Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OL, is bitter cold still forecast to move in behind the storm? Unless I'm reading it wrong, the GFS seems to think no. no bitter cold following the storm looks seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At least the Euro brings back the day 6 coastal storm. it looks real nice for all of us again. haha. yeah just saw that, wasnt expecing that at all! CMC has it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Starting to look at 12z data in earnest... Also I am concerned that mix may get farther north then some are thinking...i.e., up to GFL. What chu talking bout Willis ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i agree with the general thought that our region could get stuck in the middle, including places like toronto. some models now hinting at very rapid occlusion in the MW....and then a quick shift east, the euro too has that general signal. along with possible mixing concerns and a sharp northerly cutoff, i would stay conservative on snow totals across the entire area until a better idea of that is nailed down euro 12z qpf generally about 1.00-1.25 for all of NYS except slightly higher amounts around the lower HV approx 0.75 for ottawa and montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Geeze....so my worries about IP issues up to SYR are unwarranted with this map!!! Go Henry!!!! I know we all (including myself) like to criticize Henry but man I like that snow map. I'm hoping he is right. Amazing the difference in tone on the different forums. On the acuweather forums (Canada) they are really hyped about this storm, and are analyzing and posting maps from the model runs, as well as the accumulation maps. Here we all seem more subdued although I admit that there are a lot of pro mets here (which is good! ). I in no way mean that as a critcism to the people on the accuweather boards (just in case an are reading this post!). I'm going to go with 6-8" in Ottawa while hoping for 10-12" (realistically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 no bitter cold following the storm looks seasonable. I think the GFS will be wrong the confluent flow in the wake of the storm to me screams shallow but intense arctic air incursion. GFS usually blows chunks on arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know we all (including myself) like to criticize Henry but man I like that snow map. I'm hoping he is right. Amazing the difference in tone on the different forums. On the acuweather forums (Canada) they are really hyped about this storm, and are analyzing and posting maps from the model runs, as well as the accumulation maps. Here we all seem more subdued although I admit that there are a lot of pro mets here (which is good! ). I in no way mean that as a critcism to the people on the accuweather boards (just in case an are reading this post!). I'm going to go with 6-8" in Ottawa while hoping for 10-12" (realistically). well ive never been to accuweather but ive heard they are the kings of hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Updated ZFP for Onondaga Co... ONONDAGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYRACUSE 115 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS NEAR 15. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=BGM&issuedby=BGM&product=ZFP&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i agree with the general thought that our region could get stuck in the middle, including places like toronto. some models now hinting at very rapid occlusion in the MW....and then a quick shift east, the euro too has that general signal. along with possible mixing concerns and a sharp northerly cutoff, i would stay conservative on snow totals across the entire area until a better idea of that is nailed down generally about 1.00-1.25 for all of NYS except slightly higher amounts around the approx 0.75 for ottawa and montreal OL, go to the accuweather Canada forum to browse. They are all hyped about this storm! You'll even see some posts made by me! http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25054&pid=1276195&st=900entry1276195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My first call (the picture) was tongue in cheek just meant give the whiners a charge. As Logan posted it was cryptic? Was I thinking we would get screwed positively (a storm) or a miss. As I also posted yesterday (and mentioned last week to Tornado Girl in a PM) There will be two shots to the event. More later. I figured you were up to something ....that pic was hysterical though..... I read the "two shots to the next storm".............Miss or dryslot........LMAO...that was funny too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the GFS will be wrong the confluent flow in the wake of the storm to me screams shallow but intense arctic air incursion. GFS usually blows chunks on arctic air. Ottawa Blizzard will be happy to hear that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ottawa Blizzard will be happy to hear that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What chu talking bout Willis ? The beatings will continue until it's all snow!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha, we'll get a good one before the winter's out (I hope!), even if this one is looking a bit too warm for us (for major snows). The beatings will continue until it's all snow!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ...THE NEW ECMWF HASTRENDED SLOWER ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE OH VALLEY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION. THUS...EARLIER PREFERENCES REMAIN INTACT...WITH AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED DAYS 1/2...BEFORE ABANDONING THE ECMWF IN FAVOR A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR DAY 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 As a sidenote, NWS headline selection could present a bit of a gray issue seeing as how this is a 1-2 punch type deal. There looks to be enough of a lull in the precip Tuesday Evening to allow for duel headlines where applicable (Advisory-level over-running snow followed by Watch / Warning event Tuesday night - Wednesday) or I could potentially see this being termed a long-duration Watch / Warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The beatings will continue until it's all snow!!!!!!! They are rare but having a cut and dry system