ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 now if we could somehow move that heavy precip lil bit north to our Ottawa friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GOOD LORD! Ny state might actaully be in the bullyeye for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I found this on another forum but u can see there is decent model agreement ATM...Also hpc day4-5qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUEONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We need the " wizard " to chime in. That wizard would be Andy. I am hoping for this storm, with that said, I am Leary to think this is a hit until Andy has called it a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 According to the CIPS winter weather analog guidance, the number 1 fit at the moment would be 2/13/07 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL edit i just realize what storm that was, im not liking that analog.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm going to print this, frame it, and hang it in my family room right next to the pictures of my children. GOOD LORD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 just to add a bit more to the euro qpf which was already posted... 00z euro qpf bumped north a bit, thats why you are seeing more mixing in the southern tier.....and a bump up in qpf for the regions right along the international border to about 1.00 also qpf for ottawa and montreal bumped up to around 0.7-0.8 the bullseye looked to be around just SE of lake ontario towards KSYR, a little blip of 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as far as the storm 'missing' goes..........i think by tonights 00z models you can really increasing confidence, and then by 12z tomorrow it will begin to lock that it wont miss at least a portion of the region.... .at that point energy interaction will be occurring onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty incredible how Toronto could get an epic storm while Ottawa and Montreal completely miss out. Almost like early February 2008. i remember that storm in feb 2008....we missed that heavy snow by only 20 km or so. imagine if it had hit.....the records would have been broken! anyways, we are still in the game for this one, but we are also more than anyone else riding the fence. pattern recognition says that a little blip in the way the energy interacts out west, will easily take us out of the game. climo regarding the track and pattern doesnt favor us either for the heavy snow. its obviously going to take something special to break a 2 yr streak.......its going to take everything its got to move that PV enough out of the way....but as per what the models show at least, this *could* be a special storm. of course that could all change by next runs ....but as of right now, *we have a chance* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 btw, the baroclinic zone setting up in the center of the country could end up being one for the books. i can only imagine what would happen if ALL that energy in the west came out at once.....Superbomb comes to mind. as it is, there will likely be some ridiculous dynamics in places like TX/OK/MO and other states when this thing gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as far as the storm 'missing' goes..........i think by tonights 00z models you can really increasing confidence, and then by 12z tomorrow it will begin to lock that it wont miss at least a portion of the region.... .at that point energy interaction will be occurring onshore I would be surprised if it was a complete miss.All the models have been trending " our " way........I just am real jittery to think with the blocking that has been here all year and as strong as some storms have been that the pv is going to relax enough to get this storm north enough or that the storm is strong enough to get past it. Is the ridging west strong enough to support this ?TG also talked about this in an earlier post. I am hoping, just cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM still showing some light-mod snow at hr 72 while the LP is in TX ..Im not sure why tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol we get get like 4-8" on the nam before the storm even heads this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would be surprised if it was a complete miss.All the models have been trending " our " way........I just am real jittery to think with the blocking that has been here all year and as strong as some storms have been that the pv is going to relax enough to get this storm north enough or that the storm is strong enough to get past it. Is the ridging west strong enough to support this ?TG also talked about this in an earlier post. I am hoping, just cautious. it does support it but in fact this 'winter' storm pattern (if the energy comes together as is modeled currently) isnt really anything like we've seen since janaury of 2009, this isnt like the storms we've seen miss us to our S and E. the trough position is waaaay west, and if it wasnt for the polar vortex, this thing would easily cut west and all of us would rain and we'd melt. so in many ways, we should all be very thankful that the PV is there to protect us here in the NE. now we just need to strike the right balance between energy strength and polar vortex strength....a risky proposition of course. at this range, lots could still change ,including the energy crapping out and passing weakly south of us.....but that would be a huge turnaround on the models at this point, but i guess you can never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12 NAM hr 72 and 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM still showing some light-mod snow at hr 72 while the LP is in TX ..Im not sure why tho.. Yeah thats a real nice appetizer looks like its from isentropic lift. but the nam might be a little warm for round 2 with the 0 C 850 line at the NY/PA border to CT/MA border. Either way thats one heck of a baroclinic zone setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM still showing some light-mod snow at hr 72 while the LP is in TX ..Im not sure why tho.. Little boundary stalled to our south with weak WAA to the north of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah thats a real nice appetizer looks like its from isentropic lift. but the nam might be a little warm for round 2 with the 0 C 850 line at the NY/PA border to CT/MA border. Either way thats one heck of a baroclinic zone setting up. The nam can be to amped at times in the longrange..The euor/nogaps and gfs all seem to go north and then cut east saving us for the most part..I wouldn't be surprised if the nam did that also..It will prob be a little less amped as the weekend goes on, it will fit in nice with the ecm/gfs and all other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT keeps KJHW all snow, but barely. Still about 6", though. It's the main show that I think we may not survive if the 12z NAM were to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nam shows almost 7" for kuca and 10" for kbgm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12 Z gfs also has over running precip but not as heavy as the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another real nice hit ...goes towards the lakes and then cuts east through SPA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My first call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My first call: I'm sure most of us in upstate NY will agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A coupla things I see... Cold air looks to be dependent on how the PV/northern stream interacts... will it be a bit quicker than currently indicated? Also, one must watch the snow growth layer...when you get in the 600-500mb range you start to lose good snow growth... around BGM that generally equates to 10:1 ratio from my experience... I can't wait to see the 12z runs tomorrow when the main culprit moves onshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I heard the ggem has come in further SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If i'm not mistaken, one of the nam biases is to dig trofs/bring cold air too far south... i'd stick with a gfs euro blend... seems to have worked pretty well so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It was kinda cryptic...not sure what he means. I'm sure most of us in upstate NY will agree But I certainly approve of the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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