mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The low exits off of Hatteras. Wouldn't take much to move that north, would it, Snow88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GGEM same as GFS, congrats DC. Which is a good thing this far out in a swfe, Nina regime, it's gonna come in more north. How much is the ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wouldn't take much to move that north, would it, Snow88? It really wouldn't, Matt, you just need the PV to be a bit weaker. For NYC, the first system is 2-4" of snow mixed with a bit of drizzle. Although the second system misses to the south, verbatim, it's certainly a bigger threat. The 0z GFS gives DC a bunch of powder from the storm, quite a contrast with the 60-70F temperatures the Eastern Seaboard is expecting Friday. Looks extremely cold after the overrunning, definitely well below average for late February. Could be the beginning of a nice wintry stretch with two moderate events next week, arctic cold, and then potentially a more favorable pattern for a coastal by 3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 0z EURO is pretty far north at 102hrs and warm, let's see if a second wave develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 hr 102 on 00z euro has the first wave pretty much staying north of the area.....it def ejected it out faster and confluence not as strong....looks like some light sleet hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro at 108 is warm and north of our area with the lp. Looks like it might be the only wave, unless energy develops later this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 hr 108 low over cpa.. light.rain for everyone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Does not appear as if anything is on its heels, good hit for NY, VT, MA, NH, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If only we had a +PNA, without it the pattern remains split, zonal, and progressive. Nothing gets going and hghts on the east coast remain flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nothing is impressive about the euro run, nothing special brewing. Pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Does not appear as if anything is on its heels, good hit for NY, VT, MA, NH, ME. The problem is that this area needs the storm to be mainly the second wave as the 0z GFS showed. If the first wave decides to amplify too much, then we'd almost certainly see mix-->rain as the confluence is just moving into place early next week, so we don't have much blocking early on and the -PNA rates to send everything fairly far north. If the main system turns out to be composed of the second wave ejecting from the western trough, then NYC metro is good for some snow. Obviously, the models are having difficulty resolving the break-down of the western trough considering the ECM and GFS have completely traded places in the last 24 hours. I'd certainly lean towards the system being more amplified/further north than the 0z GFS, given that we have a robust shortwave, a decent SE ridge, and only a weak NAO block. That definitely argues for an event tainted with precipitation type issues in NYC metro, but it doesn't mean that we can't see some wintry weather, especially the further north and west you go. It will probably be a few days before we know the answer, but the pattern argues against a big snowstorm with a -PNA and little blocking, especially if the storm is the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Does not appear as if anything is on its heels, good hit for NY, VT, MA, NH, ME. Strange that the Euro and GFS traded places. Maybe an off Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nothing is impressive about the euro run, nothing special brewing. Pretty boring. Does it still have the cold weather next week as 12z showed? Obviously, we're not going to get a large Nor'easter with a huge -PNA...that will have to wait until the pattern change expected in early March. We could still bump up our totals with some overrunning and SW flow events, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Does it still have the cold weather next week as 12z showed? Obviously, we're not going to get a large Nor'easter with a huge -PNA...that will have to wait until the pattern change expected in early March. We could still bump up our totals with some overrunning and SW flow events, though. By later next week the euro shows the SE ridge flexing its muscle and warm weather begins to penetrate the eastern US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Strange that the Euro and GFS traded places. Maybe an off Euro run? Not if the pattern evolves as it depicts, an early ejection results in a further north solution because the confluence and block are not well established. It is warm and after the initial wave cold enters for a short period of time. It has no second wave and no snow, then things warm again. Pretty poor looking pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Low next weekend cuts and pumps hgts on the east coast. Warm weather and a pronounced ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not if the pattern evolves as it depicts, an early ejection results in a further north solution because the confluence and block are not well established. It is warm and after the initial wave cold enters for a short period of time. It has no second wave and no snow, then things warm again. Pretty poor looking pattern Ugh this is a pretty big disappointment after the 12z ECM and 0z GFS showed a big snow threat and then very cold temperatures afterward. It's going to be hard here with the -PNA, however, just not looking as if we get any big storms or consistent cold until March. Hopefully we score a couple inches here and there from SW flow events riding up the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ugh this is a pretty big disappointment after the 12z ECM and 0z GFS showed a big snow threat and then very cold temperatures afterward. It's going to be hard here with the -PNA, however, just not looking as if we get any big storms or consistent cold until March. Hopefully we score a couple inches here and there from SW flow events riding up the SE ridge. Nice rain later next week and warm temps. Pretty ugly. I am a pretty optimistic person, but this pattern is far from remotely supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 65+ degrees next Saturday on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 65+ degrees next Saturday on the Euro Probably too warm, but the trials of the strong -PNA is showing on the Euro...first with the Feb 21-22 system and then in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 65+ degrees next Saturday on the Euro yep raining in Burlington, VT, it is not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 pattern blew it's load this season premature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 pattern blew it's load this season premature... I think we get it back in March for one more coastal. February always sucks in a strong La Niña, so this isn't too much of a surprise. 1955-56 is one of the top analogs for this winter, a strong La Niña in a -PDO cycle with a -NAO, and look at the Jekyll&Hyde pattern that existed in late winter: February 1956 was mild in the Northeast: March 1956 was very cold with a KU storm that dropped 10-20" in the NYC metro area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Is there any way NYC can get 5-10 inches of snow around President's Day, despite -PNA, -NAO and -AO. Can the perfect timing get us there ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 65+ degrees next Saturday on the Euro 850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at. Pattern evolution after Day 7 makes little sense on the 0z ECM OP; the 500mb isn't nearly as bad as I expected with a strong -EPO block, a 50/50 low, and a weak -NAO. However, as usual, it holds the energy back too long in the Southwest...with that low just sitting there for eternity, eventually enough ridging builds up to drive a huge cutter. Probably not going to happen, I'd bet it's another SW flow event, standard pattern for that with a -EPO/-PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at. Lol, dude I have the actual temperature data. I see what it's showing in front of my face, it's not like I am just making that up off of the pattern. It has a small area of western New Jersey into Eastern PA at or over 65 degrees at 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at. Pattern evolution after Day 7 makes little sense on the 0z ECM OP; the 500mb isn't nearly as bad as I expected with a strong -EPO block, a 50/50 low, and a weak -NAO. However, as usual, it holds the energy back too long in the Southwest...with that low just sitting there for eternity, eventually enough ridging builds up to drive a huge cutter. Probably not going to happen, I'd bet it's another SW flow event, standard pattern for that with a -EPO/-PNA. It is that warm dude. Low is to our west, strong WAA with temps surging. The entire northeast pretty much seeing rain. Strong southerly winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me. YEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me. Yeah verbatim its ugly...but what it does with that plains s/w is laughable between 204-240. Doubt it goes like that. It totally focuses every ounce of energy on a little piece riding up the ridge east of the Rockies. Regardless, probably fruitless arguing an OP run beyond 6 days anyway...nevermind at 234 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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