, that seems out the door.

[Weathergun]

Yup, it has us 60+ F next Friday and then 65+ the middle of that following week.

I would watch the ULL in the Canadian Maritimes and Central Atlantic ridge, the models are developing, to prevent us from torching after Friday. The models don't typically handle those features well.

[NEG NAO]

Anybody considering planting a garden at least from I-80 North and to be on the safe side I-70 North better wait a few weeks (unless whatever your planting can take several days of snow on top of it and cold) and read this - Bastardi is trying to make a name for himself over at WeatherBell - so he is not messing around

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/

[TheTrials]

Yup, it has us 60+ F next Friday and then 65+ the middle of that following week.

nice, golf season is approaching

[Chris L]

nice, golf season is approaching

It is already here.

[TheTrials]

It is already here.

courses are water logged and a lot of snow mold. its gonna be a few more weeks

[NEG NAO]

Joe D'Aleo says late season cold shot snowstorm still possible this LaNina March/April

http://www.weatherbell.com/jd/

[nzucker]

38.5/30

FAIR

Nice crisp mid-March night, will be the first to fall below freezing in a while. Should be slightly chillier tomorrow night.

Just looked back through the 12/26 threads, what an epic storm to begin an epic season

But man did the pattern change fast...certainly some melancholy moments now sitting here during a snowless March and wondering if we have any flakes left in the 2010-11 Winter. I still haven't gotten past my total from last year, which looked to be dead on arrival after the epic January. Stuck at 65.75"...Has this winter got one last blow left? I'm not feeling it, but one thing the last two seasons have taught me is to never say never. What a run.

[Dark Energy]

38.5/30

FAIR

Nice crisp mid-March night, will be the first to fall below freezing in a while. Should be slightly chillier tomorrow night.

Just looked back through the 12/26 threads, what an epic storm to begin an epic season

But man did the pattern change fast...certainly some melancholy moments now sitting here during a snowless March and wondering if we have any flakes left in the 2010-11 Winter. I still haven't gotten past my total from last year, which looked to be dead on arrival after the epic January. Stuck at 65.75"...Has this winter got one last blow left? I'm not feeling it, but one thing the last two seasons have taught me is to never say never. What a run.

I'm really interested if the park can get to freezing tomorrow night. Northerly flow is forecast (the best flow for the cold air of course, but does go 045 later on), but it's weak. Have mainly clear skies as well. OKX has them down to 33. It will be close. Burbs could hit the teens with this Canadian high. We won't be talking about these numbers for a while after tomorrow night tho. I think the end of the week, if all goes as planned, the metro could get over 70.

[nzucker]

I'm really interested if the park can get to freezing tomorrow night. Northerly flow is forecast (the best flow for the cold air of course, but does go 045 later on), but it's weak. Have mainly clear skies as well. OKX has them down to 33. It will be close. Burbs could hit the teens with this Canadian high. We won't be talking about these numbers for a while after tomorrow night tho. I think the end of the week, if all goes as planned, the metro could get over 70.

Friday looks really warm with that low being progged further and further north, limiting cloud cover.

I see one more cold period around March 23/24 as the models seem to want to build some blocking at that juncture. That might be the last widespread freeze for the urban areas.

[Dark Energy]

Friday looks really warm with that low being progged further and further north, limiting cloud cover.

I see one more cold period around March 23/24 as the models seem to want to build some blocking at that juncture. That might be the last widespread freeze for the urban areas.

Yea, I saw the blocking 10 days down the road on the gfs ensemble mean yesterday. It's pretty damped out of course by then, will be interesting as we get closer if the blocking gets stronger.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm really interested if the park can get to freezing tomorrow night. Northerly flow is forecast (the best flow for the cold air of course, but does go 045 later on), but it's weak. Have mainly clear skies as well. OKX has them down to 33. It will be close. Burbs could hit the teens with this Canadian high. We won't be talking about these numbers for a while after tomorrow night tho. I think the end of the week, if all goes as planned, the metro could get over 70.

So tomorrow night could be the city's last freeze of the season?

[nzucker]

Yea, I saw the blocking 10 days down the road on the gfs ensemble mean yesterday. It's pretty damped out of course by then, will be interesting as we get closer if the blocking gets stronger.

One more snowfall for the road?

JB and HM seem to think so.

[green tube]

But man did the pattern change fast...certainly some melancholy moments now sitting here during a snowless March and wondering if we have any flakes left in the 2010-11 Winter. I still haven't gotten past my total from last year, which looked to be dead on arrival after the epic January. Stuck at 65.75"...Has this winter got one last blow left? I'm not feeling it, but one thing the last two seasons have taught me is to never say never. What a run.

last 2 winters have been pretty fantastic.... yet a bit schitzo IMBY... these numbers are kinda nuts....

snow totals:

jan 2010 .5"

jan 2011 33.5"

feb 2010 40.0"

feb 2011 1.0"

[Dark Energy]

So tomorrow night could be the city's last freeze of the season?

I don't think it will. As Nate and myself said, there are signs of some blocking setting up down the line in March. And also HM noted, we may see a period of cold from April 5-10. I know the winter outlooks posted way back when said that they liked a winter with a good start, then a wane, then a good ending. So this may be panning out just as that. Of course, so many things have to work right in April. But, I know from the many times you have posted it, it CAN snow in april. lol.

[nzucker]

I had 10" this February after over 40" in January...I was lucky to get hit hard by the 2/21 overrunning event this February with 8" falling; for many people in the metro area, winter ended on January 27th.