would be oh so nice. I hate having to worry about snow accums prior to transitions, or will we see banding and where, etc. etc. Then there's TG lamenting the fact that LES isn't huge this year, especially since she thought it would be. Oh, well the vagaries of wx and wx forecasting. This sub-forum really needs to have a GTG. I nominate Rick/Logan to be the organizer to set one up at a mutually "agreeable" location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The gfs gives me 1.5" of precip, i would be happy if 1" of that was in the form of snow..Maybe im too optimistic who knws lol Hpc likes the gfs/nam starting 0z wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As a sidenote, NWS headline selection could present a bit of a gray issue seeing as how this is a 1-2 punch type deal. There looks to be enough of a lull in the precip Tuesday Evening to allow for duel headlines where applicable (Advisory-level over-running snow followed by Watch / Warning event Tuesday night - Wednesday) or I could potentially see this being termed a long-duration Watch / Warning event. i would just go with a single headline....but i know there are criteria to be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha, we'll get a good one before the winter's out (I hope!), even if this one is looking a bit too warm for us (for major snows). I am really suprised to find there could be mixing issues with this next storm, at least in the GFL area.It has been the norm this winter with synoptic storms. Have the coastal storms that have been hammering the south of upstate been all snow? What a difference the wind can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Outside of the Cape and Islands in SE New England, I think they have been mostly/all snow throughout downstate and SNE. I am really suprised to find there could be mixing issues with this next storm, at least in the GFL area.It has been the norm this winter with synoptic storms. Have the coastal storms that have been hammering the south of upstate been all snow? What a difference the wind can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 welcome to the board Thanks....was a little reluctant to join since apart from asking questions or giving obs, I can't be of much use haha Anyhow, just looking at the models, it seems this thing is looking good for us....I honestly don't care for an apocalyptic storm....just so long as we are a part of it! Though, as per your previous posts here, you seem to have reservations about it...after seeing the new models, you still have them or are they slowly fading? On a side note, how accurate are qpf estimates, relative to the track? By definition, they are "probabilistic", so I assume that they become more accurate as the event in question draws near and uncertainties get resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Outside of the Cape and Islands in SE New England, I think they have been mostly/all snow throughout downstate and SNE. We're either too far north or too far south for the best snows this year.. fringe city. if NYC was in the position we're in it would certainly trend favorably for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks....was a little reluctant to join since apart from asking questions or giving obs, I can't be of much use haha Anyhow, just looking at the models, it seems this thing is looking good for us....I honestly don't care for an apocalyptic storm....just so long as we are a part of it! Though, as per your previous posts here, you seem to have reservations about it...after seeing the new models, you still have them or are they slowly fading? On a side note, how accurate are qpf estimates, relative to the track? By definition, they are "probabilistic", so I assume that they become more accurate as the event in question draws near and uncertainties get resolved. Agree completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks....was a little reluctant to join since apart from asking questions or giving obs, I can't be of much use haha Anyhow, just looking at the models, it seems this thing is looking good for us....I honestly don't care for an apocalyptic storm....just so long as we are a part of it! Though, as per your previous posts here, you seem to have reservations about it...after seeing the new models, you still have them or are they slowly fading? On a side note, how accurate are qpf estimates, relative to the track? By definition, they are "probabilistic", so I assume that they become more accurate as the event in question draws near and uncertainties get resolved. thats exactly my attitude....i think in this forum we all know what snow looks like and we can all look out the window and see snow....the attitude is very different in here. as for my reservations, i mentioned yesterday that by 12z today (passed now), i would be confident for NYS. you can see now there is no chance this storm misses them now barring total model failure. for us, since we are on the fence (literally!) between 10 inches and 1-2 inches, there is no way we should not be reserved until 12z tomorrow. we have all seen the model shift, and all it would take is a 50 mile SE shift and we are looking at flurries. with a PV hanging out in our backyards, that very doable.....and overall, 50 miles is nothing at 3.5 days lead time. as much as the euro has been doing its best to get us into the good stuff the last several runs, its had a NW bias with qpf this season, which we should be wary of. but yeah, i do look at trends, and the trends are good, but new trends such as a more rapid occlusion of the storm in the MW are appearing. how will that play out for qpf? im neither optimistic or pessimistic at this time. by 12z tomorrow, at our northern lattitudes we should have a better idea of potential impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z nam is comming in real cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I see the 18Z NAM has shown some respect for the power of the PV..... Interesting how the PV slides down the east coast of Labrador.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z nam is comming in real cold 6C colder at 850mb here. About an inch of QPF. A fun two days ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM total QPF for Over-running + Main Event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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