ILoveWinter
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Everything posted by ILoveWinter
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I’m generally not thrown off by the movement of op runs 4 or 5+ days out but the agreement with many of the ensembles at 12z was a bit concerning. Plenty of time though, and no reason to panic.
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Agreed, had hoped it was a fluke ops run thing that would be countered by the EPS mean.
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Let’s just wait for the ensembles/EPS, op runs are prone to volatility this far out
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Verbatim that ICON run was a borderline BECS (to me 30+ puts us within the range in our area). That’s why it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible!)
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Yea mostly earlier in the day, still was well below expectations
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Honestly tho it’s not even a sure thing even as the storm is upon us…Jan 2015 still gives me nightmares! That being said this has some tremendous potential and will admit I’m excited.
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Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news.
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Op runs this far out will always be more volatile. Ensemble means are the way.
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Patterns tend to be sticky, it’ll snow where it’s been snowing
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Won't venture to guess what we will end up with but I wouldn't call it light in the UWS right now
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Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?
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It’s been absolutely ripping near CPK for almost an hour now, streets covered
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Yes tho the NAM showed basically nil for CPK, this is at least 3 which is within Uptons range.
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Celebrating “victory” and the event is starting later this evening? You called for 0.7 at Central Park right? I don’t even think the NAM has it that low.
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We’ve seen both models miss badly so close to gametime, hopefully the HRRR is victorious
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I’m terrible at remembering specific events but I do recall a number of times where Upton was more aggressive than the model averages.
