weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Discussion: The string of active winter weather continues as yet another significant to major winter storm is set to barrel down on New England with the potential to produce as much as 6'' to perhaps 15''+ depending on where you are located. Unlike some of the past storms we've seen this winter where once were were inside the 36-42 HR mark things were pretty much clear, this case is a bit different, there is still some uncertainty as to how close to the coast the storm will end up tracking and this will play a major role in snowfall totals across the region, especially where the highest totals cut off. This storm is expected to have a rather significant snowfall gradient, where a span of like 30-50 miles could mean the difference in 5-8''+ of snowfall. An intense area of low pressure has been developing across the southeast the past few days, and in fact could produce some significant severe weather across parts of FL today with damaging winds and tornadoes. As this storm works off the coast it will continue to rapidly intensify and go through rapid cyclogenesis. At the same time there is some energy located across portions of the northern Plains and the Great Lakes region, it is very possible this northern stream energy phases with the developing coastal storm, this is looking possible and if it does indeed occur we are looking at a very intense snowstorm for much of the region. However, the ultimate track of the storm will decide how much potential snow we see. Even within 36 HR's of the onset of snow there is still some inconsistencies within some of the forecast models as to where exactly the storm will track, however, there seems to be some sort of consensus that the storm will track right around the 40/70 benchmark (40N/70W). This track is usually favorable for much of our region. One thing that is pretty much certain is that NE MA (away from the Cape) should get hit very hard by this, in fact, this area may come in with the highest snowfall totals from this system, unlike the past few where the highest totals have occurred across western CT. The only questions are how much snow falls across locations to the west...this, once again is going to be based on where the storm tracks. The toughest part of this forecast is there seems to be quite a difference between the American forecast models and the foreign forecast models, normally you'd go with the foreign forecast models as some of them are much better than the American forecast models, however, we have seen the American models, to an extent perform quite well with some of the storms, and the American models sort of are on the eastward side of the solutions. There also may be issues with regards to precip as some locations may briefly change over to a period of sleet, which could also tamper snowfall totals. All in all it may be best to take a consensus of the two in order to try and compose as accurate of a forecast as possible. Forecast: Snowfall should break out across the region anywhere between 1:00 and 5:00 PM and steadily become heavier as the evening goes on, the heaviest of the snowfall should occur between midnight and 9:00 AM...it is during this period when the majority of the accumulations look to occur. During this period snowfall will be extremely heavy at times, we could be looking at snowfall rates of 2-3'' per hour...perhaps even as high as 4'' per hour. The snow should also be fairly wet and heavy as temperatures are going to warm a bit throughout this event, this will make it very difficult to move and means it may stick to tree limbs and power lines. We are also looking at the potential for gusty winds as well, possibly as high as 35-45 mph, this could create the potential for tree damage as well as widespread power outages. The snow should begin to taper off by 8:00 AM - 1:00 PM across the region, with areas in the southwest ending sooner. The next update will be done by 12:30 AM tonight...still some questions to resolve, especially regarding track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Map Overview: There will be significant snowfall overspreading SNE and CNE during the late afternoon Wednesday and picking up in intensity by late evening and into the overnight hours. Sleet and rain may mix in for a time over southern CT from New Haven east, southern RI, and interior SE Mass, limiting accumulations there. From Plymouth, Ma through Cape Cod and the islands, there could be a change to sleet and rain, limiting accumulations even further there. Snowfall maxes will be in northeastern CT, northwestern RI, and the Worcester hills of MA with local maxes up to 20". Snowfall amounts will drop off quickly as one heads northwest into the Berkshires and Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see lollis to 15ish, but I want to see the more wound up solutions similar to the 00z Euro before I bump up accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see lollis to 15ish, but I want to see the more wound up solutions similar to the 00z Euro before I bump up accums. Love the look of that, although I wish I had more coming my way... Wiz, yours is straight outa Kev's playbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Map Overview: There will be significant snowfall overspreading SNE and CNE during the late afternoon Wednesday and picking up in intensity by late evening and into the overnight hours. Sleet and rain may mix in for a time over southern CT from New Haven east, southern RI, and interior SE Mass, limiting accumulations there. From Plymouth, Ma through Cape Cod and the islands, there could be a change to sleet and rain, limiting accumulations even further there. Snowfall maxes will be in northeastern CT, northwestern RI, and the Worcester hills of MA with local maxes up to 20". Snowfall amounts will drop off quickly as one heads northwest into the Berkshires and Vermont. Similar to how I think. Wish I was in the heavy heavy band, but will happily take 4-8" Nicely done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Love the look of that, although I wish I had more coming my way... Wiz, yours is straight outa Kev's playbook I was thinking probably 12:1 or 13:1 ratios for most of the area and went with QPF around the Euro but a little bit less so that's where I got the totals I did...plus given the lift associated with this I think we could see 3-4''/HR rates for at least a few hours, especially in the jackpot zone I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Similar to how I think. Wish I was in the heavy heavy band, but will happily take 4-8" Nicely done thanks, bud. Yeah being up in VT i have a neutral feeling so i feel like my forecasting will be that much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Map Overview: There will be significant snowfall overspreading SNE and CNE during the late afternoon Wednesday and picking up in intensity by late evening and into the overnight hours. Sleet and rain may mix in for a time over southern CT from New Haven east, southern RI, and interior SE Mass, limiting accumulations there. From Plymouth, Ma through Cape Cod and the islands, there could be a change to sleet and rain, limiting accumulations even further there. Snowfall maxes will be in northeastern CT, northwestern RI, and the Worcester hills of MA with local maxes up to 20". Snowfall amounts will drop off quickly as one heads northwest into the Berkshires and Vermont. Exactly where I would have my totals..except higher amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly where I would have my totals..except higher amts going conservative 10:1 or 11:1 ratios for now til all guidance lines up with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowfall amounts for the State Of The Union Storm as follows: BDR 10 BDL 9 MRG 11 HVN 11 GON 8 MT MOOSUP 11 TOLL 13 KDARTH 11 KGAY 11 BOS 12 PVD 11 TAN 12 OKX 11 PHILDEETHRILL 10 ACK 7 DOMSOX 7 COASTAL MAINE 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My full thoughts http://bit.ly/i43o0g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My full thoughts http://bit.ly/i43o0g Looks reasonable Jackpot near Bob-ETaunt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks reasonable Jackpot near Bob-ETaunt? Yup--anywhere in the Foxborough-PVD-TAN corridor. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup--anywhere in the Foxborough-PVD-TAN corridor. Thanks! Nice map dude! Looks like snow day #4 on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nice map dude! Looks like snow day #4 on Thursday! Thanks man... the timing has me concerned (where it may be out of here so quickly) but I'm hoping so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think I'm going to feel incredibly stupid for going so bullish, definitely thinking about backing off some once the GFS is done. I know I should wait for the Euro but I don't think I can stay on much longer...stupid back pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Made this last night at 3am....posted in the other thread. Leaving it be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Updated Dicussion: First off, lesson learned, when tracking this system over the past several days there was an incredible amount of model spread and some pretty wacky solutions given off by some of the models. Things looked weird and solutions looked weird, when you see something like this occur for days and days, and even within the final 24 hours leading up to an event you should never, ever go ballsy on a forecast...it's always best to go more conservative until otherwise a great deal of data suggest not to. Even at this current time there are quite a bit of conflicting going on within the models as one set of runs will so a track that is further west, while another model and another set of runs will show something east. This is making this an extremely challenging forecast to make. What will also make this more challenging is the fact that there will be a fast and sharp gradient in snowfall totals, this means a span of 30-50 miles or so can mean the difference between 4-8'' and 1-3''. This is why trying to gauge the exact track of the storm as accurate as possible is extremely important, however, given so much uncertainties within the models it's still a bit difficult to gauge. The smartest thing to do here would be to wait until one final 0z model, the Euro to come out and see what it says