ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I remember a month ago when the usual suspects..hey it's only October/early November I'm not worried..I hope it's nice and warm now..it'll get cold in December... well guess what..Dec is next week and the models are torching most of next week..So now we've lost November to another warm month..and December looks to be following the same path.. Terrible So then, shall we put you down as believing this will be a total trainwreck of a Winter? Will you except the withering ridicule attack when it's SN+ and you start making your patented " as WE thought.." posts. Are you on record as going against DT's winter outlook for New England? Or is this just a PMS type thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I bailed as soon as I woke up yesterday morning, and I was chastised. All I was doing was shining the light on truth. lol So take a breath and move forward. Big CAA tonight/tomorrow. Some of us might get a smattering of wintry crap on T'giving. Having that in SNE will give hope to all (though I'm not excited about the drive home along the Mohawk Trail Thursday night). I always love the snow during moon light madness here in the falls. Doesnt look like it will happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 So then, shall we put you down as believing this will be a total trainwreck of a Winter? Will you except the withering ridicule attack when it's SN+ and you start making your patented " as WE thought.." posts. Are you on record as going against DT's winter outlook for New England? Or is this just a PMS type thing? I'm pissed and I'm very worried as are the mets that post here. The Euro and GFS ensembles were awful. They blew the forecasted cold pattern. Both of them were wretched. Instead of a 2-3 week sustained period of winter..we now have 1 transient cool shot this weekend..and another week long torch next week. It is very concerning since Dec. was supposed to be our best winter month this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I remember a month ago when the usual suspects..hey it's only October/early November I'm not worried..I hope it's nice and warm now..it'll get cold in December... well guess what..Dec is next week and the models are torching most of next week..So now we've lost November to another warm month..and December looks to be following the same path.. Terrible Strong La Nina's generally aren't kind to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm pissed and I'm very worried as are the mets that post here. The Euro and GFS ensembles were awful. They blew the forecasted cold pattern. Both of them were wretched. Instead of a 2-3 week sustained period of winter..we now have 1 transient cool shot this weekend..and another week long torch next week. It is very concerning since Dec. was supposed to be our best winter month this year Well the good news is it's still fairly early and even if the first week or ten days of December aren't great something could flip around then. If were into the second week of December though and things aren't looking better than we can throw in the towel b/c it won't be getting any better after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm pissed and I'm very worried as are the mets that post here. The Euro and GFS ensembles were awful. They blew the forecasted cold pattern. Both of them were wretched. Instead of a 2-3 week sustained period of winter..we now have 1 transient cool shot this weekend..and another week long torch next week. It is very concerning since Dec. was supposed to be our best winter month this year So now you are about to jump off a bridge because the very same models that blew the cold pattern are now showing an unfavorable pattern? Did they get an upgrade and from here on out they'll be flawless? As for Dec. who exactly has the crystal ball to make that prediction? Come back from the edge dude. Everything will be just fine. I'm surprised you're making the rookie mistake of hugging the models run to run and taking each solution verbatim. step back, take a deep breath and look at the big picture. It's 11/23, very very early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well the good news is it's still fairly early and even if the first week or ten days of December aren't great something could flip around then. If were into the second week of December though and things aren't looking better than we can throw in the towel b/c it won't be getting any better after that. Paul, just a silly statement. Winter is a marathon not a sprint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Paul, just a silly statement. Winter is a marathon not a sprint. Lets hope its a long marathon. Last year was a simple morning Jog im my parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here is a list of Strong La Nina winters: 1949-1950; 1955-1956; 1970-1971; 1973-1974; 1975-1976; 1988-1989; 1998-1999; 1999-2000; 2007-2008 Below is a list of occurrences of below-average, average, and above-average snowfall: ALB: Average snowfall: 3 Below-average seasons: 4 Above-average seasons: 2 BDL: Average snowfall: 3 Below-average: 2 Above-average: 2 BOS: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 5 Above-average: 4 BTV: Average snowfall: 1 Below-average: 4 Above-average: 4 NYC: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 8 Above-average: 1 ORH: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 6 Above-average: 3 PVD: Average snowfall: 2 Below-average: 5 Above-average: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Paul, just a silly statement. Winter is a marathon not a sprint. Past history of Nina's aren't all that great for us as winter goes along, there definitely has been years which have been good though and have produced, however, I don't think this is one of them and there are also plenty of the long-term guys who think this way as well. I want as much snow as possible and an excellent winter, nobody else on here is going through a stretch like I am of horrible winters (well except the other folks that live in this area) but I'm not going to start thinking heavy snow and wish upon it just b/c I want it. When the signals look good good and favorable I'll definitely be on board. It's quite possible this could occur as we head into December so I'm not giving up hope just yet, I just think our window of opportunity is on the small side so we need to cash in sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Surprised you haven't given up yet. Even Will threw in the towel last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I always love the snow during moon light madness here in the falls. Doesnt look like it will happen this year. You mean "Moonlight Magic"? It really is nice with the snow. Where are you located that brings you out for that? I remember last year's was so cold and windy all the candles were blowing out. I wonder if any folks from God's Country will be be coming to the Falls for that: Chris? Pete? Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here is a list of Strong La Nina winters: 1949-1950; 1955-1956; 1970-1971; 1973-1974; 1975-1976; 1988-1989; 1998-1999; 1999-2000; 2007-2008 Below is a list of occurrences of below-average, average, and above-average snowfall: ALB: Average snowfall: 3 Below-average seasons: 4 Above-average seasons: 2 BDL: Average snowfall: 3 Below-average: 2 Above-average: 2 BOS: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 5 Above-average: 4 BTV: Average snowfall: 1 Below-average: 4 Above-average: 4 NYC: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 8 Above-average: 1 ORH: Average snowfall: 0 Below-average: 6 Above-average: 3 PVD: Average snowfall: 2 Below-average: 5 Above-average: 2 Exactly. We just don't know what will happen. All this torch talk about this La Nina can stop. It's exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Surprised you haven't given up yet. Even Will threw in the towel last nite He didn't throw it in on the winter--just the pattern change in early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Exactly. We just don't know what will happen. All this torch talk about this La Nina can stop. It's exhausting. Yeah the signal is much less weak the further northward you go, the ENSO signal in all really isn't the major player here in SNE/NNE but it does help in a way to shape things up. We are lucky enough to where we live far enough northward to where it isn't the ultimate factor. One another thing is the temps talk...temps really have no correlation to our snowfall, or at least not a major one. Unless were absolutely torching (like +6 or something for an entire period) then things are different but for the most part we can be above-average temp wise and still get snowfall. As long as the pattern remains active and we get plenty of storms to track we will get our snowfall, were just probably going to see lots of SWFE which is common during Nina's so were just going to have to deal with changeovers and such. As long as we can get some cold to start building up over Canada over the next few weeks when the NAO does go negative this help help to push some of the cold air into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This is a really horrible pattern going forward. I'm very concerned if I don't see a 12" storm by mid month. I'm afraid of the implications it will have for the next 16 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If I also recall there were some folks who said it would be more like from mid-December through mid-January where we will see things the most favorable for us. Just b/c things don't look great the first few days or even first week of the month doesn't mean it will fail. Patterns can change mid month and it can happen quite suddenly as well, especially with the situation we have here, get that NAO to setup in the right spot and boom, it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Surprised you haven't given up yet. Even Will threw in the towel last nite Given up on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 He didn't throw it in on the winter--just the pattern change in early Dec. That's what i meant. On the intitial pattern change over the next 2 weeks. Hopefully after that we can get cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah the signal is much less weak the further northward you go, the ENSO signal in all really isn't the major player here in SNE/NNE but it does help in a way to shape things up. We are lucky enough to where we live far enough northward to where it isn't the ultimate factor. One another thing is the temps talk...temps really have no correlation to our snowfall, or at least not a major one. Unless were absolutely torching (like +6 or something for an entire period) then things are different but for the most part we can be above-average temp wise and still get snowfall. As long as the pattern remains active and we get plenty of storms to track we will get our snowfall, were just probably going to see lots of SWFE which is common during Nina's so were just going to have to deal with changeovers and such. As long as we can get some cold to start building up over Canada over the next few weeks when the NAO does go negative this help help to push some of the cold air into our area. I agree with the temp statement when you're looking at average temps. But that's an over simplified statement. When we're looking at temps within any given system, we have to be very concerned about the temps due to storm track (some of us more than others). Needless to say, we can't keep an inland storm track and hope to end with big snows. The average temp being a not-so-important issue for many is when we're looking at SWFE and coastals. I can't speak for others, but my biggest frustration with the way things have played out in both the the models and actual occurances is the insistance of running systems west of the apps. That can be good for front end/back end, but some screwing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree with the temp statement when you're looking at average temps. But that's an over simplified statement. When we're looking at temps within any given system, we have to be very concerned about the temps due to storm track (some of us more than others). Needless to say, we can't keep an inland storm track and hope to end with big snows. The average temp being a not-so-important issue for many is when we're looking at SWFE and coastals. I can't speak for others, but my biggest frustration with the way things have played out in both the the models and actual occurances is the insistance of running systems west of the apps. That can be good for front end/back end, but some screwing in between. I see what you mean with the temps just prior to the onset of a storm and how the pattern looks but chances are up at this latitude if temps are in the below-average range prior to the storm the jet is in a good position and the track should be a kind one...unless of course you have a pattern change occurring just about the same time with probably more of a trough working into the west/central US forcing the heights to rise in the east. Well with the way things are playing out in the models with the lake cutters is not really something that should be surprising to us, that is usually what occurs in Nina winters, especially when the SE ridge is in tact and controlling things here in the east. This is why we want to get a nice negative east-based NAO block to setup as this can help to force the SE ridge to at least break down a bit which could help to force a track more towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Like reading a tabloid in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 45 mostly sunny should be a fantastic first half of the day, with blue skies light west winds and temps soaring into the mid to upper 60's, time to hit the links, looks like golf maybe in the cards well into met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 45 mostly sunny should be a fantastic first half of the day, with blue skies light west winds and temps soaring into the mid to upper 60's, time to hit the links, looks like golf maybe in the cards well into met winter I'll be getting 9 in later. The greens are very slow since they've stopped mowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'll be getting 9 in later. The greens are very slow since they've stopped mowing. Nice! Play well, enjoy this wonderful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm in from the office :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm in from the office :o Nice! keyboard FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm in Scott from the behind :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I put it in your orifice :o ugh. congrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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