I don't doubt that the vaccines are working, but not enough to show in these numbers. You're seeing a drop as we are coming off the holidays and people aren't having large get togethers like were happening during Thanksgiving, Xmas and New Years - that's what kept the numbers up through January... This drop was somewhat expected.
The real test will be into February, as this new variant that is more contagious and perhaps (unknown yet) more deadly. If we can fend that off, then I would believe that vaccinations play a bigger role.