but unfortunately I will not be able to do that due to some issues. With all this said I have decided to trim back snowfall amounts. This will still be a fairly large storm, however. Forecast: Even timing this event is a rather difficult task but it does appear light snow will begin sometime mid to late afternoon with the heavier snow arriving overnight Wednesday into the early AM hours of Thursday, at the storm's worse there will be periods of extremely heavy snowfall with snowfall rates of 2-4'' per hour possible as some very strong lift works over portions of the region. The snow will also be rather wet in nature making it feel very heavy. This will also allow for the snow to easily stick to limbs and power lines meaning there will be potential for tree damage and widespread power outages...what will also enhance this issue is the potential for very strong winds, especially towards eastern MA and the coastal areas, here winds could gust to between 40-50 mph although some gusts up to 60 mph can't be ruled out either. The combination of heavy, wet snow and strong winds makes it fairly likely we will be dealing with power outages and tree damage tomorrow across portions of the region. The snow should begin to taper off early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Where to actually locate that 6-12" band was the toughest part. Everything else, easy. I choose to place it a bit NW of guidance just because of some of the most respected members here are having a tough time believing the storm will take a hard right turn east like modeled on some of todays runs. Also, it seems like some of the models are picking up on areas getting a bit more then modeled previously to today because of the current advance of precip already into CT at this time. This shows me the RUC might have some idea what is going on. Also, the GFS came in RUC like at 12z making me believe that is the perfect stripe of 6-12" at the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm in Riverhead, eastern Suffolk County, Long Island now and it has turned to light sleet with some fzra or rn mixed in. At times flakes get the upper hand when you get a heavier burst. 3 inches is down here from earlier. Should be an interesting ride home to about the Mid Hudson Valley ...then I guess I'll pass north of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Updated map: Discussion: Well even though the storm has began we have not even come close to seeing the worst of it here in our region, the bulk of the activity is still off to our SW where some intense snowfalls are occurring along with thunder and lightning. The system is going through rapid cyclogenesis and continues to rapidly strengthen as it works towards us here in southern New England. This storm has been broken into two parts, part one is just about done and dropped anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to as much as 4-5'' across parts of the region. Now that this is somewhat out of the way we can look more into part two. We are finally starting to see great model consensus as to what will occur with the second portion of the storm which will be impacting the area later this evening into the early morning hours of tomorrow. It is with this portion of the storm where things will become rather intense and dangerous outside. Luckily the worst will be during the overnight hours so there should be little in the way of traffic outside. Forecast: Recent model trends, radar, and satellite all suggest this storm will move a bit further west than previous thought, with further intensification going on within the storm and further strengthening expected it appears parts of the region may receive pretty close to a foot of snow, perhaps a few inches more. While the track has shifted some this storm will still have a very sharp gradient as far as snowfall totals, so any slight wobble in track could certainly have major impacts on these totals, especially the further west you go. Snow will begin again sometime around 9 PM or so, perhaps a bit earlier in SW CT, snow will quickly intensify in intensity and start to accumulate rather quickly. Snowfall rates of 1-2''/HR can be expected, although within the heaviest bands of snowfall rates of 3-4''/HR certainly can't be ruled out. Considering the number of thundersnow reports occurring to our southwest thundersnow across our region certainly can't be ruled out either so thunder and lightning is certainly a possibility. Some issues we will also have to contend with, especially for RI and eastern MA is the potential for very strong/damaging winds. Winds could gust to as high as 40-50 mph although gusts up to 60 mph can't be ruled out. These areas should also see snow that is much more heavy and wet in nature than areas further west. The combination of strong to damaging winds along with heavy, wet snow accumulating on tree limbs and power lines means there will be the potential for tree damage and widespread power outages. This will have to be watched rather closely. The snow should begin winding down tomorrow morning and will be out of the region by 2:00 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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