CNYWxGuy Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 A storm has been on the models for quite a few runs now for this timeframe, and since this is now T-6 to 7 Days out, figured I would do the honors of opening a thread. Here is a couple images from Tonight's 0z runs to get things going... GFS... Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z GFS Total QPF (relevent)... This is a 72-Hour graphic to cover what is modeled to be a 30-36 hour event on this run. It captures a good many hours before the arrival of the storm, but with no QPF over the area, take this as a relevent storm total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z ECM slower / weaker and continues to shift south. Tonight's 0z solution brings a light snow event only as far north as I-90 vicinity with total QPF under .25"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Even if GFS LP track verifies that QPF forecast won't it flat out way overdone IMO. Looking at the stacked WSW flow aloft there is no way that the QP will be that much. As of now it looks like a good WAA/PIVA front-end thump perhaps but again not as much QP as it is showing. Just think back to a couple of weeks ago when we had the Midwest-OV blizzard with similar flow aloft. This system has even more of a westerly component aloft through height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This one definitely looks to get squeezed under the negative NAO. The question may become whether it ends up south of us. To me it is an interesting event, but can never be a real big deal so we go into it with modest expectations and if by chance someone gets a moderate snowfall (as in 6 inches) then that's a net plus. If we are gonna get the elusive bomb with big snows ....it's probably a March affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Another hardcore-swiffering on the 18z GFS, although there was a distinct shift toward the CMC / ECM wrt track. Hopefully this doesn't get shunted too far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Another hardcore-swiffering on the 18z GFS, although there was a distinct shift toward the CMC / ECM wrt track. Hopefully this doesn't get shunted too far south... Lack of blocking should keep us in the game correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lack of blocking should keep us in the game correct? There's that huge PV moving into SE Canada, though, which is trying to suppress the storm track. There's actually some blocking now as the 12z ECM shows a weak 534dm ridge over Greenland/Labrador which is locking the PV feature in place early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I agree on what Rick and Andy said. I was looking at the teleconnections. The NAO is slightly negative, the AO is positive, and the PNA is negative. The weak Greenland block and the NAO are in a rough agreement . The storm does have one wildcard, that being the Canadian high. we will have to see how fast it moves and where it sets up....But right now I think this storm is going to be a basic no show....At least as far as being anything major....I'm waiting to see which model blinks first the GFS or the EURO....As for storms, I'm keeping my eye on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I might get a little snow Monday morning from the intiial disturbance that goes to the North . The NAM and GFS both agree on the little system passing to our north and are inline with the EURO and suppresses the 21-22 upper level system and clipper type system passing to the south.....The southern tier and CD might get a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I might get a little snow Monday morning. I see the 06Z GFS is in line with the EURO and suppresses the 21-22 upper level system and clipper type system passing to the south.....The southern tier and CD might get a little. Down this way it spits out 4". We'll see what the next few runs do. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HPC day 4/5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This storm looks to be largely a miss for ottawa, but a potential big hit for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This storm looks to be largely a miss for ottawa, but a potential big hit for Toronto. I wouldn't count out Ottawa yet with the trend this winter lol. It looks like a decent event for a good portion of upstate ny right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This storm looks to be largely a miss for ottawa, but a potential big hit for Toronto. honestly, with this nice weather, im pretty close to fast forwarding to spring, i could care less about minor or moderate snow events at this point. this winter is already a lost cause for ottawa barring a miracle, and it would take an active pattern with a couple of big events to rekindle interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 If anyone is interested, the 12z ECM is strikingly similar to the 12z CMC / 12z GFS / 18z NAM, two of which were posted above. The 12z ECM qpf looks like a general .4-.8 for the I-90 vicinity and south. As we get closer, I might post a couple hand-drawn replica's of the ECM output wrt to QPF, Temp-profiles if anyone is interested... All things considered, there is a high level of model agreement at this point with regard to temp profiles, overall track, and QPF. But we all know how our luck can change in the blink of an eye just when things look like they are set-in-stone. Thus, still need to watch this evolution closely, especially since it involves a system tracking in from the west-southwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Hpc day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 KALB A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THEUPPER MID WEST SUNDAY EVENING TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE MONDAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...SPEED AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GENERALLY EXPECT A MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FA WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOONTIME ON MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE CREATED A STORM TOTAL SNOW GRID FOR THIS EVENT WHICH IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE. HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM SLOWS AT ALL. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- KBGM THE FACT THAT THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING SFC LOW WILL HAVE ACCESS TOHIGH AMOUNTS OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX SITUATION MAY BE IN THE MAKING...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING FZRA AND PL. OBVIOUSLY SFC LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON EXPECTED P-TYPE AS A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW CWA WIDE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SFC LOW TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ICING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE TWIN TIERS AND POINTS SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...MOSTLY -SN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON COLDER TEMP PROFILES WHERE HIGH END ADVISORY SNOWFALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE IN THE WX GRIDS. DEFINITELY AN INTERESTING SITUATION THAT WARRANTS WATCHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z NAM. All snow with the exception of a portion of the W Srn Tier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 not good trends last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 nws buffalo being stubborn like always MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND AFAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE COLORADO PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION BEFORE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AT THE EXPENSE OF A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THEN WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTED BY A DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN AS WARMER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH NORTH ALOFT...WHILE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVANCES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE LOW LEVELS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF LIFT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DIFFICULT CALL ON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM BRINGING A WARM LAYER ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS COLDER. PAST HISTORY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM HAS SHOWN THAT WARM AIR SPREADS NORTH FASTER AND FARTHER THAN FORECAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO SPREAD EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY THRUWAY...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AND A CHANGE TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE TO STAY ALL SNOW WILL BE IN THE ROW OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OF COURSE THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD...CHANGING ALL THE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...OVERALL MODEL QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REALIZE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH... WHICH IS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OR SO BELOW A GFS/NAM BLEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING. THAT SAID...THERE MAY BE A BAND OF ENHANCED QPF IF MESOSCALE BANDING STRUCTURES FORM SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION SIGNAL. IF THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD PROBABLY ONLY BE ABOUT A COUNTY WIDE AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME RANGE. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THE WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN. IF PTYPE GOES TO FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY...MAY SEE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICING. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY TIGHT...MEANING THAT JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL PRODUCE A BIG CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES. OVERALL HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN BOTH DIRECTIONS ON PTYPE AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF THIS. FINALLY...ONE OTHER CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS INITIALLY...BUT IN A SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH. THIS MAY ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY SUPPORTED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY EVENING AND SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cutting it close, but 1.48" of QPF here (might actually be a bit more IMBY) with that. Totally below 0C at all levels, but, like with the last storm, these storms are not to be trusted. Someone between Cleveland and Buffalo is going to get majorly screwed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cutting it close, but 1.48" of QPF here (might actually be a bit more IMBY) with that. Totally below 0C at all levels, but, like with the last storm, these storms are not to be trusted. Someone between Cleveland and Buffalo is going to get majorly screwed though. hopefully we all cash in with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12Z NAM ..someone please post the comedy 12Z NAM snowfall estimate map. hopefully we all cash in with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I can't remember a winter where almost every major storm (except the February 2 storm) missed Ottawa. It really is incredible. Even with the blocking gone, the storms are either going south of east of us. It reeally does seem like there is a snow shield around Ottawa this year. Mind you, with the exception of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and the first half of 2008-2009, it's been like that for the past 12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.