Last season, I had 48" in February

[nzucker]

I don't think it will. As Nate and myself said, there are signs of some blocking setting up down the line in March. And also HM noted, we may see a period of cold from April 5-10. I know the winter outlooks posted way back when said that they liked a winter with a good start, then a wane, then a good ending. So this may be panning out just as that. Of course, so many things have to work right in April. But, I know from the many times you have posted it, it CAN snow in april. lol.

Day 10 on the 0z GFS:

Finally gets the -NAO back in there. The two periods I like for final cold shots or potential snowfalls are 3/22-25 and 4/5-10 as HM mentioned. But it's certainly unlikely to see accumulating snow at that point, it must be acknowledged.

[Dark Energy]

East based -NAO. Imagine it west based?

[nzucker]

East based -NAO. Imagine it west based?

God what I would do to kill that vortex over Baffin Island. That thing has owned us since early February, disgusting.

Pacific also doesn't look that friendly on the GFS. Still fighting the strong Niña for sure, but some hints of higher heights in the West ahead of the ULL off Cali.

[A-L-E-X]

38.5/30

FAIR

Nice crisp mid-March night, will be the first to fall below freezing in a while. Should be slightly chillier tomorrow night.

Just looked back through the 12/26 threads, what an epic storm to begin an epic season

But man did the pattern change fast...certainly some melancholy moments now sitting here during a snowless March and wondering if we have any flakes left in the 2010-11 Winter. I still haven't gotten past my total from last year, which looked to be dead on arrival after the epic January. Stuck at 65.75"...Has this winter got one last blow left? I'm not feeling it, but one thing the last two seasons have taught me is to never say never. What a run.

I remember you said you would be extremely upset if you ended up with less snow than you got less winter, which was 68"?

[Dark Energy]

I remember you said you would be extremely upset if you ended up with less snow than you got less winter, which was 68"?

heck, on the pace we were setting, why wouldn't he? The last storm I had here was the +fzra storm on 2/1. He at least got the overrunning later in the month which netted 8". As much as I want spring to come fast so we can watch baseball, it would be a nice parting gift to get one last storm. ONLY b/c we had such a break in between. If we just got owned one after another all season up until now, I wouldn't be singing the same tune.

[nzucker]

I remember you said you would be extremely upset if you ended up with less snow than you got less winter, which was 68"?

Yeah...we only had like 14" here through February last year, so 68" was pretty impressive.

This winter we had 55" at the end of January and are sitting at 65.75"... February wasn't terrible but definitely below average, followed by a horrid March. This was definitely, overall, though a better winter than 09-10. And it's no joke to have two near 70" consecutive winters here; I live inside of 10 miles from the Bronx. Very impressive, back to back doesn't usually happen here.

[nzucker]

heck, on the pace we were setting, why wouldn't he? The last storm I had here was the +fzra storm on 2/1. He at least got the overrunning later in the month which netted 8". As much as I want spring to come fast so we can watch baseball, it would be a nice parting gift to get one last storm. ONLY b/c we had such a break in between. If we just got owned one after another all season up until now, I wouldn't be singing the same tune.

How much do you have this year total?

[A-L-E-X]

heck, on the pace we were setting, why wouldn't he? The last storm I had here was the +fzra storm on 2/1. He at least got the overrunning later in the month which netted 8". As much as I want spring to come fast so we can watch baseball, it would be a nice parting gift to get one last storm. ONLY b/c we had such a break in between. If we just got owned one after another all season up until now, I wouldn't be singing the same tune.

Yeah, this winter isnt exactly the best possible.... I would have ranked 1995-96 and 2002-03 both well above it.... because I prize longevity more than anything else (and big storms a close 2nd.) While the snowstorms we saw earlier in the winter were very good, they werent on the level of Jan 96 or PD2.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah...we only had like 14" here through February last year, so 68" was pretty impressive.

This winter we had 55" at the end of January and are sitting at 65.75"... February wasn't terrible but definitely below average, followed by a horrid March. This was definitely, overall, though a better winter than 09-10. And it's no joke to have two near 70" consecutive winters here; I live inside of 10 miles from the Bronx. Very impressive, back to back doesn't usually happen here.

This is my 3rd place winter, with 09-10 in 4th place.

[Dark Energy]

How much do you have this year total?

We got shafted on a few storms here in hunterdon county. Have 51.3" for the season. Well above what was expected tho.

[nzucker]

We got shafted on a few storms here in hunterdon county. Have 51.3" for the season. Well above what was expected tho.

Wow....and you probably average quite a bit more than I. That's a bit disappointing. You were pretty screwed with Boxing Day too, I shared in that painful affair.

But no one can be too upset given the strong Niña and lucky turns we've seen...

[Dark Energy]

Yeah, this winter isnt exactly the best possible.... I would have ranked 1995-96 and 2002-03 both well above it.... because I prize longevity more than anything else (and big storms a close 2nd.) While the snowstorms we saw earlier in the winter were very good, they werent on the level of Jan 96 or PD2.

96 is still the king around here. IIRC, we had close to 20" with that. My driveway was a mess.

[green tube]

Yeah, this winter isnt exactly the best possible.... I would have ranked 1995-96 and 2002-03 both well above it.... because I prize longevity more than anything else (and big storms a close 2nd.) While the snowstorms we saw earlier in the winter were very good, they werent on the level of Jan 96 or PD2.

for me locally, the 2 big ones this year were both better than PDII.

1996 still pretty much stomped this winter (locally)......... however, back to back 50"+ winters is extraordinary... and is right up there in the "you'll be telling your grandchildren" category.