West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My first call: I do not like big storms that head for Lk. Erie..........No, I do not like it Sam I am............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IMO ...GFL looks golden for the big big snows..... I do not like big storms that head for Lk. Erie..........No, I do not like it Sam I am............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IMO ...GFL looks golden for the big big snows..... Yeah, unfortunately it's Saturday not Tuesday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Like that guy in the Berks keeps honking.....................Big Big winter incoming........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, unfortunately it's Saturday not Tuesday yet. Oops........Should have put this in the upstate whine thread.....Sorry ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Like that guy in the Berks keeps honking.....................Big Big winter incoming........................ lol we would be looking at some nice snow depths if any of these solutions happen to be correct. its probably not a good thing to be in the bullseye 3 or 4 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm more intrigued at the 12z GFS showing it -33 at GFL on friday morning which would be the all time record ever Fri 02/04 09Z -32 ° -31 ° -33 ° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quick thoughts on this upcoming system... As of now a hybrid psuedo-SWFE/Miller B scenario? Two rounds of precip for NYS one with primary. Round #2 with redevelopment (more of a threat for areas E of I81) These are just "initial" thoughts and are subject to change once I take a closer look at data later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's starting to look a bit better for Ottawa? Dare I hope for one of the best winter weeks in years (bitter cold, followed by 4-6"+ of snow) followed by bitter cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quick thoughts on this upcoming system... As of now a hybrid psuedo-SWFE/Miller B scenario? Two rounds of precip for NYS one with primary. Round #2 with redevelopment (more of a threat for areas E of I81) These are just "initial" thoughts and are subject to change once I take a closer look at data later today. 2 rounds or 1 dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Like that guy in the Berks keeps honking.....................Big Big winter incoming........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's starting to look a bit better for Ottawa? Dare I hope for one of the best winter weeks in years (bitter cold, followed by 4-6"+ of snow) followed by bitter cold? how much snow did you get overnight-today? parents said they had a few inches in south ottawa. looks like a wicked band crossed the city a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm more intrigued at the 12z GFS showing it -33 at GFL on friday morning which would be the all time record ever Fri 02/04 09Z -32 ° -31 ° -33 ° I'm not 100% sure but the ALL time record at the AP I think is -34? We're both wrong: GLENS FALLS AP (303294) Extremes Lowest Daily Minimum Temperature (degrees F) Days: 1/1 - 12/31 Length of period: 1 day Years: 1944-2011 Rank Value Ending Date 1 -35.0 1/27/1994 2 -34.0 1/16/1994 3 -33.0 1/12/1968, 1/11/1968, 1/8/1968 6 -32.0 1/23/1976 7 -31.0 1/4/1981 8 -30.0 1/24/2011, 1/6/1996, 2/10/1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC... ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...UPPER TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: UKMET THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH OF ITS ACTUAL CENTER. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTION WHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVE POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...AND GIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLE INITIALIZATION...HAS THE EARLY LEAD REGARDING PREFERENCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGem went further SE but its a good track for upstate ny http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGem went further SE but its a good track for upstate ny http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html GGEM is off on its own island. doesnt amplify the southern s/w . i would heavily lean away from it at this time given the UK/NAM/ and the 12z GFS making a big step towards the the NAM/00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not 100% sure but the ALL time record at the AP I think is -34? We're both wrong: GLENS FALLS AP (303294) Extremes Lowest Daily Minimum Temperature (degrees F) Days: 1/1 - 12/31 Length of period: 1 day Years: 1944-2011 Rank Value Ending Date 1 -35.0 1/27/1994 2 -34.0 1/16/1994 3 -33.0 1/12/1968, 1/11/1968, 1/8/1968 6 -32.0 1/23/1976 7 -31.0 1/4/1981 8 -30.0 1/24/2011, 1/6/1996, 2/10/1994 Wow! I remember looking it up several yrs ago when I first moved up here and -32 stuck in my head ............Just a Feb all time low then............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow! I remember looking it up several yrs ago when I first moved up here and -32 stuck in my head ............Just a Feb all time low then............. 1994 was brutal in both terms of cold and very system from Mid Jan on through the beginning of Mar was all snow or just a few snow/mix (IP or ZR) systems.There were more than a few 12" + storms that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs cobb/bufkit warehouse shows 19" of snow for kUCA..It even has temps down to -36 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs cobb/bufkit warehouse shows 19" of snow for kUCA..It even has temps down to -36 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like the euro is pretty much the same, maybe a hair south... ggem is on its own with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z EC is north of the GFS again. at 102 hours the low is over central PA with the 0 C line just south of I-90 with the heaviest precip across all of northern NY and southern Quebec. Basically all of NYS is over 1" of precip for the event total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hope my 2 miles north of i-90 helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone with access to the Euro know if it mixes at all between frames at KJHW? 96 looks like it's cutting it very close. BUF is probably all snow at that time. I'll just sit here in the corner and hug the GFS ensembles and GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro trimmed back on precip and is a bit south of previous 00z run. right now most of NYS takes the brunt in as ENYsnow posted cutback on areas right along the border in NNY similar to yesterdays 12z run.....0.75-1.00 ottawa-montreal 0.5-0.6 with the 0.75 line just south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't wanna distract ya'll from what is going to blitz us this week, but there is more on the menu for next weekend if the latest runs of the ECM / CMC / DGEX have anything to say about it. Could be a rinse-lather-repeat scenario for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 from my standpoint, i dont like these patterns at all to produce up here in eastern ontario and southern quebec. BZ runners at this time of year, using climo are not good for us. if anything i would expect this to tick back south more than anything. the only positive trend i can see on todays models are that they are stronger at the UL features, that could help. honestly we are going to need all the help we can get,.....all we need is about 20 miles.....doesnt sound like much but ive seen that movie before in late jan/early feb....thats the price you pay for living in the cold factory at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JMA Total qpf is pretty much 1-1.5 for most of the state.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't wanna distract ya'll from what is going to blitz us this week, but there is more on the menu for next weekend if the latest runs of the ECM / CMC / DGEX have anything to say about it. Could be a rinse-lather-repeat scenario for us... wow i just saw that thanks for alerting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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