Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z Euro is almost identical to 12z but it looks like the precip shield extends a bit further north... 0 C line still south of the thruway. Good news for me perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i didnt like the sound of this from the accuweather forum 90hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP along the NY/PA border unless that where its always been lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i didnt like the sound of this from the accuweather forum unless that where its always been lol It also pops a secondary just south of long island at that time as the 850 temps crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good news for me perhaps? yea looks around .75 for you at a quick glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 yea looks around .75 for you at a quick glance Just for the sake of model comparison and when you get a chance, you mind totaling up the QPF or providing a QPF range for some of our locals around Upstate like BUF-SYR-BGM-ALY etc? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah I just had a look at the run on E-wall. Between the O-R and main event combined, it looks like everyone is over an inch of QPF and all snow, with highest amounts along / S of I-90. Biggest winner looks like the CD with over 1.50". where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic! Capital district and colonie is right next to albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just for the sake of model comparison and when you get a chance, you mind totaling up the QPF or providing a QPF range for some of our locals around Upstate like BUF-SYR-BGM-ALY etc? TIA. BUF around 1.25 SYR 1 - 1.15 BGM 1 ALY around 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic! First, welcome to our Upstate discussion board! The regulars here often refer to the Capital District of NY as the "C.D." Colonie is pretty much a northern suberb of Albany. Believe me when I say all of us north / west of Albany share your frustration as far as lack of synoptic snowfall goes for the Upstate region, especially our friends near the International Border that reside outside the lake snow belts. Barring an epic model collapse, I think many... if not all of us are going to walk away with our pockets lined after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM ftw lol.. from the new england thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM ftw lol.. from the new england thread I'm to this model til it dies haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the ggem was a little wetter u would get my avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM ftw lol.. from the new england thread I'm to this model til it dies haha and... AND... the 850 0c line remains south of the N Tier of PA with the CMC, which is generally a good demarcation of the snow / mix line. I find it interesting that the CMC is one of the colder solutions yet it's thermal profiles are often regarded as being suspect and often too warm. I tend to think it's more southern track is the primary culprit behind this versus catching onto a colder solution overall, but something to keep in the back of the mind going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The over running precip will have good ratios, so the more precip we get from that the better..The primary storm will prob be like 10-1 ratios....Albany proper's climo ratios are 13-1 and the NWS calling for higher then normal.. AND COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 and... AND... the 850 0c line remains south of the N Tier of PA with the CMC, which is generally a good demarcation of the snow / mix line. I find it interesting that the CMC is one of the colder solutions yet it's thermal profiles are often regarded as being suspect and often too warm. I tend to think it's more southern track is the primary culprit behind this versus catching onto a colder solution overall, but something to keep in the back of the mind going forward. maybe the CMC and NOGAPS are onto something usually we can just look at the Euro but after the way it handled the last storm I wouldn't be so trusting. I could see it coming down to the final 12-18 hours before we have a confident idea of where the snow/sleet line sets up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 PREFERENCE: 18Z-00Z GEFS MEANS... OR AN AVERAGE OFGFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACKS WITH DEPTH SIMILAR TO THE GFS/ECMWF BY TUE-WED THE NAM BECOMES THE MOST EXTREME AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS WITH THE SEWD AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL TROF. THE NAM ALSO LEANS TO THE DEEP EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LVL SYSTEM DURING TUE-WED. CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRAITS ALOFT THE NAM HAS ONE OF THE DEEPEST SFC LOW SOLNS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE GFS SOLN ALSO HAS SOME QUESTION MARKS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF THE MID LVL SHRTWV VERSUS CONSENSUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. UPSTREAM PREFERENCE THAT LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS ADDS FURTHER DOUBT TO THE PRECISE GFS SOLN. THE 12Z ECMWF COMPARES A LITTLE BETTER TO THE FULL RANGE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT BUT THE SFC LOW LEANS TO THE NWRN/NWRN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AROUND F72-78 LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED FAVORABLY TOWARD CONSENSUS. THE UKMET SFC LOW IS DEEPEST AMONG NON-NAM GUIDANCE BUT THE TRACK IS WITHIN THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. LIKELY DUE TO A DEEPER WRN SOLN THE 12Z-00Z CMC RUNS WEAKEN THE EJECTING SHRTWV MORE THAN OTHER SOLNS TO YIELD AN OUTLIER SERN SFC LOW TRACK. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN INCLUDED... THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ON AVERAGE PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SO THEIR FCSTS ARE GIVEN FIRST PREFERENCE. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACKS WITH DEPTH SIMILAR TO THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD ALSO PROVIDE AN ACCEPTABLE FCST http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Because the Aviation section is the 1st to get updated, you can often get an inside sneak-peek at the updated forecast before the updated ZFP's hit the street and the remaining sections of the AFD are updated. Although the BGM update isn't exactly encouraging, I think it's a safe call from this distance... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 425 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NE PA. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1239 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KBGM/KELM/KITH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thats a nice looking map 00z EC ensembles were colder than the OP according to the new england thread so thats good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam did back of on the overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks a little more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks colder MSLP is a whopping 8mb weaker this run which leads to a colder solution as the system is less wound up. 0z / H84 was 992mb compared to 1000mb on 6z / H78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nws says they will call for a wintry mix from i-90 south yet there forecast has me all snow.. .A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURINGTHE MID WEEK PERIOD... OUR POTENT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WAVE WAS COMING ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ARE INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ALL OF THESE FEATURES SPELL AN INCREASE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. THE FIRST PIECE OF THIS STORM...IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION...ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ENCASE THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES...WHILE THEY DO WARM...REMAIN BELOW 0C TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIX. THE GARCIA TECHNIQUE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2-3 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON THE THETA SURFACE...SUGGEST A 4-6 INCH SNOWFALL BY SUNSET TUESDAY. SURE SOME MESOSCALE IMPACTS SUCH AS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE BERKS MAY BE SLIGHT HIGHER WITH A BIT LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE DACKS /AS LEAST PER WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EVENTUALLY SETS UP/. THIS WOULD LEAD TOWARD AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A QUICK RESPITE OCCURS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SHOW ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL SPAWN A NEW SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWNSTREAM...IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH PRECIP QUICKLY RETURNING BACK TO THE CWA. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE DEGREE TO WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO FORECASTING THE THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES. GEFS PLUME MEMBERS FOR ALBANY NY ALL AGREE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT...WITH SEVERAL PTYPE MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WHICH PLACES A WINTRY MIXTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. UTILIZING PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF...WE WILL PLACE THE WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY HEAVY SNOW WITH A HIGHER WATER CONTENT. QPF FROM THE VARIOUS SOURCES AND HPC ALL SUGGEST BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND STRONGLY WORD THIS WINTER EVENT WITHIN THE HWO. AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEADLINES TO APPEAR SOON...STAY TUNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i guess they mean i-90 by albany..They have a mix of snow/sleet on wed there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nws says they will call for a wintry mix from i-90 south yet there forecast has me all snow.. I tend to think they are placing more emphasis on the eastern end of I-90 in the ALY cwa. Using that demarcation can be a little more misleading in their area because I-90 arcs northwest-southeast in E NY as opposed to more west-east in W / C NY. Truth be told, I would be 'shocked' if NC NY sees anything other than snow with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Both KBGM and KALB going with 4-6 with the 1st wave of precip which is a nice little event before the big system arrives.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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